Spencer Bivens — OGILVIE

Spencer Bivens P Sacramento River Cats

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION80 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA3.86

FIP4.06

K%16.9%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p1017.0%

p2017.8%

xwOBA vs

p480.314

FB+3.6 (45%)

CT (26%)

SI (38%)

CU (5%)

SL-1.9 (14%)

CH-3.3 (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	43	188	48	22	5	0%	1.6	19.8%	13.5%	6.3%	3.1%	3.95	4.86	—
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	43	188	48	22	5	0%	1.6	25.5%	11.7%	13.8%	2.7%	3.95	3.91	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	4	93	396	92	38	6	12%	2.8	18.6%	10.6%	8.0%	1.9%	3.68	3.91	—
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	4	93	396	92	38	6	12%	2.8	18.6%	10.6%	8.0%	1.9%	3.68	3.91	—
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	4	93	396	92	38	6	12%	2.8	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	1.5%	3.68	3.19	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	2	98	407	79	25	12	4%	1.8	17.7%	5.8%	11.9%	3.2%	3.03	4.09	+0.5
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	2	98	407	79	25	12	4%	1.8	17.7%	5.8%	11.9%	3.2%	3.03	4.09	+0.5
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	2	98	407	79	25	12	4%	1.8	19.4%	6.1%	13.3%	2.9%	3.03	3.84	+0.8
2025	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	54	0	81	343	61	24	6	0%	1.5	17.8%	7.0%	10.8%	1.9%	4.00	3.52	+1.0
2025	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	54	0	81	343	61	24	6	0%	1.5	17.8%	7.0%	10.8%	1.9%	4.00	3.52	+1.0
2025	31	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	54	0	81	343	61	24	6	0%	1.5	17.8%	7.0%	10.8%	1.7%	4.00	3.45	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			85	2	135	575	106	38	16	2%	1.6	18.4%	6.6%	11.8%	2.8%	4.08	3.92	+1.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	39	7	80	362	80	31	11	18%	2.1	18.0%	7.3%	10.7%	3.3%	5.51	4.33	—
YTD	32	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	39	7	80	362	80	31	11	18%	2.1	18.0%	7.3%	10.7%	3.3%	5.51	4.33	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	AAA RAW	SF	35	7	75	332	72	27	10	20%	2.1	21.7%	8.1%	13.6%	3.0%	4.92	3.95	—
2026	32	MLB RAW	SF	4	0	5	30	8	4	1	0%	1.2	26.7%	13.3%	13.3%	3.3%	14.40	4.37	—
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	SF	4	0	5	30	8	4	1	0%	1.2	26.7%	13.3%	13.3%	3.3%	14.40	4.37	—
ROS	32	MLB MLE	SF	5	0	5	23	4	2	1	0%	1.1	16.9%	7.0%	9.9%	2.7%	3.86	4.06	+0.0
ROS	32	MLB CTX	SF	5	0	5	21	4	1	1	0%	1.0	16.9%	7.0%	9.9%	2.7%	3.86	4.06	+0.0
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	85	385	84	33	12	—	—	21.8%	8.5%	13.3%	3.0%	5.41	4.31	+0.5
FULL	32	MLB A+C	SF	—	—	10	44	84	33	12	—	—	190.6%	74.1%	116.5%	26.4%	44.34	10.89	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	SF	56	0	59	249	42	20	8	0%	1.1	16.8%	8.0%	8.9%	3.0%	4.54	4.73	-0.1
2028	34	MLB MLE	SF	51	0	54	227	36	19	8	0%	1.1	15.9%	8.5%	7.5%	3.3%	4.84	5.03	-0.3
2027	33	MLB CTX	SF	53	0	56	236	40	19	7	0%	1.1	16.8%	8.0%	8.9%	3.0%	4.54	4.73	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	SF	47	0	49	207	33	17	7	0%	1.0	15.9%	8.5%	7.5%	3.3%	4.84	5.03	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		190	2	245	1040	182	76	31	1%	1.3	17.5%	7.3%	10.2%	2.9%	4.33	4.16	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		155	2	200	850	149	62	25	1%	1.3	17.5%	7.3%	10.2%	2.9%	4.33	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		207	13	395	1696	309	141	45	6%	1.9	18.2%	8.3%	9.9%	2.6%	3.98	4.07	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	7	200	858	156	72	23	6%	1.9	18.2%	8.3%	9.9%	2.6%	3.98	4.07	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Bivens (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	16.8%	7.0%	2.7%	—	4.87	16.4%	8.2%	113	+0.43	—	—	—
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	81
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	79
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	78
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	78
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	77
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	77
Tommy Hunter R 2018 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	18.9%	5.2%	2.1%	.296	2.78	24.5%	18.6%	25	-0.52	2.78	316	77
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	77
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	76
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	76
Brad Brach R 2018 · 3.44 FIP	32	SU	3.44	20.8%	9.0%	1.7%	.338	4.06	24.4%	11.0%	97	+0.62	2.69	410	76
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	75
Jim Johnson R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	32	SU	3.34	17.2%	6.2%	1.7%	.330	3.63	22.0%	14.1%	185	+0.29	2.56	251	75
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	284	75
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	75
Joakim Soria R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	32	SU	4.33	23.2%	9.2%	3.7%	.319	2.63	28.5%	21.7%	186	-1.70	2.01	380	74
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	74
Cory Gearrin R 2018 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	8.1%	3.1%	.292	3.78	19.5%	9.5%	55	-0.24	3.15	272	73
Miguel Socolovich R 2018 · 3.55 FIP	32	SU	3.55	20.8%	5.6%	2.7%	.338	3.55	18.4%	13.7%	42	+0.00	2.65	283	73
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	16.5%	7.8%	1.17	4.53
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43