Cole McDonald
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 29
RHP
6'1" / 218 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%22.7%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Astros | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.29 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | ROK | GCL Astros | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 10 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 2.4 | 46.3% | 14.6% | 31.7% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 1.04 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 4 | 10 | 41 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 2.4 | 46.3% | 14.6% | 31.7% | 0.0% | 1.86 | 1.03 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 28 | 5 | 60 | 291 | 100 | 50 | 7 | 18% | 2.2 | 26.5% | 19.8% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 6.86 | 5.12 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 28 | 5 | 60 | 291 | 100 | 50 | 7 | 18% | 2.2 | 34.4% | 17.2% | 17.2% | 2.4% | 6.86 | 3.78 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 74 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.1% | 11.3% | 14.8% | 0.7% | 3.59 | 2.72 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 74 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 33.0% | 9.8% | 23.2% | 0.9% | 3.59 | 2.04 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 45 | 194 | 49 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 5.44 | 5.38 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 45 | 194 | 49 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 5.44 | 4.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 25 | 0 | 26 | 112 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 24 | 0 | 25 | 105 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 0 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 7 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.43 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 180 | 103 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 3.4% | 4.74 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 112 | 10 | 169 | 756 | 197 | 116 | 19 | 9% | 1.5 | 26.1% | 15.3% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 5.10 | 4.21 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 12 | 200 | 893 | 233 | 136 | 23 | 9% | 1.5 | 26.1% | 15.3% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 5.10 | 4.21 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cole McDonald (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 22.7% | 10.6% | 3.2% | — | 4.81 | 22.4% | 11.6% | 25 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 84 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.19 | 24.4% | 10.9% | 3.2% | .311 | 2.38 | 20.9% | 12.6% | 25 | -1.81 | 2.38 | 160 | 83 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 83 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 83 |
| David Hernandez R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 81 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 81 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 80 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2025 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 80 |
| Javy Guerra R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 80 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 80 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 26.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .299 | 3.95 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 19 | -0.50 | 3.53 | 134 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 78 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.16 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 253 | 78 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.55 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .283 | 3.52 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | -0.03 | 3.15 | 272 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.86 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .275 | 3.73 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -1.13 | 3.40 | 295 | 78 |
| Drew Storen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 78 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2028 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 78 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 1.27 | 4.70 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |