David Griffin
P
Syracuse Mets
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 205 lbs
AAA
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 55 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.61
FIP4.61
K%21.6%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP55
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 71 | 305 | 78 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 3.57 | 4.52 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 71 | 305 | 78 | 31 | 6 | 100% | 5.0 | 25.6% | 10.2% | 15.4% | 2.0% | 3.57 | 3.31 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 18 | 94 | 407 | 84 | 35 | 12 | 64% | 3.4 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 4.94 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 18 | 94 | 407 | 84 | 35 | 12 | 64% | 3.4 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 4.09 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 15 | 81 | 373 | 63 | 36 | 16 | 68% | 3.7 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.67 | 6.04 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 15 | 81 | 373 | 63 | 36 | 16 | 68% | 3.7 | 16.9% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 6.67 | 5.45 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 1 | 10 | 54 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 20% | 1.9 | 16.7% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 1.9% | 13.03 | 3.88 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 1 | 10 | 54 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 20% | 1.9 | 16.7% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 1.9% | 13.03 | 4.13 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 50 | 22 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.61 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 51 | 217 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 8 | 48 | 201 | 42 | 20 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 7 | 7 | 44 | 184 | 38 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 5.04 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 4 | 4 | 24 | 101 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 5.04 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 11 | 69 | 291 | 61 | 30 | 11 | 100% | 6.3 | 21.0% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.89 | 4.64 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 177 | 87 | 32 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.0% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 3.7% | 4.89 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 69 | 48 | 256 | 1139 | 189 | 119 | 44 | 70% | 3.7 | 16.6% | 10.5% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 5.46 | 5.14 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 38 | 200 | 891 | 148 | 93 | 34 | 70% | 3.7 | 16.6% | 10.5% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 5.46 | 5.14 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Griffin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 3.2% | — | 4.97 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 142 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 80 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 80 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 76 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 73 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 73 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 72 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 72 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 71 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 70 |
| Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .291 | 3.31 | 24.6% | 19.0% | 112 | -1.45 | 2.75 | 902 | 69 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 68 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 68 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.84 | 17.4% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.10 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 305 | +1.26 | 3.84 | 567 | 67 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.58 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .293 | 5.01 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 170 | +0.43 | 3.89 | 250 | 66 |
| Kohei Arihara R 2025 · 4.67 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 135 | 66 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 66 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.05 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 3.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.53 | 507 | 66 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2027 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.42 | 12.9% | 5.3% | 1.4% | .266 | 3.59 | 16.5% | 11.5% | 154 | +0.17 | 3.42 | 214 | 66 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 65 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 21.2% | 9.9% | 1.35 | 4.79 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |