Matt Dermody
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.3
WAR
Age 36
LHP
6'5" / 211 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.29
FIP4.29
xFIP5.91
SIERA5.87
K%23.1%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%14.5%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p5025.2%
K%
p1015.8%
xwOBA vs
p610.301
CT+1.1
FB-0.7
CH-1.2
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | 35 | 1 | 77 | 340 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 14.0% | 4.4% | 0.7% | 4.21 | 2.86 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 52 | 0 | 57 | 237 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 17.1% | 3.9% | 0.4% | 2.35 | 2.38 | +1.7 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 56 | 1 | 65 | 281 | 54 | 14 | 12 | 17.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.86 | 4.90 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 5 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.20 | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 15 | 0 | 23 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 19.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.48 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 21 | 13 | 80 | 351 | 71 | 19 | 11 | 17.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.92 | 4.22 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 11 | 10 | 53 | 233 | 53 | 12 | 9 | 21.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 3.93 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 35 | 13 | 5 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | BOS | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 22.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | BOS | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 196 | 25 | 362 | 1572 | 277 | 78 | 42 | 17.6% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.70 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 14 | 200 | 869 | 153 | 43 | 23 | 17.6% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.70 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Dermody (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 23.1% | 8.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.55 | 21.9% | 12.8% | 63 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Jerry Blevins L 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.98 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .235 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.66 | 166 | 78 |
| Neal Cotts L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.40 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .290 | 3.21 | 25.5% | 17.5% | 48 | -1.19 | 3.21 | 156 | 77 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.19 | 15.6% | 7.0% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.32 | 22.4% | 17.7% | 38 | +0.13 | 2.38 | 306 | 77 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2025 · 3.42 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.42 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 117 | 76 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.38 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 109 | 75 |
| Tony Sipp L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.20 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 0.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.19 | 195 | 74 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.03 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 3.1% | .260 | 4.12 | 19.3% | 9.8% | 56 | +0.09 | 3.99 | 405 | 72 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 14.5% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .308 | 5.15 | 17.8% | 2.7% | 19 | +0.81 | 4.28 | 159 | 72 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.57 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 395 | 71 |
| Marlon Arias L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.86 | 19.8% | 11.2% | 3.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 154 | 66 |
| Brandon Mann L 2024 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.59 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 1.0% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 190 | 63 |
| Jon Lester L 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.99 | 15.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .272 | 5.26 | 14.5% | 6.5% | 141 | +0.27 | 2.69 | 1,144 | 62 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.42 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 138 | 58 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.79 | 11.2% | 6.7% | 3.3% | .337 | 4.94 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 119 | +0.15 | 4.49 | 408 | 53 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 46 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.73 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 109 | 45 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2024 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.59 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 119 | 41 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 41 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 40 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 39 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.