Cade Horton
P
Chicago Cubs
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 211 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 2.1 · 2028
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION7 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91
ERA3.67
FIP3.94
K%23.8%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%16.2%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CH+1.8 (21%)
FB+1.2 (58%)
SL (12%)
SI (8%)
CU (9%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 88 | 349 | 117 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 4.2 | 26.0% | 8.8% | 17.2% | 1.9% | 2.65 | 3.09 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 21 | 88 | 349 | 117 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 4.2 | 33.5% | 7.7% | 25.8% | 2.0% | 2.65 | 2.40 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 34 | 143 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 3.8 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 4.46 | 4.42 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 34 | 143 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 3.8 | 28.0% | 9.1% | 18.9% | 3.5% | 4.46 | 3.80 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 147 | 584 | 130 | 46 | 12 | 97% | 5.1 | 21.6% | 8.0% | 13.6% | 2.0% | 2.39 | 3.37 | +3.5 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 147 | 584 | 130 | 46 | 12 | 97% | 5.1 | 22.3% | 7.9% | 14.4% | 2.1% | 2.39 | 3.33 | +3.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 2 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 3.7 | — | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 65 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.8% | 7.6% | 16.2% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 65 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.8% | 7.6% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 3.69 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 72 | 300 | 69 | 23 | 9 | — | — | 23.1% | 7.6% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 3.55 | 3.54 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 72 | 305 | 69 | 23 | 9 | — | — | 22.7% | 7.5% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 3.56 | 3.69 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 24 | 24 | 138 | 581 | 143 | 43 | 16 | 100% | 5.7 | 24.6% | 7.5% | 17.1% | 2.8% | 3.83 | 3.88 | +2.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 25 | 25 | 150 | 631 | 160 | 47 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.4% | 7.4% | 18.0% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.81 | +2.8 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 25 | 25 | 151 | 639 | 162 | 48 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.4% | 7.5% | 17.9% | 2.8% | 3.83 | 3.84 | +2.8 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 25 | 25 | 151 | 639 | 162 | 49 | 19 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.3% | 7.7% | 17.6% | 2.9% | 3.89 | 3.93 | +2.6 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 24 | 24 | 144 | 610 | 151 | 48 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 7.9% | 16.8% | 3.1% | 4.01 | 4.09 | +2.2 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 23 | 23 | 136 | 573 | 138 | 47 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.0% | 8.2% | 15.8% | 3.3% | 4.18 | 4.30 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 127 | 535 | 124 | 46 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 3.5% | 4.39 | 4.53 | +1.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 117 | 494 | 111 | 44 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 3.8% | 4.63 | 4.78 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 107 | 453 | 98 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 4.0% | 4.89 | 5.06 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 16 | 16 | 98 | 413 | 85 | 41 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 4.3% | 5.18 | 5.37 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 136 | 41 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 7.5% | 17.1% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 3.90 | +2.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 152 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.4% | 7.4% | 18.0% | 2.8% | 3.84 | 3.83 | +2.6 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 154 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.4% | 7.5% | 17.9% | 2.9% | 3.85 | 3.86 | +2.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 24 | 24 | 144 | 608 | 154 | 47 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.3% | 7.7% | 17.6% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 3.95 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 23 | 23 | 137 | 578 | 143 | 46 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.7% | 7.9% | 16.8% | 3.1% | 4.03 | 4.11 | +2.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 131 | 45 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.0% | 8.2% | 15.8% | 3.3% | 4.20 | 4.32 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 120 | 507 | 118 | 43 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 3.6% | 4.41 | 4.55 | +1.2 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 18 | 18 | 111 | 469 | 105 | 42 | 18 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 13.5% | 3.8% | 4.66 | 4.81 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 102 | 431 | 93 | 40 | 18 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.6% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 4.92 | 5.09 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 77 | 37 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 4.4% | 5.21 | 5.40 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 250 | 249 | 1439 | 6046 | 1430 | 487 | 193 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.06 | 3.87 | +25.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 841 | 199 | 68 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.6% | 8.1% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.06 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 61 | 60 | 277 | 1102 | 255 | 93 | 25 | 98% | 4.5 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 2.3% | 2.73 | 3.45 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 43 | 200 | 796 | 184 | 67 | 18 | 98% | 4.5 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 2.3% | 2.73 | 3.45 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cade Horton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.94 | 23.8% | 7.6% | 2.7% | — | 3.84 | 25.2% | 17.7% | 438 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.69 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 3.1% | .336 | 6.45 | 25.7% | 15.1% | 20 | +2.76 | 3.69 | 124 | 81 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.81 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .321 | 5.05 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.24 | 3.81 | 171 | 80 |
| Tyler Stuart R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.57 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .319 | 6.10 | 15.6% | 0.6% | 19 | +2.53 | 3.57 | 252 | 80 |
| Raisel Iglesias R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.56 | 23.7% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .271 | 3.14 | 27.7% | 19.6% | 226 | -0.42 | 1.35 | 797 | 79 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.79 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .244 | 3.56 | 23.9% | 18.1% | 56 | -0.23 | 3.56 | 167 | 79 |
| Kyle Brnovich R 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.69 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .256 | 5.06 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 89 | +1.37 | 3.69 | 333 | 78 |
| Carson Ragsdale R 2025 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.20 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .349 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 14.2% | 148 | +0.07 | 1.96 | 352 | 77 |
| Andy Ferguson R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 3.0% | .262 | 3.13 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 33 | -0.44 | 3.13 | 137 | 77 |
| Alex Faedo R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.39 | 22.9% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .293 | 4.60 | 18.0% | 7.8% | 54 | +1.21 | 3.39 | 438 | 77 |
| Dom Hamel R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.08 | 24.6% | 10.2% | 3.2% | .314 | 5.13 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 271 | +1.05 | 3.65 | 514 | 77 |
| Ben Gross R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.20 | 23.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .359 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 2.0% | 22 | +0.67 | 4.20 | 118 | 77 |
| Kyle Bradish R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.59 | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.5% | .333 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 17.2% | 345 | -0.39 | 2.15 | 702 | 77 |
| Erik Swanson R 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.08 | 25.2% | 6.9% | 2.2% | .271 | 5.11 | 22.3% | 15.9% | 118 | +2.03 | 1.63 | 606 | 77 |
| Isaac Coffey R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.65 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .280 | 6.01 | 18.9% | 5.5% | 56 | +2.36 | 3.65 | 287 | 76 |
| Will Warren R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.16 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .287 | 4.01 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 393 | -0.15 | 3.80 | 651 | 76 |
| Alex Pham R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 22.6% | 11.1% | 2.3% | .284 | 3.63 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 79 | -0.22 | 3.48 | 331 | 76 |
| Tyson Hardin R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.45 | 23.4% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 177 | 76 |
| Emerson Hancock R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.65 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.28 | 18.7% | 10.9% | 389 | -0.37 | 3.21 | 630 | 75 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.02 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 4.6% | .279 | 5.06 | 21.5% | 11.8% | 160 | +0.04 | 5.01 | 282 | 75 |
| Mike Foltynewicz R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.85 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 2.9% | .280 | 3.76 | 23.0% | 14.8% | 505 | -0.09 | 3.17 | 938 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 127 | 23.9% | 8.2% | 1.25 | 4.17 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Kenta Maeda ('24) | 8 | 122 | 25.9% | 6.9% | 1.30 | 4.17 |
| Alex Wood ('24) | 9 | 111 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 0.96 | 3.98 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |