Spencer Bivens
P
Sacramento River Cats
+0.2
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.00
FIP4.21
xFIP4.26
SIERA4.02
K%18.9%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%11.6%
IP64
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
STUF3535
CTRL5555
CMD4545
K†4040
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p1017.0%
K%
p2017.8%
xwOBA vs
p480.314
FB+3.6 (45%)
CT (26%)
SI (38%)
CU (5%)
SL-1.9 (14%)
CH-3.3 (15%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 27 | 0 | 43 | 188 | 48 | 22 | 5 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 3.95 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 29 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 33 | 4 | 93 | 396 | 92 | 38 | 6 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 1.9% | 3.68 | 3.92 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 54 | 2 | 98 | 407 | 79 | 25 | 12 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 3.03 | 4.16 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 54 | 0 | 81 | 343 | 61 | 24 | 6 | 17.8% | 7.0% | 1.8% | 4.00 | 3.45 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | 6 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.12 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SF | 26 | — | 26 | 109 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 4.40 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | SF | — | — | 34 | 147 | 27 | 10 | 5 | 18.7% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 3.85 | 3.29 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 45 | 20 | 7 | 17.2% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SF | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 41 | 19 | 7 | 16.5% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | SF | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 36 | 19 | 7 | 15.7% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | SF | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 32 | 18 | 7 | 14.9% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 174 | 6 | 324 | 1372 | 254 | 119 | 35 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 4.03 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 107 | 4 | 200 | 847 | 157 | 73 | 22 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 3.58 | 4.03 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Bivens (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 2.7% | — | 4.66 | 16.5% | 8.7% | 175 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Hector Ambriz R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 79 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 79 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 79 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 78 |
| Hector Navarro R 2029 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 78 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 78 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 78 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 77 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 77 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2024 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 101 | 77 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.34 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.67 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.33 | 2.57 | 251 | 77 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.87 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.27 | 3.12 | 352 | 77 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 76 |
| Elian Leyva R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 158 | 76 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 76 |
| Erik Davis R 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 227 | 76 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 76 |
| Tyler Herron R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.99 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 117 | 75 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 125 | 75 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.29 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.73 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.56 | 2.73 | 316 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.