Kenten Egbert — OGILVIE

Kenten Egbert P South Bend Cubs

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.20

FIP5.20

K%10.2%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%1.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	16	98	393	104	32	8	70%	4.2	19.6%	9.6%	10.0%	2.9%	3.04	4.26	—
2024	23	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	16	98	393	104	32	8	70%	4.2	19.6%	9.6%	10.0%	2.9%	3.04	4.26	—
2024	23	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	23	16	98	393	104	32	8	70%	4.2	26.5%	8.1%	18.3%	2.0%	3.04	3.02	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	25	17	101	434	60	25	7	68%	4.1	10.6%	6.6%	4.0%	1.8%	4.26	4.04	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	25	17	101	434	60	25	7	68%	4.1	10.6%	6.6%	4.0%	1.8%	4.26	4.04	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	25	17	101	434	60	25	7	68%	4.1	13.8%	5.8%	8.1%	1.6%	4.26	3.55	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	20	2	32	163	24	15	5	10%	1.6	11.5%	9.5%	2.0%	3.6%	7.31	5.29	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	20	2	32	163	24	15	5	10%	1.6	11.5%	9.5%	2.0%	3.6%	7.31	5.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	CHC	17	1	24	112	20	8	2	6%	1.4	17.9%	7.1%	10.7%	1.8%	6.00	3.48	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CHC	3	1	8	51	4	7	3	33%	2.7	7.8%	13.7%	-5.9%	5.9%	11.25	7.41	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CHC	6	0	6	25	3	2	1	0%	1.0	10.2%	8.7%	1.5%	2.7%	5.20	5.20	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	38	188	27	17	6	—	—	14.1%	9.1%	5.0%	3.0%	6.99	5.27	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CHC	87	0	91	385	49	33	11	0%	1.0	12.8%	8.5%	4.2%	2.7%	5.03	4.98	-0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	86	0	90	379	51	32	11	0%	1.0	13.5%	8.6%	4.9%	2.8%	4.97	4.96	-0.4
2029	28	MLB MLE	CHC	83	0	87	368	51	32	11	0%	1.0	13.8%	8.7%	5.1%	2.9%	4.98	5.01	-0.4
2030	29	MLB MLE	CHC	79	0	83	351	48	31	11	0%	1.1	13.7%	8.9%	4.9%	3.1%	5.06	5.12	-0.5
2031	30	MLB MLE	CHC	74	0	78	330	51	28	11	0%	1.1	15.4%	8.4%	7.0%	3.3%	5.04	5.03	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	CHC	37	0	39	165	21	14	4	0%	1.1	12.8%	8.5%	4.2%	2.6%	4.97	4.92	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	53	0	56	236	32	20	6	0%	1.1	13.5%	8.6%	4.9%	2.7%	4.91	4.90	-0.3
2029	28	MLB CTX	CHC	62	0	65	274	38	24	8	0%	1.0	13.8%	8.7%	5.1%	2.8%	4.92	4.95	-0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	CHC	65	0	68	287	39	25	8	0%	1.0	13.7%	8.9%	4.9%	2.9%	5.00	5.06	-0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	CHC	64	0	67	283	44	24	9	0%	1.0	15.4%	8.4%	7.0%	3.1%	4.97	4.96	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		282	0	296	1250	174	107	36	0%	1.0	13.9%	8.6%	5.3%	2.9%	4.96	4.59	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	118	72	24	0%	1.1	13.9%	8.6%	5.3%	2.9%	4.96	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		68	35	231	990	142	82	25	51%	3.4	14.3%	8.3%	6.0%	2.5%	4.17	4.33	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	30	200	857	123	71	22	51%	3.4	14.3%	8.3%	6.0%	2.5%	4.17	4.33	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kenten Egbert (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.20	10.2%	8.7%	2.7%	—	4.98	13.3%	4.7%	268	-0.22	—	—	—
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	88
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	84
Joel De La Cruz R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	10.3%	6.7%	2.0%	.276	4.61	14.4%	5.8%	120	+0.42	4.19	205	84
Alex Sanabia R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	26	SP-	4.44	11.4%	7.9%	2.4%	.358	3.66	11.1%	6.2%	161	-0.78	3.42	378	84
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	83
Abel Amaya R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	7.0%	4.9%	2.3%	.264	6.88	8.5%	5.1%	12	+2.50	4.38	109	82
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	82
Kelvis Valerio R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	11.7%	7.1%	2.1%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	266	82
Sugar Ray Marimon R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SW	4.12	12.4%	9.1%	1.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	107	82
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	81
Drasen Johnson R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	24	SW	4.70	9.6%	5.7%	3.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	110	80
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	80
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	79
Blake McKnight R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	7.0%	10.8%	0.9%	.277	4.82	9.5%	0.1%	39	+0.43	3.24	225	79
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	79
Tyler Santana R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	25	SW	4.43	15.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.306	4.90	15.1%	4.9%	191	+0.47	3.37	399	79
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	79
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	78
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	78
Jose Reyes R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	25	SW	5.11	11.0%	8.2%	3.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	225	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	83	13.3%	8.6%	1.13	5.04
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74