Cole McDonald
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 218 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.63
FIP4.63
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%12.1%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Astros | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 4 | 4 | 10 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.86 | — | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 28 | 5 | 60 | 291 | 100 | 50 | 7 | 26.5% | 19.8% | 3.1% | 6.86 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 39 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 74 | 22 | 2 | 26.1% | 11.3% | 0.9% | 3.59 | 2.84 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 40 | 0 | 45 | 194 | 49 | 25 | 6 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | 5.44 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 22.6% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.73 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 21.9% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 4.81 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 21.6% | 11.0% | 3.5% | 4.91 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 21.2% | 11.3% | 3.6% | 5.02 | 5.10 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 112 | 10 | 169 | 756 | 197 | 116 | 19 | 26.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 5.10 | 4.18 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 12 | 200 | 893 | 233 | 137 | 22 | 26.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | 5.10 | 4.18 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole McDonald (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.72 | 22.4% | 11.8% | 106 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 85 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.75 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 3.12 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.63 | 2.31 | 187 | 85 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 84 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 83 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 83 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.95 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.92 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.03 | 3.51 | 134 | 82 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.03 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.65 | 2.38 | 160 | 82 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 81 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 80 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 80 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 80 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 80 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 80 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 80 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 79 |
| Joe Colón J R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 79 |
| Marc Magliaro R 2025 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 125 | 79 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 79 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2029 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 78 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.