Julio Urías — OGILVIE

Julio Urías P Los Angeles Dodgers

Age 29 LHP 6'0" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 113

ERA4.22

FIP4.32

K%23.4%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%15.8%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p4224.2%

p6124.3%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

SL-0.7

CH-8.8

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	-$0.6M
Totals		$0.9M		$0.3M	-$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	18	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	18	80	330	88	22	5	100%	4.5	22.4%	6.2%	16.2%	1.7%	3.81	2.94	—
2015	18	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	18	80	330	88	22	5	100%	4.5	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	1.5%	3.81	2.54	—
2016	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	22	122	504	133	39	7	76%	4.2	25.2%	7.8%	17.4%	1.4%	2.66	2.74	+3.3
2016	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	22	122	504	133	39	7	76%	4.2	26.4%	7.7%	18.7%	1.4%	2.66	2.62	+3.5
2017	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	55	225	43	28	2	100%	5.0	17.4%	12.8%	4.6%	0.9%	3.79	3.75	+0.8
2017	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	55	225	43	28	2	100%	5.0	19.1%	12.4%	6.7%	0.9%	3.79	3.54	+0.9
2018	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	6	16	65	26	8	3	55%	1.4	40.0%	12.3%	27.7%	4.6%	4.02	3.81	+0.2
2018	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	11	6	16	65	26	8	3	55%	1.4	40.0%	12.3%	27.7%	4.6%	4.02	3.80	+0.2
2019	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	9	82	337	87	26	7	24%	2.1	26.1%	8.0%	18.1%	2.1%	2.64	3.04	+1.5
2019	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	9	82	337	87	26	7	24%	2.1	25.8%	7.7%	18.1%	2.1%	2.64	3.04	+1.5
2020	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	11	10	55	224	45	18	5	91%	5.0	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	2.1%	3.27	3.60	+0.9
2020	23	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	11	10	55	224	45	18	5	91%	5.0	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	2.2%	3.27	3.63	+0.8
2021	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	32	32	186	745	195	35	19	100%	5.8	26.2%	4.7%	21.5%	2.4%	2.96	2.83	+4.9
2021	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	32	32	186	745	195	35	19	100%	5.8	26.2%	4.7%	21.5%	2.6%	2.96	2.90	+4.7
2022	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	31	31	175	689	166	41	23	100%	5.6	24.1%	6.0%	18.1%	3.2%	2.16	3.58	+2.8
2022	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	31	31	175	689	166	41	23	100%	5.6	24.1%	6.0%	18.1%	3.3%	2.16	3.61	+2.7
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	121	497	125	25	24	100%	5.5	24.3%	5.0%	19.3%	4.8%	4.52	4.30	+0.9
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	121	497	125	25	24	100%	5.5	24.3%	5.0%	19.3%	4.8%	4.52	4.30	+0.9
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	121	497	125	25	24	100%	5.5	25.2%	5.0%	20.1%	4.8%	4.52	4.23	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			158	122	717	2917	710	188	84	77%	4.5	24.3%	6.4%	17.9%	2.9%	3.11	3.43	+12.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	LAD	2	2	10	42	10	3	1	100%	5.0	23.4%	7.6%	15.8%	3.4%	4.22	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	108	456	103	36	16	100%	6.0	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	3.6%	4.40	4.52	+0.5
2028	31	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	101	426	93	35	16	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	3.8%	4.61	4.75	+0.2
2029	32	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	93	394	83	34	16	100%	5.8	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	4.0%	4.85	5.01	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	LAD	18	18	108	456	103	36	17	100%	6.0	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	3.7%	4.48	4.60	+0.5
2028	31	MLB CTX	LAD	17	17	101	426	93	35	17	100%	5.9	21.9%	8.2%	13.7%	4.0%	4.70	4.84	+0.2
2029	32	MLB CTX	LAD	16	16	93	393	83	34	17	100%	5.8	21.1%	8.6%	12.5%	4.2%	4.94	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		208	172	1019	4193	990	293	134	83%	4.9	23.6%	7.0%	16.6%	3.2%	3.58	3.75	+14.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	34	200	823	194	58	26	83%	4.9	23.6%	7.0%	16.6%	3.2%	3.58	3.75	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		203	161	891	3616	881	242	94	79%	4.4	24.4%	6.7%	17.7%	2.6%	3.11	3.31	+13.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	36	200	811	198	54	21	79%	4.4	24.4%	6.7%	17.7%	2.6%	3.11	3.31	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Urías (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	23.4%	7.6%	3.4%	—	4.75	21.9%	13.7%	302	+0.43	—	—	—
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	66
J.A. Happ L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	32	SP	3.37	21.1%	5.7%	2.4%	.308	3.73	23.1%	15.9%	518	+0.36	3.37	1,053	65
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	65
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	64
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	64
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	64
Travis Blackley L 2015 · 4.91 FIP	32	SP-	4.91	15.4%	6.4%	4.2%	.324	4.45	10.5%	0.0%	137	-0.46	3.85	225	63
Wade LeBlanc L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	31	SP-	3.65	20.3%	5.3%	2.9%	.289	4.62	18.7%	13.0%	351	+0.97	3.65	609	63
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	63
Yohan Flande L 2015 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	12.9%	5.5%	3.6%	.289	3.27	15.1%	8.4%	172	-1.41	3.18	335	63
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.43	16.3%	8.9%	346	-0.44	3.70	569	63
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	62
Jo-Jo Reyes L 2015 · 3.51 FIP	30	SP	3.51	14.9%	6.4%	1.6%	.326	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	90	-0.20	3.01	240	62
Jonathon Niese L 2016 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP-	5.28	16.1%	8.1%	4.6%	.308	5.67	10.9%	2.7%	70	+0.39	4.16	368	61
Drew Smyly L 2019 · 5.49 FIP	30	SP	5.49	24.1%	10.3%	5.7%	.305	4.30	22.7%	16.0%	259	-1.19	2.00	840	61
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	60
Tyler Skaggs L 2019 · 3.64 FIP	28	SP	3.64	23.3%	8.4%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	372	60
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	60
Carlos Teller L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	14.3%	10.7%	2.9%	.297	4.74	12.6%	1.1%	148	-0.12	3.75	333	60
Christian Friedrich L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	29	SP	3.96	17.6%	8.8%	2.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	188	60

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	104	22.3%	8.0%	1.42	4.50
Tyler Skaggs ('19)	1.7	85	22.9%	8.2%	1.09	4.24
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Triston McKenzie ('24)	2.1	105	26.0%	9.4%	1.52	3.94
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37