Aaron Wilkerson

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 38 RHP 6'2" / 230 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	34	AAAOAK	14	6	47	6.51	5.06	24.8%	6.5%	—	K 21.3% · BB 5.9% · FIP 5.45
2025	36	AAASTL	29	29	153	3.89	4.44	19.4%	4.9%	—	K 16.7% · BB 4.4% · FIP 5.34
2027PROJ	38	MLBSTL	2	2	9	4.94	4.94	16.3%	5.1%	0.0
2028PROJMLE	39	MLBSTL	—	—	0	4.97	5.03	17.7%	5.3%	—
2029PROJMLE	40	MLBSTL	—	—	0	5.22	5.41	17.0%	6.3%	—

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019

xwOBA vs49

FB Velo10

K%10

CompsWalter Silva (age 38) · Yasutomo Kubo (age 38) · Jose Oyervides (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.94

FIP4.94

K%16.3%

BB%5.1%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP88

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1089.8

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p1013.8%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	20	137	541	137	39	2	69%	4.7	19.7%	8.2%	11.5%	0.5%	3.10	2.75	—
2015	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	20	137	541	137	39	2	69%	4.7	25.3%	7.2%	18.1%	0.4%	3.10	2.14	—
2016	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	147	622	159	41	12	96%	5.2	22.0%	7.0%	14.9%	2.1%	3.73	3.29	—
2016	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	147	622	159	41	12	96%	5.2	25.6%	6.6%	19.0%	1.9%	3.73	2.83	—
2017	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	153	599	150	35	13	96%	5.7	20.6%	6.7%	14.0%	1.8%	3.18	3.21	+4.1
2017	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	153	599	150	35	13	96%	5.7	25.0%	5.8%	19.2%	2.2%	3.18	2.93	+4.8
2018	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	13	81	346	71	27	7	72%	4.5	17.7%	8.3%	9.4%	1.0%	3.32	3.19	+2.2
2018	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	13	81	346	71	27	7	72%	4.5	20.5%	7.8%	12.7%	2.0%	3.32	3.47	+1.9
2019	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	17	92	394	92	37	14	68%	3.7	20.9%	9.8%	11.1%	3.8%	4.09	4.67	+0.8
2019	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	17	92	394	92	37	14	68%	3.7	23.4%	9.4%	14.0%	3.6%	4.09	4.28	+1.2
2021	32	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	23	19	112	448	125	24	12	83%	4.9	24.6%	5.6%	18.9%	2.9%	3.86	3.33	—
2021	32	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	23	19	112	448	125	24	12	83%	4.9	27.9%	5.4%	22.5%	2.7%	3.86	2.90	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	14	6	47	214	53	14	12	43%	3.4	21.3%	5.9%	15.4%	6.2%	6.51	5.45	—
2023	34	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	14	6	47	214	53	14	12	43%	3.4	24.8%	6.5%	18.2%	5.6%	6.51	5.06	—
2025	36	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	29	29	153	608	118	30	27	100%	5.3	16.7%	4.4%	12.2%	5.6%	3.89	5.34	—
2025	36	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	29	29	153	608	118	30	27	100%	5.3	16.7%	4.4%	12.2%	5.6%	3.89	5.34	—
2025	36	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	29	29	153	608	118	30	27	100%	5.3	19.4%	4.9%	14.5%	4.4%	3.89	4.44	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	3	35	160	28	12	9	21%	2.5	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	5.6%	6.88	5.85	-0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	STL	2	2	9	38	6	2	2	100%	4.5	16.3%	5.1%	11.2%	4.0%	4.94	4.94	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	STL	10	10	58	247	44	13	11	100%	5.8	17.7%	5.3%	12.5%	4.3%	4.97	5.03	+0.2
2029	40	MLB MLE	STL	7	7	41	172	29	11	8	100%	5.8	17.0%	6.3%	10.7%	4.7%	5.22	5.41	-0.0
2028	39	MLB CTX	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.7%	5.3%	12.5%	4.3%	4.97	5.03	—
2029	40	MLB CTX	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.0%	6.3%	10.7%	4.7%	5.22	5.41	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	3	35	160	28	12	9	21%	2.5	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	5.6%	6.88	5.66	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		79	17	200	906	158	68	51	21%	2.5	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	5.6%	6.88	5.66	-2.5
Career	—	MLE		193	157	922	3772	767	260	106	81%	4.8	20.3%	6.9%	13.4%	2.8%	3.73	3.79	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	34	200	819	166	56	23	81%	4.8	20.3%	6.9%	13.4%	2.8%	3.73	3.79	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 153 IPFIP 4.52 → 5.34 (+0.82)K% 19.4% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.41%	—	×0.860	16.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.93%	—	×0.900	4.44%
HR / BF /BF	4.44%	÷0.869	×1.100	5.62%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 4.52 → 5.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 47 IPFIP 4.92 → 5.45 (+0.53)K% 24.8% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.77%	—	×0.860	21.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.54%	—	×0.900	5.89%
HR / BF /BF	5.61%	÷0.996	×1.100	6.19%

Result: FIP 4.92 → 5.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 112 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.33 (+0.44)K% 27.9% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.90%	—	×0.880	24.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.36%	—	×1.050	5.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.68%	÷1.016	×1.100	2.90%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASan Antonio Missions · 76 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.38 (+0.54)K% 25.8% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.80%	—	×0.880	22.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.24%	—	×1.050	9.70%
HR / BF /BF	3.18%	÷0.977	×1.100	3.59%

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 72 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.19 (+0.24)K% 20.1% → 17.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.13%	—	×0.880	17.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.92%	—	×1.050	8.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.99%	÷1.124	×1.100	0.97%

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AABiloxi Shuckers · 142 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.21 (+0.32)K% 25.4% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.44%	—	×0.810	20.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.05%	—	×1.100	6.65%
HR / BF /BF	2.14%	÷1.393	×1.200	1.84%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 179).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 103 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.45 (+0.45)K% 24.8% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.78%	—	×0.880	21.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.03%	—	×1.050	6.33%
HR / BF /BF	2.23%	÷0.973	×1.100	2.52%

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 44 IPFIP 2.42 → 2.89 (+0.47)K% 27.6% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.810	22.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.05%	—	×1.100	8.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.15%	÷1.371	×1.200	1.01%

Result: FIP 2.42 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Aaron Wilkerson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.0%	—	5.19	17.4%	11.8%	99	+0.25	—	—	—
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	64
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	63
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	59
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	58
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	58
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	51
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	45
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	34
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	33
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	28
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	27

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	74	17.0%	5.9%	1.73	5.31
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Kris Wilson ('06)	1.2	81	13.0%	6.2%	1.96	5.44
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Wilkerson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.0%	—	5.19	17.4%	11.8%	99	+0.25	—	—	—
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	64
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	63
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	59
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	58
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	58
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	51
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	45
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	34
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	33
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	28
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	27

Aaron Wilkerson

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps