Cade Horton
P
Chicago Cubs
+0.5
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 211 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.5 · 2027
ERA3.49
FIP4.04
xFIP3.81
SIERA4.24
K%21.9%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%13.7%
IP118
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2027
K†5555
FB Velo
p6795.7
Whiff%
p5325.8%
K%
p3820.4%
xwOBA vs
p560.306
CH+1.8 (21%)
FB+1.2 (58%)
SL (12%)
SI (8%)
CU (9%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 21 | 21 | 88 | 349 | 117 | 27 | 7 | 26.0% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 2.65 | 3.24 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 22 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 9 | 9 | 34 | 143 | 40 | 13 | 5 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 4.46 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 29 | 28 | 147 | 584 | 130 | 46 | 12 | 21.6% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 2.39 | 3.45 | +3.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 2 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | CHC | 26 | — | 26 | 108 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 23.2% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.47 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 33 | 134 | 29 | 11 | 4 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 3.24 | 3.19 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 115 | 487 | 110 | 39 | 14 | 22.7% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 3.92 | 4.15 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | CHC | 21 | 21 | 114 | 482 | 110 | 38 | 14 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.13 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | CHC | 20 | 20 | 109 | 462 | 106 | 37 | 13 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 4.14 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 99 | 35 | 13 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.17 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 88 | 32 | 12 | 22.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 15 | 15 | 84 | 354 | 77 | 29 | 11 | 21.8% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.33 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 74 | 24 | 10 | 23.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.21 | 4.17 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 64 | 22 | 9 | 22.6% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.26 | 4.29 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 55 | 20 | 8 | 21.9% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.35 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 47 | 18 | 7 | 21.2% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 40 | 16 | 7 | 20.5% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 4.61 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 33 | 15 | 6 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 61 | 60 | 277 | 1102 | 255 | 93 | 27 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 2.73 | 3.54 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 43 | 200 | 796 | 184 | 67 | 19 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 2.73 | 3.54 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cade Horton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.11 | 23.2% | 8.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.14 | 22.8% | 14.8% | 339 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Nick Merkel R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 76 |
| Trent Harris R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.46 | 26.9% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .258 | 3.75 | 23.1% | 14.7% | 57 | +0.29 | 3.46 | 134 | 75 |
| Casey Cobb R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.52 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .261 | 5.56 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 191 | 74 |
| Josh Martin R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.10 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .257 | 2.97 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 2.43 | 225 | 74 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.84 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.3% | .344 | 4.99 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.15 | 3.63 | 386 | 74 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 74 |
| Yacksel Ríos R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.60 | 24.4% | 7.7% | 2.9% | .216 | 4.70 | 20.2% | 8.7% | 121 | +1.10 | 3.17 | 494 | 73 |
| Randall Delgado R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.5% | .284 | 3.72 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 167 | -0.01 | 3.05 | 290 | 73 |
| Kelvin Herrera R 2027 · 3.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.32 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .245 | 3.33 | 25.0% | 19.6% | 176 | +0.01 | 2.35 | 297 | 73 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.34 | 3.26 | 139 | 73 |
| Nick Rumbelow R 2025 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.21 | 22.6% | 6.1% | 2.3% | .295 | 3.40 | 24.8% | 16.4% | 64 | +0.19 | 2.03 | 164 | 73 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.63 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .282 | 2.78 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.85 | 2.77 | 107 | 73 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.68 | 25.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .315 | 3.77 | 21.0% | 14.1% | 32 | +0.09 | 3.68 | 147 | 73 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 71 |
| Bear Bellomy R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.54 | 23.1% | 6.9% | 4.6% | .274 | 5.62 | 15.0% | 8.2% | 72 | +1.08 | 4.54 | 139 | 71 |
| Tyler Joyner R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 2.0% | .250 | 6.54 | 16.1% | 5.2% | 37 | +2.83 | 3.71 | 114 | 71 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 71 |
| Will Vest R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .282 | 3.66 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 124 | -0.05 | 2.53 | 421 | 71 |
| Steven Wilson R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 27.2% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .271 | 3.68 | 29.3% | 19.9% | 92 | -0.34 | 3.61 | 311 | 71 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .262 | 6.13 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.64 | 3.49 | 207 | 71 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.826 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.5 | $12M | +$12M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $4M | +1.4 | $12M | +$9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $6M | +1.3 | $12M | +$6M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $7M | +1.0 | $9M | +$2M |
| Totals | $19M | $60M | +$41M | ||