Julio Urías
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
+1.3
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'0" / 225 lbs
MLB
Svc 10.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.3 · 2026
ERA4.42
FIP4.30
xFIP4.13
SIERA3.90
K%23.7%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%16.2%
IP115
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.3peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p2592.7
Whiff%
p4224.2%
K%
p6124.3%
xwOBA vs
p470.315
SL-0.7
CH-8.8
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 18 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 18 | 18 | 80 | 330 | 88 | 22 | 5 | 22.4% | 6.2% | 1.7% | 3.81 | 2.94 | +2.0 |
| 2016 | 19 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 29 | 22 | 122 | 504 | 133 | 39 | 7 | 25.2% | 7.8% | 1.5% | 2.66 | 2.78 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | 20 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 11 | 11 | 55 | 225 | 43 | 28 | 2 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 1.0% | 3.79 | 3.77 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 21 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 11 | 6 | 16 | 65 | 26 | 8 | 3 | — | — | — | 4.02 | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 38 | 9 | 82 | 337 | 87 | 26 | 7 | 26.1% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 2.64 | 3.00 | +2.0 |
| 2020 | 23 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 11 | 10 | 55 | 224 | 45 | 18 | 5 | 20.1% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 3.27 | 3.57 | +0.9 |
| 2021 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 32 | 32 | 186 | 745 | 195 | 35 | 19 | 26.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 2.96 | 2.65 | +5.6 |
| 2022 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 31 | 31 | 175 | 689 | 166 | 41 | 23 | 24.1% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.16 | 3.59 | +3.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 22 | 22 | 121 | 497 | 125 | 25 | 24 | 24.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.52 | 4.32 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 21 | 115 | 486 | 112 | 37 | 16 | 23.2% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.31 | 4.34 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 112 | 471 | 106 | 36 | 16 | 22.6% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.43 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 108 | 454 | 100 | 35 | 16 | 22.0% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 4.47 | 4.53 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 93 | 35 | 16 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 99 | 417 | 86 | 34 | 15 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 4.78 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 79 | 33 | 15 | 20.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 4.92 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 72 | 32 | 15 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 4.97 | 5.07 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 65 | 31 | 14 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 5.13 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 203 | 161 | 891 | 3616 | 881 | 242 | 92 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 3.11 | 3.28 | +20.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 36 | 200 | 811 | 198 | 54 | 21 | 24.4% | 6.7% | 2.5% | 3.11 | 3.28 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Julio Urías (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.2% | 7.6% | 3.4% | — | 4.53 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 322 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 72 |
| Tomas Solis L 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.0% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .264 | 5.13 | 12.0% | 3.7% | 159 | +0.96 | 4.17 | 327 | 71 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.44 | 17.9% | 8.2% | 3.3% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 454 | 70 |
| Travis Blackley L 2029 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.89 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .324 | 4.45 | 10.5% | 0.0% | 137 | -0.44 | 3.85 | 225 | 70 |
| Matt Whitehouse L 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 20.1% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 353 | 68 |
| Irwin Delgado L 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 1.2% | .345 | 4.75 | 15.6% | 6.1% | 89 | +1.25 | 3.50 | 383 | 67 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2029 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.79 | 13.7% | 6.2% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.73 | 10.9% | 4.2% | 217 | -0.06 | 4.33 | 445 | 67 |
| Mike Montgomery L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.67 | 16.1% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .300 | 5.25 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 108 | +1.58 | 3.50 | 764 | 66 |
| Everett Teaford L 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.43 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.43 | 103 | 66 |
| Edgar Olmos L 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.66 | 18.9% | 9.7% | 1.7% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 203 | 65 |
| James Gillheeney L 2024 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 64 |
| Chris O'Grady L 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.4% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 232 | 64 |
| Christian Friedrich L 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.86 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 188 | 64 |
| Kelvin Marte L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .300 | 5.25 | 12.0% | 1.2% | 71 | +0.49 | 3.44 | 360 | 64 |
| Alejandro Astorga L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.73 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 1.4% | .290 | 4.01 | 14.4% | 6.2% | 116 | +0.28 | 3.73 | 311 | 63 |
| Orlando Lara L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.15 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .348 | 4.07 | 14.2% | 7.2% | 230 | -0.08 | 3.83 | 426 | 63 |
| Nick Ramirez L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 3.1% | .284 | 3.42 | 20.5% | 13.1% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.93 | 478 | 63 |
| John Gast L 2023 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 63 |
| Matt Moore L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.66 | 18.3% | 8.5% | 3.7% | .334 | 5.48 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 92 | +0.82 | 2.83 | 845 | 62 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 62 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2016
Service 10.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $10M | +1.3 | $10M | +$0.7M |
| Totals | $10M | $10M | +$0.7M | ||