Braylon Doughty — OGILVIE

Braylon Doughty P Lake County Captains

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 203 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 2.7 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION104 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.93

FIP3.93

K%21.6%

BB%6.3%

K-BB%15.3%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 112 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$110M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5055

CTRL4560

CMD4560

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.5	$16M	+$15M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.7	$17M	+$16M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.9	$17M	+$17M
2032	Arb-1	$9M	+3.0	$17M	+$12M
2033	Arb-2	$15M	+3.0	$16M	+$9M
2034	Arb-3	$20M	+2.7	$12M	+$4M
Totals		$47M		$96M	+$73M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	22	22	85	362	99	23	4	100%	3.9	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	1.2%	3.48	3.01	—
2025	19	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	22	22	85	362	99	23	4	100%	3.9	20.2%	7.5%	12.7%	1.2%	3.48	3.01	—
2025	19	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	22	22	85	362	99	23	4	100%	3.9	27.3%	6.4%	21.0%	1.1%	3.48	2.20	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	24	24	104	445	114	25	7	100%	4.3	20.1%	6.3%	13.8%	1.9%	3.88	3.26	—
YTD	20	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	24	24	104	445	114	25	7	100%	4.3	20.1%	6.3%	13.8%	1.9%	3.88	3.26	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A+ RAW	CLE	14	14	60	253	74	11	4	100%	4.3	29.2%	4.3%	24.9%	1.6%	3.02	2.05	—
2026	20	AA RAW	CLE	10	10	45	192	40	14	3	100%	4.5	20.8%	7.3%	13.5%	1.6%	5.04	3.12	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	CLE	2	2	8	32	7	2	1	100%	3.8	21.6%	6.3%	15.3%	2.7%	3.93	3.93	+0.1
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	112	477	121	27	8	—	—	25.4%	5.7%	19.7%	1.6%	3.89	3.31	+2.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CLE	29	29	141	597	135	37	16	100%	4.9	22.6%	6.2%	16.3%	2.7%	3.88	3.83	+1.8
2028	22	MLB MLE	CLE	33	33	175	739	176	44	19	100%	5.3	23.8%	6.0%	17.8%	2.6%	3.76	3.67	+2.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	CLE	33	33	180	760	186	44	20	100%	5.5	24.5%	5.7%	18.8%	2.6%	3.65	3.56	+2.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	CLE	32	32	180	760	190	42	20	100%	5.6	25.0%	5.6%	19.5%	2.6%	3.56	3.49	+3.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	CLE	31	31	180	760	193	41	20	100%	5.8	25.4%	5.4%	20.0%	2.6%	3.48	3.43	+3.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	CLE	30	30	180	760	195	41	20	100%	6.0	25.6%	5.4%	20.2%	2.6%	3.44	3.41	+3.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	CLE	30	30	177	749	192	41	20	100%	5.9	25.6%	5.5%	20.1%	2.6%	3.44	3.45	+3.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	CLE	29	29	172	726	185	41	20	100%	5.9	25.5%	5.6%	19.9%	2.7%	3.49	3.53	+2.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	CLE	27	27	164	694	175	41	20	100%	6.1	25.3%	5.9%	19.4%	2.9%	3.59	3.66	+2.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	CLE	26	26	154	652	162	40	20	100%	5.9	24.9%	6.2%	18.8%	3.1%	3.74	3.84	+2.0
2037	31	MLB MLE	CLE	24	24	144	608	149	40	20	100%	6.0	24.5%	6.5%	18.0%	3.3%	3.92	4.04	+1.5
2038	32	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	133	562	135	39	20	100%	6.1	24.1%	6.9%	17.2%	3.5%	4.13	4.27	+1.0
2039	33	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	122	516	122	38	20	100%	6.1	23.6%	7.4%	16.2%	3.8%	4.36	4.52	+0.5
2027	21	MLB CTX	CLE	14	14	70	296	67	18	8	100%	5.0	22.6%	6.2%	16.3%	2.7%	3.88	3.83	+0.9
2028	22	MLB CTX	CLE	25	25	128	540	129	32	14	100%	5.1	23.8%	6.0%	17.8%	2.6%	3.76	3.67	+1.9
2029	23	MLB CTX	CLE	28	28	152	642	157	37	17	100%	5.4	24.5%	5.7%	18.8%	2.6%	3.65	3.56	+2.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	CLE	29	29	160	676	169	38	17	100%	5.5	25.0%	5.6%	19.5%	2.6%	3.56	3.49	+2.7
2031	25	MLB CTX	CLE	28	28	165	697	177	38	18	100%	5.9	25.4%	5.4%	20.0%	2.6%	3.48	3.43	+2.9
2032	26	MLB CTX	CLE	28	28	168	709	182	38	18	100%	6.0	25.6%	5.4%	20.2%	2.6%	3.44	3.41	+3.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	CLE	28	28	168	709	182	39	19	100%	6.0	25.6%	5.5%	20.1%	2.6%	3.44	3.45	+3.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	CLE	27	27	163	688	175	39	19	100%	6.0	25.5%	5.6%	19.9%	2.7%	3.49	3.53	+2.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	CLE	26	26	156	659	166	39	19	100%	6.0	25.3%	5.9%	19.4%	2.9%	3.59	3.66	+2.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	CLE	24	24	147	621	155	38	19	100%	6.1	24.9%	6.2%	18.8%	3.1%	3.74	3.84	+1.9
2037	31	MLB CTX	CLE	23	23	137	578	142	38	19	100%	6.0	24.5%	6.5%	18.0%	3.3%	3.92	4.04	+1.4
2038	32	MLB CTX	CLE	21	21	127	536	129	37	19	100%	6.0	24.1%	6.9%	17.2%	3.5%	4.13	4.27	+0.9
2039	33	MLB CTX	CLE	19	19	116	490	115	36	19	100%	6.1	23.6%	7.4%	16.2%	3.8%	4.35	4.51	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		322	322	1857	7841	1946	467	224	100%	5.8	24.8%	5.9%	18.9%	2.9%	3.69	3.32	+36.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	210	50	24	100%	5.8	24.8%	5.9%	18.9%	2.9%	3.69	3.32	+3.9
Career	—	MLE		46	46	190	807	163	55	13	100%	4.1	20.2%	6.8%	13.3%	1.6%	3.70	3.15	+30.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	49	200	851	172	58	14	100%	4.1	20.2%	6.8%	13.3%	1.6%	3.70	3.15	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braylon Doughty (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.93	21.6%	6.3%	2.7%	—	3.68	23.7%	17.8%	496	-0.25	—	—	—
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	90
Jordan Johnson R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	21	SP	2.93	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.00	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.07	2.93	443	84
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	84
Carlo Reyes R 2019 · 2.88 FIP	21	SP	2.88	19.8%	6.6%	1.1%	.300	4.15	22.7%	13.3%	106	+1.27	2.60	229	83
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	83
Owen Murphy R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	19	SP	4.20	22.0%	9.9%	3.1%	.325	4.03	22.8%	13.3%	186	-0.17	2.78	275	83
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	83
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	8.9%	177	+0.79	3.38	264	82
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	81
McCade Brown R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	23.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.349	4.50	24.1%	12.2%	117	+0.45	3.99	207	81
Mason Black R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	22.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.297	4.67	20.7%	10.8%	364	+0.72	3.95	567	81
Peniel Otano R 2021 · 3.06 FIP	20	SP	3.06	19.3%	7.4%	1.2%	.307	4.67	14.6%	-1.0%	176	+1.61	3.06	232	81
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.97	19.8%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.83	573	80
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	80
Steven Zobac R 2023 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	4.28	18.5%	11.0%	205	+1.01	3.25	296	80
Adrian Florencio R 2021 · 3.08 FIP	22	SP	3.08	22.0%	9.0%	1.3%	.270	6.58	16.2%	2.5%	58	+3.50	3.08	153	80
Griffin Canning R 2018 · 3.69 FIP	22	SP	3.69	21.8%	10.0%	2.1%	.312	4.19	23.9%	15.3%	225	+0.50	3.60	801	80
Mason Englert R 2021 · 3.43 FIP	21	SP	3.43	19.5%	9.0%	1.5%	.311	4.55	21.9%	14.9%	249	+1.12	2.74	508	80
Domingo Acevedo R 2016 · 3.07 FIP	22	SP	3.07	20.7%	6.9%	1.6%	.324	4.12	19.8%	12.5%	249	+1.05	2.14	474	80
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	11.0	157	24.6%	6.0%	1.10	3.71
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01