Ryan Brasier

P Round Rock Express

Age 39 RHP 6'0" / 223 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	36	MIX2 levels	37	4	36	2.75	2.63	26.6%	4.3%	0.8	K 22.7% · BB 4.5% · FIP 3.19
2025	37	MIX2 levels	38	1	35	4.67	3.53	18.9%	7.0%	0.4	K 19.0% · BB 4.8% · FIP 3.18
2026	38	AAATEX	22	2	23	3.97	3.01	24.5%	6.4%	—	K 21.0% · BB 5.7% · FIP 3.34
2027PROJ	39	MLBTEX	5	0	5	4.02	3.95	20.7%	5.6%	0.0
2028PROJMLE	40	MLBTEX	—	—	0	4.24	4.38	19.6%	6.3%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo43

K%28

xwOBA vs26

CompsTakashi Saito (age 39) · Erubiel Gonzalez (age 38) · Keiichi Yabu (age 39)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA4.02

FIP3.95

K%20.7%

BB%5.6%

K-BB%15.1%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6565

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2013	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	7	0	9	35	7	4	1	0%	1.3	20.0%	11.4%	8.6%	2.9%	2.00	4.43	+0.0
2013	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	7	0	9	35	7	4	1	0%	1.3	20.0%	11.4%	8.6%	2.9%	2.00	4.32	+0.0
2015	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	7	27	7	1	0	17%	1.2	25.9%	3.7%	22.2%	0.0%	2.57	1.38	—
2015	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	1	7	27	7	1	0	17%	1.2	25.9%	3.7%	22.2%	0.0%	2.57	1.53	—
2016	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	46	0	61	246	70	18	6	0%	1.3	25.0%	7.7%	17.4%	3.1%	3.56	3.68	—
2016	28	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	46	0	61	246	70	18	6	0%	1.3	28.5%	7.3%	21.1%	2.4%	3.56	2.97	—
2018	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	74	275	69	13	3	0%	1.1	23.3%	4.8%	18.5%	1.0%	1.46	2.31	+2.0
2018	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	74	275	69	13	3	0%	1.1	25.1%	4.7%	20.4%	1.1%	1.46	2.29	+2.0
2019	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	65	277	74	21	10	0%	0.9	25.3%	8.3%	17.0%	3.8%	4.29	4.12	+0.3
2019	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	72	0	65	277	74	21	10	0%	0.9	26.7%	7.6%	19.1%	3.6%	4.29	3.79	+0.6
2020	32	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	25	1	25	110	30	10	2	4%	1.0	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	1.9%	3.96	2.97	+0.5
2020	32	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	25	1	25	110	30	10	2	4%	1.0	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	1.8%	3.96	2.94	+0.5
2021	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	0	20	85	14	7	3	0%	0.9	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	4.1%	5.49	4.85	-0.1
2021	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	0	20	85	14	7	3	0%	0.9	16.5%	8.2%	8.2%	3.5%	5.49	4.73	-0.0
2022	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	64	269	67	12	9	0%	0.9	24.3%	4.6%	19.8%	3.5%	5.60	3.55	+0.8
2022	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	64	269	67	12	9	0%	0.9	24.9%	4.5%	20.4%	3.3%	5.60	3.40	+0.9
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	63	247	61	18	3	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.6%	16.0%	1.2%	2.87	2.73	+1.4
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	63	247	61	18	3	0%	1.0	24.7%	7.3%	17.4%	1.2%	2.87	2.64	+1.4
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	4	36	139	37	6	3	11%	1.0	22.7%	4.5%	18.2%	2.6%	2.75	3.19	+0.6
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	4	36	139	37	6	3	11%	1.0	22.7%	4.5%	18.2%	2.6%	2.75	3.19	+0.6
2024	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	4	36	139	37	6	3	11%	1.0	26.6%	4.3%	22.3%	2.2%	2.75	2.63	+0.8
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	35	143	27	10	3	3%	0.9	19.0%	4.8%	14.3%	2.0%	4.67	3.18	+0.6
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	35	143	27	10	3	3%	0.9	19.0%	4.8%	14.3%	2.0%	4.67	3.18	+0.6
2025	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	35	143	27	10	3	3%	0.9	18.9%	7.0%	11.9%	2.1%	4.67	3.53	+0.4
2026	38	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	22	2	23	94	23	6	2	9%	1.0	21.0%	5.7%	15.3%	2.3%	3.97	3.34	—
2026	38	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	22	2	23	94	23	6	2	9%	1.0	21.0%	5.7%	15.3%	2.3%	3.97	3.34	—
2026	38	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	22	2	23	94	23	6	2	9%	1.0	24.5%	6.4%	18.1%	2.1%	3.97	3.01	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			325	6	311	1276	301	85	33	2%	1.0	23.6%	6.7%	16.9%	2.6%	3.90	3.36	+4.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	39	MLB	TEX	5	0	5	21	4	1	1	0%	1.0	20.7%	5.6%	15.1%	2.8%	4.02	3.95	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	40	MLB MLE	TEX	31	0	32	136	27	9	4	0%	1.0	19.6%	6.3%	13.3%	3.2%	4.24	4.38	+0.1
2028	40	MLB CTX	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.6%	6.3%	13.3%	3.2%	4.24	4.38	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		325	6	311	1276	301	85	33	2%	1.0	23.6%	6.7%	16.9%	2.6%	3.90	3.37	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		209	4	200	820	193	55	21	2%	1.0	23.6%	6.7%	16.9%	2.6%	3.90	3.37	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		473	9	481	1947	457	126	49	2%	1.0	23.5%	6.5%	17.0%	2.5%	3.61	3.32	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		197	4	200	810	190	53	20	2%	1.0	23.5%	6.5%	17.0%	2.5%	3.61	3.32	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 23 IPFIP 3.01 → 3.34 (+0.33)K% 24.5% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.47%	—	×0.860	21.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.38%	—	×0.900	5.74%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.34%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.01 → 3.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 9 IPFIP 4.66 → 4.67 (+0.02)K% 18.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.42%	—	×0.860	15.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.16%	—	×0.900	11.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.125	×1.100	2.57%

Result: FIP 4.66 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOklahoma City Baseball Club · 8 IPFIP 0.04 → 0.49 (+0.45)K% 41.4% → 35.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.38%	—	×0.860	35.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×0.900	3.10%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.896	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.04 → 0.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 5 IPFIP 5.80 → 5.64 (−0.17)K% 12.0% → 10.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.00%	—	×0.880	10.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.00%	—	×1.050	12.60%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.318	×1.100	3.34%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 164).

Result: FIP 5.80 → 5.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 9 IPFIP 1.93 → 2.40 (+0.48)K% 36.1% → 31.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.11%	—	×0.880	31.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.78%	—	×1.050	2.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.78%	÷1.038	×1.100	2.95%

Result: FIP 1.93 → 2.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 40 IPFIP 1.73 → 1.96 (+0.23)K% 26.5% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.49%	—	×0.880	23.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.97%	—	×1.050	4.17%
HR / BF /BF	0.66%	÷1.342	×1.100	0.54%

Result: FIP 1.73 → 1.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANashville Sounds · 61 IPFIP 2.96 → 3.68 (+0.72)K% 28.5% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.46%	—	×0.880	25.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.050	7.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.856	×1.100	3.13%

Result: FIP 2.96 → 3.68, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKAZL Athletics · 5 IPFIP 2.09 → 2.76 (+0.67)K% 19.0% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.680	12.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.250	5.95%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 2.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

	Profile at Match Age	Next 3 Yrs	Career
Ryan Brasier (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.95	20.7%	5.6%	2.8%	—	4.38	19.6%	13.3%	32	+0.43	—	—	—
Takashi Saito R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	39	SU	3.86	21.7%	9.6%	2.5%	.277	3.07	26.7%	20.0%	93	-0.79	1.50	338	76
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	70
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	69
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	67
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	65
Koji Uehara R 2014 · 3.05 FIP	39	SU	3.05	32.1%	3.2%	4.1%	.272	3.11	30.7%	25.5%	130	+0.06	1.28	481	44
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	38
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	32

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	44	22.9%	6.7%	1.03	3.95
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Fernando Salas ('19)	2.4	54	23.1%	7.3%	1.05	3.91
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Brasier (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.95	20.7%	5.6%	2.8%	—	4.38	19.6%	13.3%	32	+0.43	—	—	—
Takashi Saito R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	39	SU	3.86	21.7%	9.6%	2.5%	.277	3.07	26.7%	20.0%	93	-0.79	1.50	338	76
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	70
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	69
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	67
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	65
Koji Uehara R 2014 · 3.05 FIP	39	SU	3.05	32.1%	3.2%	4.1%	.272	3.11	30.7%	25.5%	130	+0.06	1.28	481	44
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	38
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	32

Ryan Brasier

Contract

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Path Comps

Career Comps