Dylan DeLucia — OGILVIE

Dylan DeLucia P Akron RubberDucks

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION88 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.79

FIP4.79

K%19.3%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD4555

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2027
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	49	193	52	12	4	100%	3.8	21.6%	7.4%	14.2%	3.0%	2.55	3.88	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	13	49	193	52	12	4	100%	3.8	21.6%	7.4%	14.2%	3.0%	2.55	3.88	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	13	49	193	52	12	4	100%	3.8	26.9%	6.2%	20.7%	2.1%	2.55	2.78	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	108	446	106	42	14	92%	4.5	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	3.9%	3.57	5.01	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	22	108	446	106	42	14	92%	4.5	18.8%	10.6%	8.2%	3.9%	3.57	5.01	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	22	108	446	106	42	14	92%	4.5	23.8%	9.4%	14.3%	3.1%	3.57	3.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	29	17	88	411	87	42	16	59%	3.0	17.1%	11.2%	5.9%	4.7%	6.62	5.64	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	29	17	88	411	87	42	16	59%	3.0	17.1%	11.2%	5.9%	4.7%	6.62	5.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	CLE	29	17	88	411	87	42	16	59%	3.0	21.2%	10.2%	10.9%	3.9%	6.62	4.74	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CLE	2	2	11	46	9	4	1	100%	5.4	19.3%	9.7%	9.6%	3.1%	4.79	4.79	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	99	457	96	46	17	—	—	21.0%	10.2%	10.8%	3.8%	6.42	5.55	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	140	592	121	56	18	100%	6.1	20.4%	9.4%	11.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.66	+0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	CLE	23	23	138	584	120	55	18	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.4%	11.2%	3.2%	4.66	4.66	+0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	134	566	116	53	18	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.2%	4.69	4.73	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	CLE	21	21	128	541	110	52	18	100%	6.1	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.4%	4.78	4.85	+0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	CLE	20	20	120	508	101	50	18	100%	6.0	19.9%	9.9%	10.0%	3.6%	4.93	5.02	-0.2
2032	31	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	112	474	93	49	18	100%	5.9	19.5%	10.3%	9.3%	3.8%	5.11	5.23	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	CLE	10	10	62	262	53	25	8	100%	6.2	20.4%	9.4%	11.0%	3.1%	4.69	4.66	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CLE	15	15	88	372	76	35	12	100%	5.9	20.5%	9.4%	11.2%	3.1%	4.66	4.66	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CLE	17	17	101	426	87	40	14	100%	5.9	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.2%	4.69	4.73	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	105	443	90	43	15	100%	5.8	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	3.4%	4.78	4.85	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	CLE	17	17	103	435	87	43	16	100%	6.1	19.9%	9.9%	10.0%	3.6%	4.93	5.02	-0.1
2032	31	MLB CTX	CLE	17	17	100	422	83	43	16	100%	5.9	19.5%	10.3%	9.3%	3.8%	5.10	5.22	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		93	93	558	2357	476	229	80	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	3.4%	4.82	4.49	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	171	82	29	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.7%	10.5%	3.4%	4.82	4.49	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		66	52	246	1050	196	108	43	79%	3.7	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	4.1%	4.46	5.05	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	42	200	854	159	88	35	79%	3.7	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	4.1%	4.46	5.05	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan DeLucia (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.79	19.3%	9.7%	3.1%	—	4.68	20.5%	11.1%	413	-0.11	—	—	—
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	89
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	85
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	84
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	84
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	83
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	83
Kyle Dowdy R 2018 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP-	4.51	18.7%	10.0%	3.1%	.344	4.88	18.4%	4.5%	125	+0.37	2.98	606	83
Jacob Turner R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	15.9%	7.8%	2.8%	.338	4.63	15.0%	5.3%	209	+0.34	4.29	340	83
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	82
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	81
Chris Ellis R 2018 · 3.84 FIP	25	SP-	3.84	19.3%	7.3%	2.6%	.284	5.30	19.2%	7.2%	165	+1.46	3.84	780	81
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	81
Kyle Lloyd R 2016 · 3.98 FIP	25	SP-	3.98	14.9%	7.6%	2.1%	.292	4.06	18.3%	9.7%	304	+0.08	3.50	572	81
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	80
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	79
Alex Wimmers R 2015 · 3.69 FIP	26	SP-	3.69	16.6%	9.7%	1.4%	.324	3.68	21.5%	12.1%	114	-0.01	3.61	230	79
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	79
Garrett Stallings R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP-	4.32	20.0%	7.9%	3.5%	.327	4.11	16.2%	9.2%	260	-0.21	3.53	612	79
Bubba Derby R 2019 · 5.42 FIP	25	SP-	5.42	18.0%	10.1%	4.7%	.287	5.14	19.4%	11.0%	71	-0.28	3.68	550	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	129	20.1%	9.6%	1.29	4.80
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58