Braylon Doughty — OGILVIE

Braylon Doughty P Lake County Captains

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 203 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.5 · 2032

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 93 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 88

ERA3.76

FIP3.76

K%21.6%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%16.3%

ROS IP93

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$96M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL5560

CMD4060

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$15M	+$14M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$18M	+$17M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.0	$20M	+$19M
2032	Arb-1	$9M	+3.1	$20M	+$14M
2033	Arb-2	$15M	+3.0	$17M	+$9M
2034	Arb-3	$21M	+2.8	$14M	+$4M
Totals		$48M		$104M	+$79M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	22	22	85	362	99	23	4	100%	3.9	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	1.2%	3.48	3.01	—
2025	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	22	22	85	362	99	23	4	100%	3.9	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	1.2%	3.48	3.01	—
2025	19	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	22	22	85	362	99	23	4	100%	3.9	27.3%	6.4%	21.0%	1.1%	3.48	2.20	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	110	468	123	25	8	100%	4.4	20.7%	6.0%	14.7%	2.1%	4.10	3.26	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	110	468	123	25	8	100%	4.4	20.7%	6.0%	14.7%	2.1%	4.10	3.26	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	110	468	123	25	8	100%	4.4	26.3%	5.3%	20.9%	1.7%	4.10	2.49	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	CLE	19	19	93	393	85	21	10	100%	4.9	21.6%	5.3%	16.3%	2.6%	3.76	3.76	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CLE	27	27	140	589	137	30	15	100%	5.2	23.3%	5.1%	18.2%	2.6%	3.67	3.58	+2.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	CLE	33	33	175	739	180	37	19	100%	5.3	24.3%	5.0%	19.3%	2.6%	3.57	3.47	+3.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	CLE	32	32	179	757	189	37	19	100%	5.6	24.9%	4.9%	20.0%	2.6%	3.49	3.41	+3.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	CLE	31	31	180	760	192	37	19	100%	5.8	25.3%	4.9%	20.4%	2.6%	3.42	3.37	+3.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	CLE	30	30	180	760	194	37	19	100%	6.0	25.5%	4.8%	20.7%	2.6%	3.37	3.34	+3.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	CLE	30	30	177	749	191	37	20	100%	5.9	25.5%	4.9%	20.6%	2.6%	3.38	3.38	+3.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	CLE	29	29	172	726	184	37	20	100%	5.9	25.4%	5.0%	20.3%	2.7%	3.43	3.46	+3.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	CLE	27	27	164	694	174	36	20	100%	6.1	25.1%	5.2%	19.9%	2.9%	3.53	3.60	+2.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	CLE	26	26	154	652	162	36	20	100%	5.9	24.8%	5.5%	19.2%	3.1%	3.68	3.77	+2.1
2037	31	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	144	608	148	36	20	100%	6.0	24.4%	5.9%	18.5%	3.3%	3.86	3.97	+1.6
2038	32	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	133	562	135	35	20	100%	6.1	23.9%	6.3%	17.6%	3.5%	4.06	4.20	+1.1
2039	33	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	122	516	121	35	20	100%	6.1	23.4%	6.8%	16.7%	3.8%	4.29	4.45	+0.6
2040	34	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	111	470	107	34	19	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.2%	15.6%	4.1%	4.55	4.72	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	69	291	68	15	8	100%	4.9	23.3%	5.1%	18.2%	2.6%	3.67	3.58	+1.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	CLE	24	24	128	540	132	27	14	100%	5.3	24.3%	5.0%	19.3%	2.6%	3.57	3.47	+2.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	CLE	27	27	149	629	157	31	16	100%	5.5	24.9%	4.9%	20.0%	2.6%	3.49	3.41	+2.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	CLE	27	27	159	671	170	33	17	100%	5.9	25.3%	4.9%	20.4%	2.6%	3.42	3.37	+3.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	CLE	27	27	164	692	177	33	18	100%	6.1	25.5%	4.8%	20.7%	2.6%	3.37	3.34	+3.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	CLE	27	27	164	692	177	34	18	100%	6.1	25.5%	4.9%	20.6%	2.6%	3.38	3.38	+3.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	CLE	27	27	161	680	172	34	18	100%	6.0	25.4%	5.0%	20.3%	2.7%	3.43	3.46	+2.8
2035	29	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	156	659	166	35	19	100%	6.0	25.1%	5.2%	19.9%	2.9%	3.53	3.60	+2.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	CLE	24	24	147	621	154	34	19	100%	6.1	24.8%	5.5%	19.2%	3.1%	3.68	3.77	+2.0
2037	31	MLB CTX	CLE	23	23	137	578	141	34	19	100%	6.0	24.4%	5.9%	18.5%	3.3%	3.86	3.97	+1.5
2038	32	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	127	536	128	34	19	100%	6.0	23.9%	6.3%	17.6%	3.5%	4.06	4.20	+1.0
2039	33	MLB CTX	CLE	19	19	116	490	115	33	19	100%	6.1	23.4%	6.8%	16.7%	3.8%	4.28	4.44	+0.6
2040	34	MLB CTX	CLE	17	17	101	426	98	31	18	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.2%	15.6%	4.1%	4.54	4.71	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		303	303	1777	7503	1852	407	221	100%	5.9	24.7%	5.4%	19.3%	2.9%	3.67	3.32	+34.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	208	46	25	100%	5.9	24.7%	5.4%	19.3%	2.9%	3.67	3.32	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		47	47	195	830	170	55	14	100%	4.1	20.5%	6.6%	13.8%	1.7%	3.83	3.15	+29.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		48	48	200	851	174	57	15	100%	4.1	20.5%	6.6%	13.8%	1.7%	3.83	3.15	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braylon Doughty (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.76	21.6%	5.3%	2.6%	—	3.48	24.3%	19.3%	494	-0.28	—	—	—
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	94
Jordan Johnson R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	21	SP	2.93	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.00	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.07	2.93	443	84
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	83
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	83
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	82
Connor Lunn R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	18.9%	4.7%	2.9%	.310	4.64	16.5%	10.0%	212	+0.97	3.67	332	82
Carlo Reyes R 2019 · 2.88 FIP	21	SP	2.88	19.8%	6.6%	1.1%	.300	4.15	22.7%	13.3%	106	+1.27	2.60	229	82
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	81
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.91	23.3%	17.7%	415	-0.05	3.15	521	81
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	81
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	81
Pierson Ohl R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	22	SP	2.89	19.9%	4.1%	1.7%	.350	3.95	17.8%	13.8%	326	+1.06	2.89	417	81
Aaron Phillips R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	21	SP	3.96	20.7%	4.4%	3.7%	.290	5.22	13.7%	3.6%	188	+1.26	3.96	289	80
McCade Brown R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	23.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.349	4.50	24.1%	12.2%	117	+0.45	3.99	207	80
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.59	21.9%	14.0%	181	+0.37	3.22	270	80
Richard Fitts R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	22	SP	4.09	22.0%	5.3%	4.0%	.271	4.56	19.7%	12.2%	362	+0.47	2.91	489	80
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	362	-0.39	3.82	579	80
Domingo Acevedo R 2016 · 3.07 FIP	22	SP	3.07	20.7%	6.9%	1.6%	.324	4.12	19.8%	12.5%	249	+1.05	2.14	474	80
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	80
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	9.1%	183	+0.79	3.38	269	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.6	152	24.5%	5.4%	1.13	3.67
David Price ('22)	10.7	165	23.6%	6.4%	0.93	3.32
Corey Kluber ('23)	8.2	149	25.8%	5.5%	0.97	3.44
Curt Schilling ('07)	16.2	180	23.6%	5.3%	0.95	3.42
Johan Santana ('12)	10.1	169	24.1%	6.9%	0.98	3.20
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81
Madison Bumgarner ('23) AS×4SS	11.0	170	22.8%	6.0%	1.05	3.47