Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 26 | 6 | 80 | 350 | 59 | 37 | 10 | 23% | 3.1 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 5.08 | 5.35 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 26 | 6 | 80 | 350 | 59 | 37 | 10 | 23% | 3.1 | 16.9% | 10.6% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 5.08 | 4.64 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 69 | 286 | 80 | 23 | 3 | 3% | 2.2 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 1.0% | 2.73 | 2.99 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 69 | 286 | 80 | 23 | 3 | 3% | 2.2 | 28.0% | 8.0% | 19.9% | 1.0% | 2.73 | 2.35 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 24 | 0 | 48 | 215 | 62 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 2.0 | 23.4% | 13.3% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 6.33 | 5.26 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BOS | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 56 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 118 | 511 | 118 | 56 | 16 | — | — | 23.2% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 5.31 | 4.87 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.1% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 2.6% | 4.60 | 4.22 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 57 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 55 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.67 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.59 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 33 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 55 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.26 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 164 | 86 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.61 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 81 | 7 | 197 | 851 | 158 | 97 | 24 | 9% | 2.4 | 18.6% | 11.5% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 82 | 7 | 200 | 862 | 160 | 99 | 24 | 9% | 2.4 | 18.6% | 11.5% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 4.56 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cooper Adams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 19.1% | 10.1% | 2.6% | — | 4.64 | 19.6% | 9.4% | 136 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Stephen Kohlscheen R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.95 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.02 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 90 | +0.07 | 2.39 | 167 | 86 |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 199 | 86 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.13 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .246 | 4.87 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 116 | +0.74 | 4.12 | 230 | 85 |
| Spencer Stockton R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .276 | 5.42 | 19.0% | 5.8% | 63 | +1.23 | 1.93 | 233 | 85 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.76 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 1.5% | .320 | 4.36 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 259 | +0.60 | 3.76 | 399 | 85 |
| Layne Somsen R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.04 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 154 | 84 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .318 | 3.31 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.47 | 2.46 | 362 | 84 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 84 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 84 |
| Anthony Bass R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.39 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.18 | 2.93 | 432 | 84 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 83 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.99 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.03 | 21.2% | 10.6% | 105 | +0.04 | 3.74 | 277 | 83 |
| Ryan Shreve R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.82 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .332 | 4.96 | 11.6% | 0.4% | 59 | +1.14 | 3.24 | 290 | 83 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.28 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .304 | 3.13 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 51 | -1.15 | 3.02 | 214 | 83 |
| Daniel Blair R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 17.0% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 171 | 83 |
| Cole Johnson R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.56 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .311 | 3.48 | 14.0% | 9.2% | 49 | -0.08 | 3.48 | 101 | 83 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.3% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.47 | 3.92 | 256 | 83 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .316 | 6.96 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 26 | +3.15 | 3.81 | 233 | 83 |
| Cody Hall R 2027 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.53 | 16.5% | 9.3% | 1.2% | .306 | 4.31 | 23.1% | 11.7% | 66 | +0.78 | 3.53 | 134 | 82 |
| Junior Lopez R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 1.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 128 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 1.06 | 4.61 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |