Cade Horton — OGILVIE

Cade Horton P Chicago Cubs

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 211 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.3 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION7 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.67

FIP3.94

K%23.7%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%16.5%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$39M ctrl surplus

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF6565

CTRL5555

CMD5055

K†5560

CH+1.8 (21%)

FB+1.2 (58%)

SL (12%)

SI (8%)

CU (9%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.826 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$13M	+$13M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$14M	+$14M
2029	Arb-1	$7M	+2.0	$13M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$12M	+1.9	$11M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$15M	+1.5	$8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$21M		$60M	+$38M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	88	349	117	27	7	100%	4.2	26.0%	8.8%	17.2%	2.2%	2.65	3.22	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	88	349	117	27	7	100%	4.2	26.0%	8.8%	17.2%	2.2%	2.65	3.22	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	88	349	117	27	7	100%	4.2	33.5%	7.7%	25.8%	2.0%	2.65	2.40	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	34	143	40	13	5	100%	3.8	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	3.8%	4.46	4.34	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	34	143	40	13	5	100%	3.8	23.0%	8.5%	14.5%	3.8%	4.46	4.34	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	34	143	40	13	5	100%	3.8	28.0%	9.1%	18.9%	3.5%	4.46	3.80	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	147	584	130	46	12	97%	5.1	21.3%	7.7%	13.6%	2.1%	2.39	3.43	+2.6
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	147	584	130	46	12	97%	5.1	21.3%	7.7%	13.6%	2.1%	2.39	3.43	+2.6
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	147	584	130	46	12	97%	5.1	22.3%	7.9%	14.4%	2.1%	2.39	3.33	+2.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	24	125	502	101	35	11	96%	5.0	20.1%	7.0%	13.1%	2.2%	2.66	3.47	+2.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	2	2	7	26	4	2	1	100%	3.7	—	—	—	—	2.45	—	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	2	2	7	26	4	2	1	100%	3.7	—	—	—	—	2.45	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	MLB RAW	CHC	2	2	7	26	4	2	1	100%	3.6	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	3.8%	2.45	4.89	—
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	CHC	2	2	7	26	4	2	1	100%	3.6	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	3.8%	2.45	4.89	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	CHC	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	23.7%	7.2%	16.5%	2.8%	3.67	3.94	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	CHC	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	23.7%	7.2%	16.5%	2.7%	3.61	3.88	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	9	34	6	3	1	—	—	17.4%	7.6%	9.8%	3.6%	2.71	0.84	+0.5
FULL	24	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	9	39	6	3	1	—	—	15.2%	6.6%	8.6%	3.1%	2.70	4.37	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CHC	26	26	152	642	158	46	18	100%	5.8	24.7%	7.1%	17.6%	2.9%	3.82	3.86	+1.9
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	27	27	164	692	177	49	20	100%	6.1	25.6%	7.1%	18.6%	2.9%	3.79	3.78	+2.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	28	28	166	699	179	50	20	100%	5.9	25.6%	7.1%	18.5%	2.9%	3.81	3.82	+2.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	28	28	166	699	178	51	21	100%	5.9	25.5%	7.3%	18.2%	3.0%	3.86	3.90	+2.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	26	26	158	668	166	50	21	100%	6.1	24.9%	7.5%	17.4%	3.2%	3.98	4.06	+1.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	25	25	149	627	152	49	21	100%	5.9	24.2%	7.8%	16.4%	3.4%	4.15	4.27	+1.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	CHC	23	23	139	585	137	48	21	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.2%	15.3%	3.6%	4.36	4.50	+0.6
2034	32	MLB MLE	CHC	21	21	128	541	123	46	21	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	3.8%	4.60	4.75	+0.2
2035	33	MLB MLE	CHC	20	20	118	497	108	45	20	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.0%	12.8%	4.1%	4.86	5.03	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	CHC	25	25	144	608	150	43	17	100%	5.8	24.7%	7.1%	17.6%	2.7%	3.76	3.80	+1.8
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	26	26	156	659	169	47	18	100%	6.0	25.6%	7.1%	18.6%	2.7%	3.73	3.72	+2.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	26	26	157	663	170	47	19	100%	6.0	25.6%	7.1%	18.5%	2.8%	3.75	3.76	+2.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	26	26	157	663	169	48	19	100%	6.0	25.5%	7.3%	18.2%	2.9%	3.80	3.84	+1.9
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	25	25	150	633	158	48	19	100%	6.0	24.9%	7.5%	17.4%	3.0%	3.92	4.00	+1.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	24	24	141	595	144	46	19	100%	5.9	24.2%	7.8%	16.4%	3.2%	4.08	4.20	+1.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	CHC	22	22	132	557	131	45	19	100%	6.0	23.4%	8.2%	15.3%	3.4%	4.29	4.43	+0.6
2034	32	MLB CTX	CHC	20	20	122	515	117	44	19	100%	6.1	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	3.7%	4.52	4.67	+0.2
2035	33	MLB CTX	CHC	19	19	112	473	103	43	19	100%	5.9	21.8%	9.0%	12.8%	4.0%	4.78	4.95	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		238	237	1399	5878	1413	447	179	100%	5.9	24.0%	7.6%	16.4%	3.0%	3.91	3.71	+20.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	841	202	64	26	100%	5.9	24.0%	7.6%	16.4%	3.0%	3.91	3.71	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		61	60	277	1102	252	89	26	98%	4.5	22.9%	8.1%	14.7%	2.4%	2.73	3.51	+13.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	43	200	796	182	65	19	98%	4.5	22.9%	8.1%	14.7%	2.4%	2.73	3.51	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Horton (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	23.7%	7.2%	2.8%	—	3.82	25.3%	18.2%	482	-0.12	—	—	—
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	81
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	820	79
Mike Foltynewicz R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SP	3.97	21.1%	7.6%	3.1%	.280	3.76	23.0%	14.8%	505	-0.21	3.17	938	78
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	78
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	78
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	78
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	22.3%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	437	-0.11	3.82	695	77
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.66	456	77
Erik Swanson R 2018 · 3.14 FIP	24	SP	3.14	25.2%	6.9%	2.3%	.271	5.07	22.3%	15.9%	118	+1.93	1.60	606	77
Cory Lewis R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	22	SP	3.43	21.7%	9.3%	1.8%	.267	5.06	21.6%	7.5%	229	+1.63	3.43	330	77
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	77
Luke Weaver R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	19.9%	8.5%	3.4%	.314	3.85	24.1%	18.0%	182	-0.50	2.54	1,038	77
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.16	17.5%	7.3%	304	+1.22	3.61	547	76
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.29	24.8%	14.4%	148	+0.08	2.00	352	76
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	76
Tyler Stuart R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	23	SP	3.55	19.5%	8.1%	2.0%	.280	3.87	20.3%	11.8%	142	+0.32	3.53	252	76
Kyle Bradish R 2021 · 3.60 FIP	24	SP	3.60	26.4%	10.6%	2.5%	.333	3.30	24.9%	17.2%	345	-0.30	2.20	750	76
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.33	18.3%	11.3%	428	+0.03	3.24	669	75
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	75
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.2	145	24.4%	7.6%	1.24	4.07
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01