Cade Horton

P Chicago Cubs

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 211 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.4 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBSPIL-6040-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	9	9	34	4.46	3.80	28.0%	9.1%	—	K 23.4% · BB 8.5% · FIP 4.30
2025	23	MIX2 levels	29	28	147	2.39	3.33	22.3%	7.9%	3.7	K 21.5% · BB 7.7% · FIP 3.42
2026	24	MLBCHC	2	2	7	2.45	4.60	15.4%	7.7%	0.1
2027PROJ	25	MLBCHC	11	11	62	3.71	3.99	23.7%	7.3%	1.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBCHC	18	18	106	3.75	3.82	24.9%	7.2%	1.9
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBCHC	16	16	96	3.82	3.86	24.9%	7.3%	1.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.826First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$5M2030Arb-2$8M2031Arb-3$10M

CompsDylan DeLucia (age 23) · Brendan Beck (age 24) · Jose Acevedo (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA3.71

FIP3.99

K%23.7%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%16.5%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$33M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.826 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.9	$14M	+$13M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+1.7	$12M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+1.5	$10M	+$4M
2031	Arb-3	$10M	+1.2	$7M	+$0.4M
Totals		$25M		$51M	+$32M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	88	349	117	27	7	100%	4.2	26.0%	8.8%	17.2%	2.2%	2.65	3.22	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	88	349	117	27	7	100%	4.2	33.5%	7.7%	25.8%	2.0%	2.65	2.40	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	34	143	40	13	5	100%	3.8	23.4%	8.5%	15.0%	3.8%	4.46	4.30	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	34	143	40	13	5	100%	3.8	23.4%	8.5%	15.0%	3.8%	4.46	4.30	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	34	143	40	13	5	100%	3.8	28.0%	9.1%	18.9%	3.5%	4.46	3.80	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	147	584	130	46	12	97%	5.1	21.5%	7.7%	13.8%	2.1%	2.39	3.42	+3.6
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	147	584	130	46	12	97%	5.1	21.5%	7.7%	13.8%	2.1%	2.39	3.42	+3.6
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	147	584	130	46	12	97%	5.1	22.3%	7.9%	14.4%	2.1%	2.39	3.33	+3.7
2026	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	2	2	7	26	4	2	1	100%	3.7	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	3.8%	2.45	4.89	+0.0
2026	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	2	2	7	26	4	2	1	100%	3.7	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	3.8%	2.45	4.89	+0.0
2026	24	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	2	2	7	26	4	2	1	100%	3.7	15.4%	7.7%	7.7%	3.8%	2.45	4.60	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	24	125	502	101	35	11	96%	5.0	20.1%	7.0%	13.1%	2.2%	2.66	3.47	+3.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CHC	11	11	62	262	62	19	8	100%	5.6	23.7%	7.3%	16.5%	2.9%	3.71	3.99	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CHC	19	19	112	472	118	34	14	100%	5.9	24.9%	7.2%	17.7%	2.9%	3.81	3.88	+2.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	CHC	17	17	101	425	106	31	13	100%	5.9	24.9%	7.3%	17.6%	3.0%	3.88	3.92	+1.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	CHC	16	16	94	398	99	30	12	100%	5.9	24.8%	7.4%	17.4%	3.1%	3.96	4.01	+1.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	CHC	14	14	84	356	86	27	11	100%	6.0	24.2%	7.7%	16.6%	3.2%	4.08	4.17	+1.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	CHC	12	12	72	304	72	24	10	100%	6.0	23.5%	8.0%	15.6%	3.4%	4.26	4.37	+0.9
2033	31	MLB MLE	CHC	10	10	58	246	56	20	9	100%	5.8	22.8%	8.3%	14.5%	3.6%	4.47	4.60	+0.5
2034	32	MLB MLE	CHC	7	7	44	185	41	16	7	100%	6.2	22.0%	8.7%	13.3%	3.9%	4.70	4.86	+0.3
2035	33	MLB MLE	CHC	5	5	30	127	27	12	5	100%	6.0	21.1%	9.2%	12.0%	4.2%	4.96	5.14	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	CHC	18	18	106	448	112	32	13	100%	5.9	24.9%	7.2%	17.7%	2.8%	3.75	3.82	+1.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	CHC	16	16	96	405	101	30	12	100%	6.0	24.9%	7.3%	17.6%	2.8%	3.82	3.86	+1.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	CHC	15	15	90	380	94	28	11	100%	6.0	24.8%	7.4%	17.4%	2.9%	3.90	3.95	+1.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	CHC	13	13	80	338	82	26	10	100%	6.2	24.2%	7.7%	16.6%	3.1%	4.01	4.10	+1.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	CHC	11	11	68	287	68	23	9	100%	6.2	23.5%	8.0%	15.6%	3.3%	4.19	4.30	+0.8
2033	31	MLB CTX	CHC	9	9	55	232	53	19	8	100%	6.1	22.8%	8.3%	14.5%	3.5%	4.40	4.53	+0.5
2034	32	MLB CTX	CHC	7	7	42	177	39	15	7	100%	6.0	22.0%	8.7%	13.3%	3.7%	4.62	4.78	+0.3
2035	33	MLB CTX	CHC	5	5	29	122	26	11	5	100%	5.8	21.1%	9.2%	12.0%	4.0%	4.87	5.05	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		119	118	690	2888	674	220	86	99%	5.8	23.4%	7.6%	15.7%	3.0%	3.80	3.72	+14.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	837	195	64	25	99%	5.8	23.4%	7.6%	15.7%	3.0%	3.80	3.72	+4.1
Career	—	MLE		61	60	277	1102	254	89	26	98%	4.5	23.0%	8.1%	14.9%	2.4%	2.73	3.50	+11.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	43	200	796	183	65	19	98%	4.5	23.0%	8.1%	14.9%	2.4%	2.73	3.50	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 29 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.25 (+0.19)K% 30.6% → 26.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.56%	—	×0.860	26.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.04%	—	×0.900	10.83%
HR / BF /BF	1.85%	÷1.125	×1.100	1.81%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 125).

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIowa Cubs · 18 IPFIP 5.24 → 5.44 (+0.20)K% 27.2% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.16%	—	×0.860	23.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.58%	—	×0.900	12.22%
HR / BF /BF	4.94%	÷1.079	×1.100	5.03%

Result: FIP 5.24 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AATennessee Smokies · 16 IPFIP 1.94 → 2.81 (+0.87)K% 29.0% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.03%	—	×0.810	23.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.23%	—	×1.100	3.55%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷0.854	×1.200	2.27%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 1.94 → 2.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 47 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.62 (+0.88)K% 35.1% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.14%	—	×0.770	27.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.49%	—	×1.150	7.46%
HR / BF /BF	3.24%	÷1.197	×1.250	3.39%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 139).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATennessee Smokies · 27 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.56 (+0.58)K% 28.4% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.44%	—	×0.810	23.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.09%	—	×1.100	11.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.082	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 14 IPFIP 1.79 → 3.16 (+1.36)K% 38.2% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.18%	—	×0.740	28.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.180	8.58%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.957	×1.300	2.47%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 1.79 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Horton (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	3.93	24.9%	17.6%	307	-0.06	—	—	—
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	78
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	73
Jose Acevedo R 2003 · 3.43 FIP	25	SP-	3.43	22.3%	4.9%	2.9%	.194	4.85	14.9%	9.8%	222	+1.42	3.43	368	72
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	70
Javi Rivera R 2024 · 2.81 FIP	24	SP	2.81	21.7%	8.4%	0.9%	.293	7.67	14.1%	1.7%	88	+4.86	2.81	274	69
James McDonald R 2010 · 2.99 FIP	25	SP-	2.99	22.2%	7.8%	1.4%	.314	4.36	19.8%	10.2%	372	+1.37	2.99	506	69
Shohei Ohtani R 2018 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP	3.43	29.9%	10.4%	2.8%	.267	3.14	29.3%	21.4%	130	-0.29	1.76	613	69
Jared Karros R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	21.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.281	7.71	12.4%	2.7%	52	+4.35	3.36	191	69
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	68
Peter Van Loon R 2024 · 3.27 FIP	25	SP	3.27	25.5%	11.9%	1.5%	.303	4.20	21.0%	10.9%	53	+0.93	2.51	256	67
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.41	21.2%	12.3%	382	+0.03	3.64	556	67
Shane Greene R 2014 · 3.37 FIP	25	SP	3.37	23.5%	8.4%	2.2%	.322	3.82	19.0%	10.9%	247	+0.45	2.86	563	67
River Ryan R 2024 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	23.4%	9.8%	1.5%	.280	2.44	22.7%	18.1%	41	-0.74	2.44	223	67
Clarke Schmidt R 2021 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP	3.81	25.4%	7.6%	3.5%	.313	3.40	23.9%	16.4%	335	-0.41	2.77	537	66
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	66
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	66
Drew McDaniel R 2024 · 4.24 FIP	23	SP	4.24	19.4%	8.4%	3.1%	.307	5.65	18.3%	7.2%	91	+1.41	4.24	230	66
Jimmy Nelson R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	25	SP	3.33	18.3%	6.1%	1.8%	.332	3.69	21.4%	13.0%	532	+0.36	1.32	720	65
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	65
Blake Burkhalter R 2024 · 3.35 FIP	23	SP	3.35	17.3%	6.5%	1.6%	.317	3.55	18.1%	7.9%	133	+0.20	3.25	202	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	79	23.4%	7.6%	1.18	3.86
Tom Niedenfuer ('81-'90, 8 WAR*)	3.3	65	23.1%*	8.1%*	1.19*	3.80*
Roy Lee Jackson ('77-'86, 5 WAR*)	2.8	70	21.9%*	8.6%*	1.09*	3.99*
Joe Beckwith ('79-'86, 3 WAR*)	2.1	70	24.9%*	8.2%*	1.13*	3.96*
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72
Daniel Hudson ('24)	4.3	71	22.8%	7.7%	1.01	3.74
Tyler Duffey ('24)	2.4	61	23.1%	7.0%	1.24	4.57