Ryan Brasier — OGILVIE

Ryan Brasier P Round Rock Express

Age 38 RHP 6'0" / 223 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 89

ERA3.85

FIP3.81

K%21.0%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%15.6%

ROS IP50

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6565

CMD5555

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

FB+4.0 (52%)

CT+0.8 (13%)

SI (17%)

SL-3.1 (35%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	7	27	7	1	0	17%	1.2	25.9%	3.7%	22.2%	0.0%	2.57	1.38	—
2015	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	1	7	27	7	1	0	17%	1.2	25.9%	3.7%	22.2%	0.0%	2.57	1.53	—
2016	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	46	0	61	246	70	18	6	0%	1.3	25.0%	7.7%	17.4%	3.1%	3.56	3.68	—
2016	28	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	46	0	61	246	70	18	6	0%	1.3	28.5%	7.3%	21.1%	2.4%	3.56	2.97	—
2018	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	74	275	69	13	3	0%	1.1	23.3%	4.8%	18.5%	1.0%	1.46	2.31	+2.0
2018	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	74	275	69	13	3	0%	1.1	25.1%	4.7%	20.4%	1.1%	1.46	2.29	+2.0
2019	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	65	277	74	21	10	0%	0.9	25.3%	8.3%	17.0%	3.8%	4.29	4.12	+0.3
2019	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	72	0	65	277	74	21	10	0%	0.9	26.7%	7.6%	19.1%	3.6%	4.29	3.79	+0.6
2020	32	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	25	1	25	110	30	10	2	4%	1.0	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	1.9%	3.96	2.97	+0.5
2020	32	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	25	1	25	110	30	10	2	4%	1.0	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	1.8%	3.96	2.94	+0.5
2021	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	0	20	85	14	7	3	0%	0.9	18.0%	8.0%	10.0%	4.1%	5.49	4.85	-0.1
2021	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	0	20	85	14	7	3	0%	0.9	16.5%	8.2%	8.2%	3.5%	5.49	4.73	-0.0
2022	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	64	269	67	12	9	0%	0.9	24.3%	4.6%	19.8%	3.5%	5.60	3.55	+0.8
2022	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	64	269	67	12	9	0%	0.9	24.9%	4.5%	20.4%	3.3%	5.60	3.40	+0.9
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	63	247	61	18	3	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.6%	16.0%	1.2%	2.87	2.73	+1.4
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	63	247	61	18	3	0%	1.0	23.5%	7.6%	16.0%	1.2%	2.87	2.73	+1.4
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	63	247	61	18	3	0%	1.0	24.7%	7.3%	17.4%	1.2%	2.87	2.64	+1.4
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	4	36	139	37	6	3	11%	1.0	22.7%	4.5%	18.2%	2.6%	2.75	3.19	+0.6
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	4	36	139	37	6	3	11%	1.0	22.7%	4.5%	18.2%	2.6%	2.75	3.19	+0.6
2024	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	4	36	139	37	6	3	11%	1.0	26.6%	4.3%	22.3%	2.2%	2.75	2.63	+0.8
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	35	143	27	10	3	3%	0.9	19.0%	4.8%	14.3%	2.0%	4.67	3.18	+0.6
2025	37	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	35	143	27	10	3	3%	0.9	19.0%	4.8%	14.3%	2.0%	4.67	3.18	+0.6
2025	37	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	35	143	27	10	3	3%	0.9	18.9%	7.0%	11.9%	2.1%	4.67	3.53	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			318	6	302	1241	294	81	32	2%	1.0	23.7%	6.5%	17.2%	2.6%	3.96	3.33	+4.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	38	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	22	2	23	94	23	6	2	9%	1.0	20.3%	5.7%	14.6%	2.3%	3.97	3.40	—
YTD	38	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	22	2	23	94	23	6	2	9%	1.0	20.3%	5.7%	14.6%	2.3%	3.97	3.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	38	AAA RAW	TEX	22	2	23	94	23	6	2	9%	1.0	24.5%	6.4%	18.1%	2.1%	3.97	3.01	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	TEX	41	0	43	182	36	11	6	0%	1.1	19.9%	6.1%	13.7%	3.0%	4.09	4.25	+0.2
2027	39	MLB CTX	TEX	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.9%	6.1%	13.7%	3.0%	4.09	4.25	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		318	6	302	1241	294	81	32	2%	1.0	23.7%	6.5%	17.2%	2.6%	3.96	3.34	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		210	4	200	821	194	54	21	2%	1.0	23.7%	6.5%	17.2%	2.6%	3.96	3.34	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		466	9	472	1912	450	122	48	2%	1.0	23.5%	6.4%	17.1%	2.5%	3.64	3.30	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		198	4	200	811	191	52	20	2%	1.0	23.5%	6.4%	17.1%	2.5%	3.64	3.30	+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Brasier (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.81	21.0%	5.4%	2.6%	—	4.25	19.9%	13.7%	43	+0.44	—	—	—
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	85
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	74
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	73
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	71
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	69
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	69
Peter Moylan R 2017 · 3.63 FIP	38	SU	3.63	18.9%	9.1%	1.8%	.211	4.77	17.8%	6.2%	28	+1.14	3.11	174	66
Matt Belisle R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	38	SU	4.60	15.4%	6.2%	3.7%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	174	65
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	65
Ervin Santana R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	38	SU	4.40	18.8%	7.6%	3.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	720	64
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	63
Manny Acosta R 2019 · 3.08 FIP	38	SU	3.08	23.2%	13.3%	0.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	102	61
Luis Ayala R 2016 · 3.03 FIP	38	SU	3.03	10.9%	4.5%	0.5%	.320	4.00	15.9%	4.2%	14	+0.97	3.03	119	59
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	58
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	56
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	56
Santiago Casilla R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	38	SU	4.14	16.8%	15.2%	1.0%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	51
Brad Ziegler R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	38	SU	4.03	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	257	48
Daniel Bard R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	38	SU	4.95	20.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	200	44
Neal Cotts L 2017 · 3.21 FIP	37	SU	3.21	25.5%	8.0%	2.3%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	156	38

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	47	20.5%	5.7%	1.08	3.96
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66