Grant Black
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 32
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%21.8%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 6 | 59 | 273 | 62 | 35 | 5 | 20% | 2.0 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 5.01 | 4.49 | — |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 6 | 59 | 273 | 62 | 35 | 5 | 20% | 2.0 | 22.7% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 1.8% | 5.01 | 3.88 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 5 | 77 | 343 | 57 | 35 | 11 | 11% | 1.7 | 14.0% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.97 | 5.11 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 5 | 77 | 343 | 57 | 35 | 11 | 11% | 1.7 | 16.6% | 10.2% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 3.97 | 4.84 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 43 | 3 | 79 | 383 | 71 | 48 | 14 | 7% | 1.8 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.61 | 5.81 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 43 | 3 | 79 | 383 | 71 | 48 | 14 | 7% | 1.8 | 18.5% | 12.5% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 6.61 | 5.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | STL | 48 | 0 | 51 | 214 | 47 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | STL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 42 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | STL | 40 | 0 | 42 | 178 | 37 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 4.96 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | STL | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.78 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | STL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 4.96 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 29 | 0 | 31 | 130 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.60 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 91 | 33 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.60 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 118 | 14 | 215 | 999 | 162 | 126 | 34 | 12% | 1.8 | 16.2% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.22 | 5.21 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 110 | 13 | 200 | 928 | 151 | 117 | 32 | 12% | 1.8 | 16.2% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 5.22 | 5.21 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Black (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 3.2% | — | 4.99 | 21.2% | 10.5% | 89 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 83 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 83 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 81 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 81 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 81 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 80 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 80 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 78 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 78 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 78 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 78 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 77 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 77 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 76 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 76 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .247 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.59 | 2.82 | 284 | 76 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 76 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.47 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .355 | 5.93 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 50 | +2.46 | 1.60 | 312 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 75 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 46 | 21.4% | 10.5% | 1.32 | 4.79 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |