Julio Urías
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
Age 29
LHP
6'0" / 225 lbs
MLB
Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 115 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96106vR 115
ERA4.26
FIP4.37
K%23.4%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%15.8%
ROS IP115
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 115 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p4224.2%
K%
p6124.3%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
SL-0.7
CH-8.8
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 18 | 80 | 330 | 88 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.4% | 6.2% | 16.2% | 1.7% | 3.81 | 2.90 | — |
| 2015 | 18 | MIX | 4 levels | 18 | 18 | 80 | 330 | 88 | 22 | 5 | 100% | 4.5 | 26.7% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 1.5% | 3.81 | 2.54 | — |
| 2016 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 22 | 122 | 504 | 133 | 39 | 7 | 76% | 4.2 | 25.2% | 7.8% | 17.4% | 1.5% | 2.66 | 2.80 | +3.7 |
| 2016 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 22 | 122 | 504 | 133 | 39 | 7 | 76% | 4.2 | 26.4% | 7.7% | 18.7% | 1.4% | 2.66 | 2.62 | +4.0 |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 55 | 225 | 43 | 28 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 4.6% | 1.0% | 3.79 | 3.78 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 55 | 225 | 43 | 28 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 6.7% | 0.9% | 3.79 | 3.54 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 11 | 6 | 16 | 65 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 55% | 1.4 | 40.0% | 12.3% | 27.7% | 4.6% | 4.02 | 3.81 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 21 | MIX | 4 levels | 11 | 6 | 16 | 65 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 55% | 1.4 | 40.0% | 12.3% | 27.7% | 4.6% | 4.02 | 3.80 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 9 | 82 | 337 | 87 | 26 | 7 | 24% | 2.1 | 26.1% | 8.0% | 18.1% | 2.3% | 2.64 | 3.16 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 9 | 82 | 337 | 87 | 26 | 7 | 24% | 2.1 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 18.1% | 2.1% | 2.64 | 3.04 | +1.9 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 11 | 10 | 55 | 224 | 45 | 18 | 5 | 91% | 5.0 | 20.1% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 2.4% | 3.27 | 3.72 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 11 | 10 | 55 | 224 | 45 | 18 | 5 | 91% | 5.0 | 20.1% | 8.0% | 12.1% | 2.2% | 3.27 | 3.63 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 32 | 32 | 186 | 745 | 195 | 35 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.2% | 4.7% | 21.5% | 2.7% | 2.96 | 2.97 | +5.3 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 32 | 32 | 186 | 745 | 195 | 35 | 19 | 100% | 5.8 | 26.2% | 4.7% | 21.5% | 2.6% | 2.96 | 2.90 | +5.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 31 | 31 | 175 | 689 | 166 | 41 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.1% | 6.0% | 18.1% | 3.5% | 2.16 | 3.76 | +3.4 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 31 | 31 | 175 | 689 | 166 | 41 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.1% | 6.0% | 18.1% | 3.3% | 2.16 | 3.61 | +3.7 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 121 | 497 | 125 | 25 | 24 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.3% | 5.0% | 19.3% | 5.3% | 4.52 | 4.57 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 22 | 121 | 497 | 125 | 25 | 24 | 100% | 5.5 | 25.2% | 5.0% | 20.1% | 4.8% | 4.52 | 4.23 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 115 | 486 | 113 | 37 | 17 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 7.6% | 15.8% | 3.5% | 4.26 | 4.37 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 103 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 14.8% | 3.7% | 4.45 | 4.58 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 93 | 35 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 8.2% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 4.67 | 4.81 | +0.7 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 103 | 36 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 14.8% | 3.6% | 4.39 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 101 | 426 | 93 | 35 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 8.2% | 13.7% | 3.8% | 4.61 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 193 | 157 | 926 | 3799 | 907 | 259 | 116 | 81% | 4.8 | 23.9% | 6.8% | 17.1% | 3.1% | 3.43 | 3.63 | +19.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 34 | 200 | 821 | 196 | 56 | 25 | 81% | 4.8 | 23.9% | 6.8% | 17.1% | 3.1% | 3.43 | 3.63 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 203 | 161 | 891 | 3616 | 881 | 242 | 102 | 79% | 4.4 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.11 | 3.44 | +20.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 36 | 200 | 811 | 198 | 54 | 23 | 79% | 4.4 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.11 | 3.44 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Julio Urías (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.4% | 7.6% | 3.5% | — | 4.69 | 22.3% | 14.3% | 209 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2025 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.98 | 22.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 122 | 67 |
| J.A. Happ L 2029 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.28 | 21.1% | 5.7% | 2.2% | .308 | 3.72 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 518 | +0.44 | 3.28 | 1,053 | 65 |
| Everett Teaford L 2028 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 65 |
| Tomas Solis L 2029 · 4.35 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.35 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .264 | 5.50 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +1.15 | 4.35 | 327 | 64 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.59 | 3.60 | 190 | 64 |
| Travis Blackley L 2029 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | .324 | 4.50 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.47 | 3.84 | 225 | 63 |
| John Lamb L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.76 | 22.5% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 390 | 63 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2024 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 63 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.53 | 20.3% | 5.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.64 | 18.7% | 13.0% | 351 | +1.11 | 3.53 | 609 | 63 |
| James Gillheeney L 2024 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 129 | 63 |
| Yohan Flande L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.45 | 12.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.24 | 15.1% | 8.4% | 172 | -1.21 | 3.16 | 335 | 63 |
| Danny Duffy L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.59 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 3.5% | .301 | 4.33 | 22.6% | 14.1% | 248 | -0.26 | 3.29 | 915 | 62 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2029 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.6% | .301 | 4.61 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.10 | 4.24 | 445 | 62 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.53 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.42 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.11 | 3.06 | 240 | 61 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2025 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.72 | 23.3% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 372 | 61 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.29 | 16.1% | 8.1% | 4.6% | .308 | 5.56 | 10.9% | 2.7% | 70 | +0.27 | 4.17 | 368 | 60 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 60 |
| Carlos Teller L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.14 | 14.3% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .297 | 4.77 | 12.6% | 1.1% | 148 | -0.37 | 3.72 | 333 | 60 |
| Nico Tellache L 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.65 | 13.4% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 160 | 59 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.78 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 1.5% | .290 | 4.17 | 14.4% | 6.2% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.78 | 311 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 108 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 1.42 | 4.45 |
| Jerad Eickhoff ('19) | 4 | 109 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 1.43 | 4.12 |
| Kutter Crawford ('24) | 3 | 130 | 23.9% | 7.2% | 1.45 | 4.47 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Tyler Skaggs ('19) | 4 | 85 | 22.9% | 8.2% | 1.09 | 4.24 |