Aaron Wilkerson
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 37
RHP
6'2" / 230 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION80 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA5.43
FIP5.43
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.9%
BB%6.2%
K-BB%12.6%
IP81
K†4550
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p1089.8
Whiff%
p1720.7%
K%
p1013.8%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 29 | 20 | 137 | 541 | 137 | 39 | 2 | 19.7% | 8.2% | 0.5% | 3.10 | 2.75 | +4.2 |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | 28 | 27 | 147 | 622 | 159 | 41 | 12 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 3.73 | 3.29 | +3.6 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 27 | 26 | 153 | 599 | 150 | 35 | 13 | 20.6% | 6.7% | 1.4% | 3.18 | 2.99 | +4.3 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 18 | 13 | 81 | 346 | 71 | 27 | 7 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 0.9% | 3.32 | 3.14 | +1.8 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 25 | 17 | 92 | 394 | 92 | 37 | 14 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 4.09 | 4.76 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 32 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 23 | 19 | 112 | 448 | 125 | 24 | 12 | 24.6% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 3.86 | 3.31 | +2.7 |
| 2023 | 34 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 14 | 6 | 47 | 214 | 53 | 14 | 12 | 21.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.51 | 5.54 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 36 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 29 | 29 | 153 | 608 | 118 | 30 | 27 | 17.1% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 3.89 | 5.95 | -1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 64 | 21 | 17 | 18.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.43 | 5.43 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 59 | 18 | 16 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.41 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 193 | 157 | 922 | 3772 | 770 | 267 | 109 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 3.73 | 3.86 | +16.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 34 | 200 | 819 | 167 | 58 | 24 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 3.73 | 3.86 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aaron Wilkerson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.43 | 18.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | — | 5.48 | 20.0% | 13.8% | 70 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Jake Peavy R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.36 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 3.8% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.09 | 262 | 75 |
| Colby Lewis R 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.70 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 321 | 72 |
| Tim Hudson R 2029 · 4.42 FIP | 40 | SP- | 4.42 | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 124 | 70 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 70 |
| Chris Smith R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.11 | 15.6% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 413 | 69 |
| Edgar Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.58 | 12.3% | 5.8% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 450 | 69 |
| Chris Young R 2026 · 6.50 FIP | 37 | SP- | 6.50 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 7.4% | .314 | 5.65 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 30 | -0.85 | 4.67 | 242 | 66 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2024 · 6.28 FIP | 35 | SP- | 6.28 | 10.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 155 | 63 |
| Francisco Rodriguez R 2025 · 5.11 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.11 | 10.7% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 273 | 62 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 37 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 235 | 62 |
| Jose Oyervides R 2026 · 5.90 FIP | 37 | SP- | 5.90 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 5.0% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 407 | 62 |
| J.D. Martin R 2025 · 5.98 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.98 | 13.9% | 12.8% | 4.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 289 | 61 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 60 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.53 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 211 | 60 |
| Pablo Ortega R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 38 | SP- | 4.41 | 8.6% | 7.3% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.33 | 11.5% | 6.0% | 236 | -0.08 | 3.92 | 375 | 57 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 36 | SW | 5.13 | 13.6% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 225 | 56 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 36 | SW | 5.02 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | .282 | 4.48 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.54 | 4.48 | 156 | 56 |
| Mitch Talbot R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.05 | 13.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 162 | 55 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2025 · 5.68 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.68 | 6.4% | 9.7% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.91 | 172 | 53 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 52 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.