Michael Mariot

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 38 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	34	MIX2 levels	13	11	54	6.33	6.19	17.4%	9.5%	-0.5	K 15.0% · BB 8.6% · FIP 6.18
2024	35	AAASEA	28	25	126	5.84	4.45	18.7%	6.1%	—	K 16.1% · BB 5.5% · FIP 4.49
2025	36	AAASEA	23	8	69	5.74	4.75	16.1%	7.7%	—	K 13.8% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.52
2026	37	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	38	MLBSEA	6	0	6	4.99	4.99	13.5%	7.4%	-0.0
2028PROJMLE	39	MLBSEA	—	—	0	5.18	5.35	13.4%	8.3%	—
2029PROJMLE	40	MLBSEA	—	—	0	5.47	5.71	13.0%	9.1%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2016

K%61

xwOBA vs58

FB Velo40

CompsJonathan Castellanos (age 37) · Juan Sandoval (age 38) · Brian Sweeney (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%13.5%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p4624.7%

p6124.2%

xwOBA vs

p580.304

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2014	25	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	17	0	25	118	21	11	2	0%	1.5	17.8%	9.3%	8.5%	1.8%	6.48	3.78	+0.2
2014	25	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	17	0	25	118	21	11	2	0%	1.5	17.8%	9.3%	8.5%	1.7%	6.48	3.78	+0.2
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	65	267	73	17	4	0%	1.5	24.8%	6.2%	18.7%	1.1%	2.35	2.40	+1.7
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	65	267	73	17	4	0%	1.5	27.3%	6.4%	21.0%	1.5%	2.35	2.44	+1.7
2016	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	57	2	62	255	55	29	11	4%	1.1	20.3%	12.3%	8.1%	3.8%	4.48	5.00	-0.3
2016	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	57	2	62	255	55	29	11	4%	1.1	21.6%	11.4%	10.2%	4.3%	4.48	5.03	-0.3
2017	28	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	45	0	57	245	63	21	5	0%	1.3	22.6%	9.0%	13.6%	2.2%	4.42	3.51	—
2017	28	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	45	0	57	245	63	21	5	0%	1.3	25.7%	8.6%	17.1%	2.0%	4.42	3.14	—
2018	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	3	51	214	56	13	8	9%	1.5	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	4.4%	5.47	4.62	—
2018	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	3	51	214	56	13	8	9%	1.5	26.2%	6.1%	20.1%	3.7%	5.47	3.71	—
2019	30	AAA MLE	Tecos de los Dos Laredos	8	7	33	151	34	16	5	88%	4.1	19.8%	11.1%	8.7%	4.0%	5.79	5.01	—
2019	30	AAA RAW	Tecos de los Dos Laredos	8	7	33	151	34	16	5	88%	4.1	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	3.3%	5.79	4.48	—
2021	32	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	19	18	103	430	83	30	15	95%	5.4	17.0%	7.3%	9.7%	3.5%	4.02	4.53	—
2021	32	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	19	18	103	430	83	30	15	95%	5.4	19.3%	7.0%	12.3%	3.5%	4.02	4.26	—
2022	33	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	18	15	79	344	56	32	15	83%	4.4	14.3%	9.8%	4.6%	4.7%	4.90	5.69	—
2022	33	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	18	15	79	344	56	32	15	83%	4.4	16.3%	9.3%	7.0%	4.4%	4.90	5.37	—
2023	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	54	242	42	23	14	85%	4.2	15.0%	8.6%	6.4%	5.9%	6.33	6.18	-0.5
2023	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	54	242	42	23	14	85%	4.2	17.4%	9.5%	7.9%	5.8%	6.33	6.19	-0.5
2024	35	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	28	25	126	541	101	33	21	89%	4.5	16.1%	5.5%	10.6%	3.7%	5.84	4.49	—
2024	35	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	28	25	126	541	101	33	21	89%	4.5	16.1%	5.5%	10.6%	3.7%	5.84	4.49	—
2024	35	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	28	25	126	541	101	33	21	89%	4.5	18.7%	6.1%	12.6%	3.9%	5.84	4.45	—
2025	36	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	23	8	69	323	52	25	11	35%	3.0	13.8%	7.0%	6.9%	3.1%	5.74	4.52	—
2025	36	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	23	8	69	323	52	25	11	35%	3.0	13.8%	7.0%	6.9%	3.1%	5.74	4.52	—
2025	36	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	23	8	69	323	52	25	11	35%	3.0	16.1%	7.7%	8.4%	3.4%	5.74	4.75	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			45	0	52	238	47	27	9	0%	1.2	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	3.8%	5.85	5.09	-0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	SEA	6	0	6	25	3	2	1	0%	1.0	13.5%	7.4%	6.1%	3.1%	4.99	4.99	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	SEA	33	0	34	146	19	12	5	0%	1.0	13.4%	8.3%	5.1%	3.6%	5.18	5.35	-0.3
2029	40	MLB MLE	SEA	23	0	25	104	13	9	4	0%	1.1	13.0%	9.1%	3.9%	4.0%	5.47	5.71	-0.3
2028	39	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.4%	8.3%	5.1%	3.6%	5.18	5.35	—
2029	40	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	13.0%	9.1%	3.9%	4.0%	5.47	5.71	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		45	0	52	238	47	27	9	0%	1.2	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	3.8%	5.85	4.95	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		172	0	200	910	180	103	34	0%	1.2	19.7%	11.3%	8.4%	3.8%	5.85	4.95	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		307	89	724	3130	561	252	111	29%	2.4	17.9%	8.0%	9.9%	3.6%	4.96	4.56	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	25	200	864	155	70	31	29%	2.4	17.9%	8.0%	9.9%	3.6%	4.96	4.56	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 69 IPFIP 4.59 → 4.52 (−0.07)K% 16.1% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.10%	—	×0.860	13.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.74%	—	×0.900	6.97%
HR / BF /BF	3.41%	÷1.204	×1.100	3.11%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).

Result: FIP 4.59 → 4.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 126 IPFIP 4.43 → 4.49 (+0.06)K% 18.7% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.67%	—	×0.860	16.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.10%	—	×0.900	5.49%
HR / BF /BF	3.88%	÷1.142	×1.100	3.74%

Result: FIP 4.43 → 4.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 51 IPFIP 5.96 → 6.18 (+0.22)K% 17.5% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.47%	—	×0.860	15.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.61%	—	×0.900	8.65%
HR / BF /BF	5.68%	÷1.054	×1.100	5.93%

Result: FIP 5.96 → 6.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 79 IPFIP 5.30 → 5.69 (+0.40)K% 16.3% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.28%	—	×0.880	14.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×1.050	9.77%
HR / BF /BF	4.36%	÷1.026	×1.100	4.68%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 105).

Result: FIP 5.30 → 5.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAALouisville Bats · 103 IPFIP 4.27 → 4.53 (+0.26)K% 19.3% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.30%	—	×0.880	16.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.050	7.33%
HR / BF /BF	3.49%	÷1.088	×1.100	3.53%

Result: FIP 4.27 → 4.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAATecos de los Dos Laredos · 33 IPFIP 4.36 → 5.01 (+0.65)K% 22.5% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.52%	—	×0.880	19.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.60%	—	×1.050	11.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.31%	÷0.919	×1.100	3.97%

Result: FIP 4.36 → 5.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 42 IPFIP 4.33 → 4.62 (+0.29)K% 24.7% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.73%	—	×0.880	21.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.050	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	4.40%	÷1.101	×1.100	4.39%

Result: FIP 4.33 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 9 IPFIP 0.20 → 0.75 (+0.55)K% 34.4% → 27.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.38%	—	×0.810	27.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.008	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 102).

Result: FIP 0.20 → 0.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Mariot (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	13.5%	7.4%	3.1%	—	5.50	13.2%	4.6%	59	+0.51	—	—	—
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	69
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	66
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	64
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	64
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	59
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	57
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	49
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	48
Seunghwan Oh R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	37	SU	5.75	18.2%	6.8%	6.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	1.87	226	45
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	24
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	453	23
Jose Oyervides R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	37	SP	5.66	16.3%	11.2%	4.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	407	21
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	21
Ivan Maldonado R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	36	SP	5.41	6.4%	9.7%	3.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	172	17
Pablo Ortega R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	38	SP	4.52	8.6%	7.3%	2.2%	.291	4.24	11.5%	6.0%	236	-0.28	4.01	375	16
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	10
Jorge Castillo L 2019 · 4.91 FIP	37	SP	4.91	19.6%	8.1%	4.5%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	408	8
Oscar Rivera L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	36	SP	5.80	9.8%	7.8%	4.6%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.68	237	6
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	0

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	34	15.4%	9.4%	1.37	5.36
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*