Braylon Doughty

P Lake County Captains

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 203 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.9 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP55OGV rank#14ETA2028MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ALynchburg Hil…	22	22	85	3.48	2.20	27.3%	6.4%	—	K 20.2% · BB 7.5% · FIP 3.01
2026	20	MIX2 levels	25	25	110	4.10	2.49	26.3%	5.3%	—	K 20.7% · BB 6.0% · FIP 3.26
2027PROJ	21	MLBCLE	1	1	4	3.73	3.73	21.7%	5.1%	0.1
2028PROJ51% MLB	22	MLBCLE	12	12	63	3.65	3.56	23.5%	5.0%	1.4
2029PROJ74% MLB	23	MLBCLE	20	20	105	3.54	3.44	24.5%	4.9%	2.5

Next 3 projected WAR 4.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$8M2033Arb-2$12M2034Arb-3$16M

Career WAR0.3 WAR median (P10 -1.1 / P90 33, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 67%

CompsMatt Tabor (age 21) · Jordan Johnson (age 21) · Braxton Bragg (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10496vR 88

ERA3.73

FIP3.73

K%21.7%

BB%5.1%

K-BB%16.6%

Proj IP93

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$117M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.5	$17M	+$17M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$20M	+$20M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.1	$21M	+$20M
2032	Arb-1	$8M	+3.3	$22M	+$17M
2033	Arb-2	$12M	+3.2	$19M	+$13M
2034	Arb-3	$16M	+3.0	$16M	+$8M
Totals		$39M		$115M	+$95M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	22	22	85	362	99	23	4	100%	3.9	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	1.2%	3.48	3.01	—
2025	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	22	22	85	362	99	23	4	100%	3.9	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	1.2%	3.48	3.01	—
2025	19	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	22	22	85	362	99	23	4	100%	3.9	27.3%	6.4%	21.0%	1.1%	3.48	2.20	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	110	468	123	25	8	100%	4.4	20.7%	6.0%	14.7%	2.1%	4.10	3.26	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	110	468	123	25	8	100%	4.4	20.7%	6.0%	14.7%	2.1%	4.10	3.26	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	110	468	123	25	8	100%	4.4	26.3%	5.3%	20.9%	1.7%	4.10	2.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CLE	1	1	4	17	4	1	0	100%	4.0	21.7%	5.1%	16.6%	2.6%	3.73	3.73	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	122	515	121	26	13	100%	5.1	23.5%	5.0%	18.5%	2.6%	3.65	3.56	+2.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	CLE	27	27	142	600	147	29	15	100%	5.3	24.5%	4.9%	19.6%	2.6%	3.54	3.44	+3.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	142	600	151	29	15	100%	5.7	25.1%	4.8%	20.3%	2.6%	3.46	3.38	+3.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	140	591	151	28	15	100%	5.8	25.5%	4.8%	20.8%	2.6%	3.39	3.34	+3.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	141	594	153	28	15	100%	6.1	25.7%	4.7%	21.0%	2.6%	3.34	3.31	+3.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	138	583	150	28	15	100%	6.0	25.7%	4.8%	20.9%	2.6%	3.35	3.35	+3.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	133	561	143	28	15	100%	6.0	25.6%	4.9%	20.7%	2.7%	3.40	3.43	+3.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	125	527	133	27	15	100%	5.9	25.4%	5.2%	20.2%	2.9%	3.50	3.57	+2.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	114	482	120	26	15	100%	6.0	25.0%	5.5%	19.5%	3.1%	3.65	3.74	+2.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	102	432	106	25	14	100%	6.0	24.6%	5.8%	18.8%	3.3%	3.83	3.95	+1.8
2038	32	MLB MLE	CLE	15	15	90	380	92	24	13	100%	6.0	24.1%	6.2%	17.9%	3.5%	4.03	4.17	+1.3
2039	33	MLB MLE	CLE	13	13	78	329	78	22	13	100%	6.0	23.6%	6.7%	17.0%	3.8%	4.26	4.42	+0.9
2040	34	MLB MLE	CLE	11	11	67	282	65	20	12	100%	6.1	23.1%	7.2%	15.9%	4.1%	4.52	4.70	+0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	63	266	62	13	7	100%	5.2	23.5%	5.0%	18.5%	2.6%	3.65	3.56	+1.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	105	443	109	22	11	100%	5.2	24.5%	4.9%	19.6%	2.6%	3.54	3.44	+2.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	119	502	126	24	13	100%	5.7	25.1%	4.8%	20.3%	2.6%	3.46	3.38	+2.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	124	524	134	25	13	100%	5.9	25.5%	4.8%	20.8%	2.6%	3.39	3.34	+3.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	CLE	22	22	129	545	140	26	14	100%	5.9	25.7%	4.7%	21.0%	2.6%	3.34	3.31	+3.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	128	540	139	26	14	100%	6.1	25.7%	4.8%	20.9%	2.6%	3.35	3.35	+3.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	124	524	134	26	14	100%	5.9	25.6%	4.9%	20.7%	2.7%	3.40	3.43	+3.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	CLE	20	20	118	498	126	26	14	100%	5.9	25.4%	5.2%	20.2%	2.9%	3.50	3.57	+2.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	108	456	114	25	14	100%	6.0	25.0%	5.5%	19.5%	3.1%	3.65	3.74	+2.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	CLE	16	16	97	410	101	24	13	100%	6.1	24.6%	5.8%	18.8%	3.3%	3.83	3.95	+1.7
2038	32	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	86	363	88	23	13	100%	6.1	24.1%	6.2%	17.9%	3.5%	4.03	4.17	+1.2
2039	33	MLB CTX	CLE	12	12	74	312	74	21	12	100%	6.2	23.6%	6.7%	17.0%	3.8%	4.25	4.41	+0.8
2040	34	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	60	253	59	18	10	100%	6.0	23.1%	7.2%	15.9%	4.1%	4.51	4.69	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		229	229	1336	5640	1406	298	164	100%	5.8	24.9%	5.3%	19.7%	2.9%	3.61	3.26	+35.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	211	45	25	100%	5.8	24.9%	5.3%	19.7%	2.9%	3.61	3.26	+5.3
Career	—	MLE		47	47	195	830	170	55	14	100%	4.1	20.5%	6.6%	13.8%	1.7%	3.83	3.15	+32.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	851	174	57	15	100%	4.1	20.5%	6.6%	13.8%	1.7%	3.83	3.15	+4.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 60 IPFIP 2.05 → 2.92 (+0.87)K% 29.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.25%	—	×0.770	22.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.150	5.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.58%	÷1.000	×1.250	1.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.05 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 50 IPFIP 3.02 → 3.67 (+0.65)K% 22.8% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.79%	—	×0.810	18.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.51%	—	×1.100	7.16%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.23%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 85 IPFIP 2.20 → 3.01 (+0.80)K% 27.3% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.35%	—	×0.740	20.24%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.35%	—	×1.180	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷1.184	×1.300	1.21%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 3.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braylon Doughty (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	3.46	24.4%	19.5%	406	-0.27	—	—	—
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	93
Jordan Johnson R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	21	SP	2.93	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.00	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.07	2.93	443	84
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	83
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	82
Connor Lunn R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	18.9%	4.7%	2.9%	.310	4.64	16.5%	10.0%	212	+0.97	3.67	332	82
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.91	23.3%	17.7%	415	-0.05	3.15	521	82
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	82
Pierson Ohl R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	22	SP	2.89	19.9%	4.1%	1.7%	.350	3.95	17.8%	13.8%	326	+1.06	2.89	417	81
Carlo Reyes R 2019 · 2.88 FIP	21	SP	2.88	19.8%	6.6%	1.1%	.300	4.15	22.7%	13.3%	106	+1.27	2.60	229	81
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	81
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	81
Aaron Phillips R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	21	SP	3.96	20.7%	4.4%	3.7%	.290	5.22	13.7%	3.6%	188	+1.26	3.96	289	81
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	80
Richard Fitts R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	22	SP	4.09	22.0%	5.3%	4.0%	.271	4.56	19.7%	12.2%	362	+0.47	2.91	489	80
McCade Brown R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	23.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.349	4.50	24.1%	12.2%	117	+0.45	3.99	207	80
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.59	21.9%	14.0%	181	+0.37	3.22	270	80
Xzavion Curry R 2021 · 3.41 FIP	23	SP	3.41	24.6%	5.1%	3.2%	.247	4.97	18.4%	10.8%	320	+1.56	3.41	558	79
Domingo Acevedo R 2016 · 3.07 FIP	22	SP	3.07	20.7%	6.9%	1.6%	.324	4.12	19.8%	12.5%	249	+1.05	2.14	474	79
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	79
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.49	15.0%	7.2%	236	+1.29	3.05	420	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.1	116	24.7%	5.2%	1.11	3.62
John Candelaria ('75-'93, 42 WAR*)	12.6	140	22.5%*	5.7%*	1.34*	3.73*
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Danny Darwin ('78-'98, 36 WAR*)	15.1	151	20.5%*	6.7%*	1.21*	4.02*
Jeff Samardzija ('20)	8.2	150	21.0%	7.1%	1.12	4.15
Marty Pattin ('68-'80, 21 WAR*)	10.2	157	19.9%*	6.9%*	1.34*	4.16*