Spencer Bivens
P
Sacramento River Cats
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 41 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 97
ERA4.25
FIP4.46
K%16.8%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%9.7%
ROS IP41
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p1017.0%
K%
p2017.8%
xwOBA vs
p480.314
FB+3.6 (45%)
CT (26%)
SI (38%)
CU (5%)
SL-1.9 (14%)
CH-3.3 (15%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 43 | 188 | 48 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 3.95 | 4.81 | — |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 43 | 188 | 48 | 22 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.5% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.91 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 4 | 93 | 396 | 92 | 38 | 6 | 12% | 2.8 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 1.9% | 3.68 | 3.94 | — |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 4 | 93 | 396 | 92 | 38 | 6 | 12% | 2.8 | 23.2% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 1.5% | 3.68 | 3.19 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 2 | 98 | 407 | 79 | 25 | 12 | 4% | 1.8 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 3.03 | 4.12 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 2 | 98 | 407 | 79 | 25 | 12 | 4% | 1.8 | 19.4% | 6.1% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 3.03 | 3.84 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 54 | 0 | 81 | 343 | 61 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.8% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 1.9% | 4.00 | 3.53 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 54 | 0 | 81 | 343 | 61 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.8% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 1.7% | 4.00 | 3.45 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 25 | 6 | 52 | 224 | 46 | 18 | 5 | 24% | 2.1 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 4.07 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SF | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 29 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | SF | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 29 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | SF | — | — | 93 | 398 | 75 | 30 | 10 | — | — | 18.9% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | SF | — | — | 43 | 182 | 75 | 30 | 10 | — | — | 41.3% | 16.7% | 24.6% | 5.3% | 9.05 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SF | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 40 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SF | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | SF | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 38 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | SF | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 31 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 4.84 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 222 | 2 | 278 | 1171 | 199 | 82 | 34 | 1% | 1.3 | 17.0% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.13 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 160 | 1 | 200 | 844 | 143 | 59 | 25 | 1% | 1.3 | 17.0% | 7.0% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.11 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 193 | 12 | 367 | 1558 | 285 | 136 | 39 | 6% | 1.9 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 4.02 | +5.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 7 | 200 | 848 | 155 | 74 | 21 | 6% | 1.9 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 3.68 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Bivens (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 2.7% | — | 4.88 | 15.6% | 7.7% | 113 | +0.42 | — | — | — |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 81 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 78 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 78 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 77 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 77 |
| Erik Davis R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 227 | 76 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 76 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2029 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 75 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.80 | 13.5% | 6.7% | 3.6% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 149 | 75 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 73 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 73 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .338 | 4.07 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.63 | 2.73 | 410 | 73 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 73 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 12.3% | 5.6% | 1.8% | .265 | 4.08 | 12.5% | 5.9% | 144 | +0.30 | 3.21 | 209 | 73 |
| Hector Navarro R 2029 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 73 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2024 · 4.45 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.45 | 11.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 135 | 73 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 52 | 15.9% | 7.6% | 1.17 | 4.56 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |