Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 30 | 184 | 756 | 175 | 51 | 20 | 97% | 5.9 | 20.6% | 6.9% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 3.52 | 4.20 | +2.6 |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 31 | 30 | 184 | 756 | 175 | 51 | 20 | 97% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 6.7% | 16.4% | 2.6% | 3.52 | 3.44 | +4.2 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 33 | 33 | 197 | 811 | 167 | 40 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 4.9% | 15.7% | 3.6% | 3.65 | 3.95 | +3.4 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 33 | 33 | 197 | 811 | 167 | 40 | 30 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.6% | 4.9% | 15.7% | 3.7% | 3.65 | 3.99 | +3.2 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 133 | 594 | 123 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.5% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 2.7% | 4.60 | 3.92 | +2.3 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 133 | 594 | 123 | 50 | 17 | 100% | 5.3 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 12.3% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.04 | +2.1 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 11 | 9 | 36 | 156 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 82% | 3.3 | 10.9% | 10.4% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 3.47 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 11 | 9 | 36 | 156 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 82% | 3.3 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 3.47 | 4.09 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 18 | 86 | 362 | 75 | 30 | 23 | 90% | 4.3 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 12.1% | 6.9% | 5.78 | 6.19 | -1.1 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 18 | 86 | 362 | 75 | 30 | 23 | 90% | 4.3 | 20.7% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 6.4% | 5.78 | 5.89 | -0.8 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 99 | 434 | 92 | 28 | 26 | 95% | 4.7 | 19.0% | 6.7% | 12.3% | 6.1% | 5.62 | 5.68 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 99 | 434 | 92 | 28 | 26 | 95% | 4.7 | 21.2% | 6.5% | 14.7% | 6.0% | 5.62 | 5.50 | -0.1 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 21 | 119 | 502 | 111 | 31 | 19 | 72% | 4.1 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 13.2% | 3.8% | 5.54 | 4.37 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 21 | 119 | 502 | 111 | 31 | 19 | 72% | 4.1 | 22.1% | 6.2% | 15.9% | 3.8% | 5.54 | 4.09 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 14 | 13 | 68 | 313 | 41 | 32 | 14 | 93% | 4.8 | 11.5% | 10.7% | 0.8% | 4.6% | 6.92 | 6.00 | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 14 | 13 | 68 | 313 | 41 | 32 | 14 | 93% | 4.8 | 13.1% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 6.92 | 6.00 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 6 | 6 | 38 | 159 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | CLE | 5 | 5 | 33 | 139 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.6 | 18.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 4.99 | 5.17 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | CLE | 5 | 5 | 28 | 119 | 21 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.4% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.36 | 5.61 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | CLE | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.5% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 4.99 | 5.17 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | CLE | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 21 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.4% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.35 | 5.60 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 96 | 91 | 525 | 2250 | 459 | 156 | 91 | 95% | 5.5 | 20.4% | 6.9% | 13.5% | 4.0% | 4.58 | 4.47 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 35 | 200 | 857 | 175 | 59 | 35 | 95% | 5.5 | 20.4% | 6.9% | 13.5% | 4.0% | 4.58 | 4.47 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 184 | 169 | 922 | 3928 | 753 | 285 | 159 | 92% | 5.0 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 4.64 | 4.62 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 40 | 37 | 200 | 852 | 163 | 62 | 34 | 92% | 5.0 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 11.9% | 4.0% | 4.64 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jerad Eickhoff (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | — | 5.37 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 61 | +0.60 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2025 · 4.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.22 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 171 | 78 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.69 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 248 | 75 |
| Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 36 | SP | 3.95 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .303 | 3.72 | 20.7% | 14.3% | 444 | -0.23 | 2.03 | 1,127 | 72 |
| Walter Silva R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 38 | SP | 3.95 | 14.8% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.96 | 10.4% | 3.7% | 209 | +0.01 | 3.68 | 428 | 72 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.91 | 17.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | .337 | 5.13 | 17.0% | 5.7% | 82 | +0.22 | 3.49 | 869 | 72 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.35 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 138 | 70 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 70 |
| Scott Feldman R 2024 · 4.64 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.64 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 297 | 68 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2023 · 3.94 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 123 | 67 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.23 | 13.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 241 | 66 |
| Ryan Vogelsong R 2028 · 4.46 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.67 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 82 | +0.21 | 4.46 | 217 | 65 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2025 · 5.48 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.48 | 18.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | .254 | 5.90 | 16.3% | 5.1% | 115 | +0.42 | 2.98 | 407 | 65 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 64 |
| Jesse Estrada R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.91 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 257 | 64 |
| Alfredo Aceves R 2024 · 4.97 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.97 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.71 | 160 | 64 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.11 | 10.7% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 273 | 63 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.58 | 12.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 450 | 63 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.22 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 5.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 348 | 63 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 36 | SP | 5.02 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.48 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.54 | 4.48 | 156 | 63 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 567 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 33 | 18.6% | 10.1% | 1.38 | 4.99 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |