Braylon Doughty — OGILVIE

Braylon Doughty P Lake County Captains

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 203 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.6 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91

ERA3.93

FIP3.93

K%21.6%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%15.2%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 137 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4560

CMD4560

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Arb-1	$9M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$15M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$20M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$13M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	22	22	85	362	99	23	4	100%	3.9	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	1.0%	3.48	2.92	—
2025	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	22	22	85	362	99	23	4	100%	3.9	27.3%	6.4%	21.0%	1.1%	3.48	2.20	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	AA	Akron RubberDucks	17	17	73	315	88	16	4	100%	4.3	21.7%	5.8%	15.9%	1.6%	3.72	2.87	+1.7
ROS	20	MLB	CLE	14	14	65	274	59	18	7	100%	4.6	21.6%	6.5%	15.2%	2.7%	3.93	3.93	+0.5
ROS	20	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.6%	6.5%	15.2%	2.7%	3.93	3.93	—
2026 TOT	20	MLB	CLE	—	—	137	589	147	34	11	—	—	25.0%	5.7%	19.3%	1.9%	3.82	3.37	+3.3
2026 FULL	20	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	1	0	0	0	—	—	21.7%	6.5%	15.2%	2.7%	3.93	3.55	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	CLE	26	26	128	543	123	35	14	100%	4.9	22.6%	6.4%	16.2%	2.6%	3.88	3.83	+2.4
2028	22	MLB	CLE	33	33	171	722	172	44	19	100%	5.2	23.8%	6.1%	17.7%	2.6%	3.77	3.67	+3.5
2029	23	MLB	CLE	33	33	175	739	181	43	19	100%	5.3	24.5%	5.9%	18.7%	2.6%	3.66	3.57	+3.7
2030	24	MLB	CLE	32	32	179	757	190	43	19	100%	5.6	25.0%	5.7%	19.4%	2.6%	3.56	3.49	+4.0
2031	25	MLB	CLE	31	31	180	760	193	42	19	100%	5.8	25.4%	5.5%	19.9%	2.5%	3.48	3.43	+4.1
2032	26	MLB	CLE	30	30	180	760	195	42	19	100%	6.0	25.6%	5.5%	20.1%	2.5%	3.44	3.41	+4.2
2033	27	MLB	CLE	30	30	177	749	192	42	19	100%	5.9	25.6%	5.6%	20.0%	2.6%	3.44	3.45	+4.0
2034	28	MLB	CLE	29	29	172	726	185	42	20	100%	5.9	25.5%	5.7%	19.8%	2.7%	3.50	3.53	+3.8
2035	29	MLB	CLE	27	27	164	694	175	41	20	100%	6.1	25.3%	6.0%	19.3%	2.8%	3.60	3.66	+3.3
2036	30	MLB	CLE	26	26	154	652	162	41	20	100%	5.9	24.9%	6.3%	18.6%	3.0%	3.75	3.84	+2.8
2037	31	MLB	CLE	24	24	144	608	149	40	20	100%	6.0	24.5%	6.6%	17.9%	3.3%	3.93	4.04	+2.3
2038	32	MLB	CLE	22	22	133	562	135	39	20	100%	6.1	24.1%	7.0%	17.0%	3.5%	4.13	4.27	+1.8
2039	33	MLB	CLE	20	20	122	516	122	39	20	100%	6.1	23.6%	7.5%	16.1%	3.8%	4.36	4.52	+1.3
2027	21	MLB	CLE	13	13	63	266	60	17	7	100%	4.8	22.6%	6.4%	16.2%	2.6%	3.88	3.83	+0.6
2028	22	MLB	CLE	25	25	125	528	126	32	14	100%	5.0	23.8%	6.1%	17.7%	2.6%	3.77	3.67	+2.5
2029	23	MLB	CLE	28	28	148	625	153	37	16	100%	5.3	24.5%	5.9%	18.7%	2.6%	3.66	3.57	+3.2
2030	24	MLB	CLE	29	29	160	676	169	38	17	100%	5.5	25.0%	5.7%	19.4%	2.6%	3.56	3.49	+3.6
2031	25	MLB	CLE	28	28	165	697	177	39	18	100%	5.9	25.4%	5.5%	19.9%	2.5%	3.48	3.43	+3.8
2032	26	MLB	CLE	28	28	168	709	182	39	18	100%	6.0	25.6%	5.5%	20.1%	2.5%	3.44	3.41	+3.9
2033	27	MLB	CLE	28	28	168	709	182	40	18	100%	6.0	25.6%	5.6%	20.0%	2.6%	3.44	3.45	+3.8
2034	28	MLB	CLE	27	27	163	688	175	40	19	100%	6.0	25.5%	5.7%	19.8%	2.7%	3.50	3.53	+3.6
2035	29	MLB	CLE	26	26	156	659	166	39	19	100%	6.0	25.3%	6.0%	19.3%	2.8%	3.60	3.66	+3.2
2036	30	MLB	CLE	24	24	147	621	155	39	19	100%	6.1	24.9%	6.3%	18.6%	3.0%	3.75	3.84	+2.7
2037	31	MLB	CLE	23	23	137	578	142	38	19	100%	6.0	24.5%	6.6%	17.9%	3.3%	3.93	4.04	+2.2
2038	32	MLB	CLE	21	21	127	536	129	38	19	100%	6.0	24.1%	7.0%	17.0%	3.5%	4.13	4.27	+1.7
2039	33	MLB	CLE	19	19	116	490	115	37	19	100%	6.1	23.6%	7.5%	16.1%	3.8%	4.35	4.51	+1.2
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			319	319	1843	7783	1932	472	220	100%	5.8	24.8%	6.1%	18.8%	2.8%	3.69	3.33	+44.7
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	210	51	24	100%	5.8	24.8%	6.1%	18.8%	2.8%	3.69	3.33	+4.9
Career	—			39	39	158	677	142	45	9	100%	4.1	20.9%	6.7%	14.2%	1.3%	3.59	2.89	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—			49	49	200	857	179	57	11	100%	4.1	20.9%	6.7%	14.2%	1.3%	3.59	2.89	+5.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braylon Doughty (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.93	21.6%	6.5%	2.7%	—	3.68	23.7%	17.7%	474	-0.25	—	—	—
Matt Tabor R 2027 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP	3.57	19.8%	5.0%	2.8%	.287	5.84	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.27	3.57	203	90
Christian Zazueta R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	20	SP	3.80	22.0%	7.0%	3.0%	.277	3.55	28.6%	22.7%	66	-0.25	3.55	276	88
Jaden Hamm R 2027 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP	4.01	23.5%	8.9%	3.2%	.273	4.70	17.1%	7.3%	83	+0.69	4.01	182	87
Khal Stephen R 2028 · 3.05 FIP	22	SP	3.05	20.6%	5.7%	1.8%	.284	4.72	16.9%	6.1%	55	+1.67	3.05	158	86
Garrett Burhenn R 2028 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	21.1%	7.7%	3.5%	.333	4.44	16.9%	8.8%	341	+0.25	4.19	433	85
Carlo Reyes R 2027 · 2.88 FIP	21	SP	2.88	19.8%	6.6%	1.1%	.300	4.18	22.7%	13.3%	106	+1.30	2.79	229	84
Jordan Johnson R 2027 · 2.91 FIP	21	SP	2.91	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.12	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.21	2.91	443	84
Cody Morris R 2028 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	21.6%	8.1%	3.1%	.362	2.86	31.1%	20.9%	96	-1.14	2.26	256	83
Cade Horton R 2027 · 3.09 FIP	21	SP	3.09	26.0%	8.8%	1.9%	.273	3.57	22.0%	13.7%	181	+0.48	3.09	270	83
Cedric De Grandpre R 2027 · 3.37 FIP	21	SP	3.37	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.12	24.1%	9.1%	132	+0.75	3.37	219	82
Austin Gordon R 2028 · 4.70 FIP	22	SP	4.70	19.5%	8.3%	4.0%	.315	5.46	17.4%	7.9%	75	+0.76	4.70	159	82
Cory Lewis R 2028 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	21.7%	9.3%	1.7%	.267	5.26	21.4%	5.2%	183	+1.87	3.39	284	81
Peniel Otano R 2026 · 3.06 FIP	20	SP	3.06	19.3%	7.4%	1.2%	.307	4.65	14.6%	-1.0%	176	+1.59	3.06	232	81
Braxton Bragg R 2029 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP	3.78	22.3%	6.4%	3.2%	.325	2.47	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.31	2.47	155	81
Mason Black R 2028 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP	3.81	22.3%	9.0%	2.6%	.297	4.81	21.5%	10.4%	364	+1.00	3.81	527	81
Logan Workman R 2029 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP	4.30	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.81	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.49	3.73	540	81
Drew Anderson R 2028 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP	3.54	21.1%	9.2%	1.9%	.295	4.74	16.3%	7.6%	273	+1.20	3.11	506	80
Austin Cates R 2028 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP	3.75	19.7%	9.0%	2.1%	.266	5.12	17.3%	3.2%	73	+1.37	3.75	183	80
Mason Englert R 2027 · 3.43 FIP	21	SP	3.43	19.5%	9.0%	1.5%	.311	4.67	22.3%	15.1%	249	+1.24	2.77	461	80
Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	155	24.6%	6.1%	1.09	3.71
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Zack Greinke ('23) CYAS×6GG×6SS×2HOF	9	169	21.2%	4.8%	1.10	3.42
Corey Kluber ('23)	8	149	26.1%	5.4%	1.05	3.48
Madison Bumgarner ('22) AS×4SS	8	155	22.7%	5.9%	1.23	3.70