Ryan Brasier
P
Round Rock Express
Age 38
RHP
6'0" / 223 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 50 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10797vR 88
ERA3.85
FIP3.82
K%21.0%
BB%5.4%
K-BB%15.6%
ROS IP50
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1820.8%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
FB+4.0 (52%)
CT+0.8 (13%)
SI (17%)
SL-3.1 (35%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17% | 1.2 | 25.9% | 3.7% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 1.38 | — |
| 2015 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 17% | 1.2 | 25.9% | 3.7% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 2.57 | 1.53 | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 46 | 0 | 61 | 246 | 70 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 17.4% | 3.8% | 3.56 | 4.03 | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 46 | 0 | 61 | 246 | 70 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 28.5% | 7.3% | 21.1% | 2.4% | 3.56 | 2.97 | — |
| 2018 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 74 | 275 | 69 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 4.8% | 18.5% | 1.0% | 1.46 | 2.27 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 74 | 275 | 69 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 4.7% | 20.4% | 1.1% | 1.46 | 2.29 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 72 | 0 | 65 | 277 | 74 | 21 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 17.0% | 3.7% | 4.29 | 4.04 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 72 | 0 | 65 | 277 | 74 | 21 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.7% | 7.6% | 19.1% | 3.6% | 4.29 | 3.79 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 25 | 1 | 25 | 110 | 30 | 10 | 2 | 4% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 18.2% | 1.8% | 3.96 | 2.94 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 25 | 1 | 25 | 110 | 30 | 10 | 2 | 4% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 9.1% | 18.2% | 1.8% | 3.96 | 2.94 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 0 | 20 | 85 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 5.49 | 4.77 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 21 | 0 | 20 | 85 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 5.49 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 67 | 12 | 9 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.3% | 4.6% | 19.8% | 3.4% | 5.60 | 3.48 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 34 | MIX | 2 levels | 70 | 0 | 64 | 269 | 67 | 12 | 9 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.9% | 4.5% | 20.4% | 3.3% | 5.60 | 3.40 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 63 | 247 | 61 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 7.6% | 16.0% | 1.3% | 2.87 | 2.80 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 63 | 247 | 61 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.7% | 7.3% | 17.4% | 1.2% | 2.87 | 2.64 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 4 | 36 | 139 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 11% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 4.5% | 18.2% | 2.9% | 2.75 | 3.34 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 4 | 36 | 139 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 11% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 4.3% | 22.3% | 2.2% | 2.75 | 2.63 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 35 | 143 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 3% | 0.9 | 19.0% | 4.8% | 14.3% | 1.9% | 4.67 | 3.11 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 37 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 1 | 35 | 143 | 27 | 10 | 3 | 3% | 0.9 | 18.9% | 7.0% | 11.9% | 2.1% | 4.67 | 3.53 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 22 | 2 | 23 | 94 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 9% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 6.7% | 14.8% | 2.3% | 3.97 | 3.42 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 38 | MLB | TEX | 48 | 0 | 50 | 212 | 45 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 5.4% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 38 | MLB | TEX | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 5.4% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 3.82 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 38 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 73 | 306 | 68 | 17 | 8 | — | — | 22.1% | 5.7% | 16.4% | 2.5% | 3.89 | 3.69 | +1.0 |
| 2026 FULL | 38 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 5 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 21.0% | 5.4% | 15.6% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 3.44 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | TEX | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 36 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | TEX | 35 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 29 | 11 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 6.8% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.45 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | TEX | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 24 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 4.85 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.9% | 6.1% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 4.09 | 4.25 | — |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.7% | 6.8% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 4.45 | 4.69 | — |
| 2029 | 41 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.6% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 4.85 | 5.12 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 323 | 6 | 307 | 1262 | 298 | 82 | 33 | 2% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 6.5% | 17.1% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 3.34 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 210 | 4 | 200 | 821 | 194 | 53 | 21 | 2% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 6.5% | 17.1% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 3.34 | +4.8 | ||
| Career | — | 466 | 9 | 472 | 1912 | 451 | 123 | 49 | 2% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 6.5% | 17.1% | 2.6% | 3.64 | 3.33 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 198 | 4 | 200 | 811 | 191 | 52 | 21 | 2% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 6.5% | 17.1% | 2.6% | 3.64 | 3.33 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Brasier (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.82 | 21.0% | 5.4% | 2.6% | — | 4.64 | 18.8% | 12.1% | 112 | +0.82 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 82 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 74 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 73 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 69 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.66 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | .388 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 119 | 69 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 69 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.61 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .211 | 4.77 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.16 | 3.10 | 174 | 64 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 63 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.38 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 720 | 63 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 63 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 62 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.04 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.04 | 23.2% | 13.3% | 0.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 102 | 60 |
| Luis Ayala R 2026 · 2.99 FIP | 38 | SU | 2.99 | 10.9% | 4.5% | 0.4% | .320 | 3.94 | 15.9% | 4.2% | 14 | +0.95 | 2.99 | 119 | 58 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2024 · 3.54 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.54 | 10.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 128 | 58 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 56 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 56 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 50 |
| Brad Ziegler R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.88 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.61 | 257 | 47 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 43 |
| Neal Cotts L 2025 · 3.24 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.24 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 2.3% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 156 | 37 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 41 | 19.5% | 6.3% | 1.24 | 4.25 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Nick Vincent ('20) | 6 | 45 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 1.13 | 3.71 |