Cole McDonald — OGILVIE

Cole McDonald P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 218 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%21.5%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	22	ROK MLE	GCL Astros	1	1	2	6	2	0	0	100%	2.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2019	22	ROK RAW	GCL Astros	1	1	2	6	2	0	0	100%	2.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	4	4	10	41	19	6	0	100%	2.4	46.3%	14.6%	31.7%	0.0%	1.86	1.04	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	4	4	10	41	19	6	0	100%	2.4	46.3%	14.6%	31.7%	0.0%	1.86	1.03	—
2022	25	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	28	5	60	291	100	50	7	18%	2.2	26.5%	19.8%	6.7%	3.1%	6.86	5.07	—
2022	25	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	28	5	60	291	100	50	7	18%	2.2	34.4%	17.2%	17.2%	2.4%	6.86	3.78	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	53	224	74	22	2	0%	1.4	26.1%	11.3%	14.8%	0.9%	3.59	2.81	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	53	224	74	22	2	0%	1.4	26.1%	11.3%	14.8%	0.9%	3.59	2.81	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	53	224	74	22	2	0%	1.4	33.0%	9.8%	23.2%	0.9%	3.59	2.04	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	45	194	49	25	6	0%	1.1	20.6%	12.7%	7.9%	3.8%	5.44	5.04	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	45	194	49	25	6	0%	1.1	20.6%	12.7%	7.9%	3.8%	5.44	5.04	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	45	194	49	25	6	0%	1.1	25.3%	12.9%	12.4%	3.1%	5.44	4.33	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	HOU	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	21.5%	11.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.84	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	HOU	24	0	25	105	22	12	3	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	3.3%	4.89	4.96	-0.1
2027	30	MLB CTX	HOU	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	3.3%	4.89	4.96	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	8	33	7	4	1	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	3.3%	4.89	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	103	26	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	3.3%	4.89	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		112	10	169	756	196	113	18	9%	1.5	26.0%	15.0%	11.0%	2.4%	5.10	4.13	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	12	200	893	232	134	22	9%	1.5	26.0%	15.0%	11.0%	2.4%	5.10	4.13	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole McDonald (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	21.5%	11.5%	3.1%	—	4.96	21.4%	9.8%	25	+0.12	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	87
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	85
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	81
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	81
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	81
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	81
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	80
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	80
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	79
Pedro Beato R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	19.2%	8.5%	3.0%	.275	3.72	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.48	3.47	295	79
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	78
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	78
Roman Mendez R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SU	4.42	20.8%	11.1%	3.0%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	230	77
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	77
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	77
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	279	77
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	77
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	21.5%	11.5%	1.25	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58