Braylon Doughty — OGILVIE

Braylon Doughty P Lake County Captains

+1.2 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 203 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 3.4 · 2032

ERA4.16

FIP4.16

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.4%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%13.8%

IP85

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.4peak

2032

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	22	22	85	362	99	23	4	20.2%	7.5%	1.2%	3.48	3.02	+2.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	A+	Lake County Captains	2	2	5	23	3	0	0	—	—	—	3.38	—	—
ROS	20	MLB	CLE	16	16	85	360	81	31	10	22.4%	8.6%	2.7%	4.16	4.16	+1.0
2026 Total	20	MLB	CLE	—	—	91	383	84	31	10	21.8%	8.1%	2.5%	4.11	3.92	+1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	CLE	16	16	90	378	86	31	10	22.7%	8.3%	2.7%	4.12	4.08	+1.1
2028	22	MLB	CLE	21	21	116	490	116	39	13	23.6%	7.9%	2.6%	4.01	3.93	+1.8
2029	23	MLB	CLE	26	26	140	593	144	45	15	24.2%	7.5%	2.6%	3.90	3.82	+2.4
2030	24	MLB	CLE	29	29	160	676	167	50	17	24.7%	7.3%	2.6%	3.81	3.74	+2.8
2031	25	MLB	CLE	32	32	174	735	184	53	19	25.1%	7.2%	2.6%	3.73	3.68	+3.2
2032	26	MLB	CLE	33	33	181	764	193	55	20	25.3%	7.2%	2.6%	3.69	3.66	+3.4
2033	27	MLB	CLE	33	33	180	758	192	54	20	25.3%	7.2%	2.6%	3.68	3.67	+3.3
2034	28	MLB	CLE	32	32	177	747	189	54	20	25.3%	7.2%	2.6%	3.69	3.70	+3.2
2035	29	MLB	CLE	31	31	173	730	184	53	19	25.1%	7.3%	2.7%	3.72	3.74	+3.1
2036	30	MLB	CLE	30	30	168	708	177	52	19	24.9%	7.4%	2.7%	3.77	3.81	+2.8
2037	31	MLB	CLE	29	29	162	683	169	52	19	24.7%	7.5%	2.8%	3.84	3.88	+2.6
2038	32	MLB	CLE	28	28	155	656	160	50	19	24.4%	7.7%	2.9%	3.92	3.97	+2.3
2039	33	MLB	CLE	27	27	148	626	151	49	19	24.1%	7.9%	3.0%	4.01	4.06	+2.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			24	24	91	385	76	27	4	19.8%	7.0%	1.2%	3.47	2.96	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—			53	53	200	849	168	60	9	19.8%	7.0%	1.2%	3.47	2.96	+5.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Braylon Doughty (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.16	22.4%	8.6%	2.7%	—	3.92	23.6%	15.8%	346	-0.24	—	—	—
Jaden Hamm R 2027 · 3.82 FIP	21	SP-	3.82	23.5%	8.9%	2.9%	.273	4.78	17.1%	7.3%	83	+0.96	3.82	182	90
Javi Rivera R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	22.3%	7.9%	3.0%	.259	3.72	18.6%	9.0%	93	-0.13	2.77	186	88
Blake Money R 2028 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP-	3.53	20.7%	6.9%	2.4%	.281	4.05	23.6%	14.1%	121	+0.52	3.53	224	87
Cade Horton R 2027 · 3.24 FIP	21	SP-	3.24	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.64	22.0%	13.7%	181	+0.40	3.24	270	87
Matt Tabor R 2027 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP-	3.38	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.84	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.46	3.38	203	86
Brett Conine R 2028 · 3.21 FIP	22	SP-	3.21	22.3%	7.2%	2.0%	.290	5.79	15.4%	4.9%	205	+2.58	3.21	319	86
McCade Brown R 2027 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP-	4.05	23.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.349	4.62	24.1%	12.2%	117	+0.57	4.05	207	86
Chase Hampton R 2027 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP-	4.05	26.1%	9.5%	3.5%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	107	85
Brandon Bailey R 2028 · 3.52 FIP	22	SP-	3.52	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.92	3.52	306	85
Owen Wild R 2028 · 3.68 FIP	22	SP-	3.68	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	5.42	17.4%	7.8%	105	+1.74	3.68	226	85
David Perez R 2028 · 3.99 FIP	22	SP-	3.99	21.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.292	5.20	15.6%	1.9%	67	+1.21	3.99	151	85
Braxton Bragg R 2029 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP-	3.78	22.3%	6.4%	3.2%	.325	2.60	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.18	2.60	155	85
Cody Morris R 2028 · 3.68 FIP	22	SP-	3.68	21.6%	8.1%	2.5%	.362	2.90	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.78	2.23	256	84
Khal Stephen R 2028 · 2.96 FIP	22	SP-	2.96	20.6%	5.7%	1.6%	.284	4.04	22.5%	0.1%	13	+1.08	2.96	116	84
Garrett Burhenn R 2028 · 4.51 FIP	22	SP-	4.51	21.1%	7.7%	4.0%	.333	4.38	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.13	4.28	433	84
Domingo Acevedo R 2028 · 3.08 FIP	22	SP-	3.08	20.7%	6.9%	1.6%	.324	4.13	19.8%	12.5%	249	+1.05	2.15	443	83
Cory Lewis R 2028 · 3.42 FIP	22	SP-	3.42	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.08	22.0%	5.4%	139	+1.66	3.42	240	83
Taylor Dollard R 2028 · 4.06 FIP	22	SP-	4.06	21.9%	6.1%	3.7%	.361	3.43	18.6%	12.6%	144	-0.63	3.43	318	83
Jarrod Cande R 2028 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP-	4.32	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.96	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.64	4.32	292	83
Steven Zobac R 2028 · 3.27 FIP	22	SP-	3.27	19.7%	7.5%	1.6%	.332	3.78	18.4%	11.7%	162	+0.51	3.27	253	83

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.4	$21M	+$20M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+2.8	$25M	+$24M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.2	$30M	+$29M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+3.4	$32M	+$25M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$13M	+3.3	$32M	+$20M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$18M	+3.2	$32M	+$14M
Totals		$41M		$173M	+$132M