Nick Wittgren

P St. Paul Saints

Age 36 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	31	MLBSTL	29	0	29	5.90	3.41	12.7%	7.5%	0.4
2023	32	MIX2 levels	56	0	64	4.34	4.02	17.1%	9.1%	0.4	K 15.6% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.06
2024	33	MIX2 levels	40	3	60	5.58	5.33	19.8%	5.3%	—	K 18.1% · BB 4.7% · FIP 5.74
2025	34	No MLB games played
2026	35	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	36	MLBMIN	6	0	6	4.52	4.55	21.4%	8.5%	0.0
2028PROJMLE	37	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.78	4.95	20.3%	9.2%	—
2029PROJMLE	38	MLBMIN	—	—	0	5.14	5.38	19.1%	9.9%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

xwOBA vs34

FB Velo15

K%10

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Juan Sandoval (age 36) · Rafael Martín (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.52

FIP4.55

K%21.4%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1592.0

Whiff%

p1015.4%

p1014.1%

xwOBA vs

p340.330

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	64	256	67	8	6	0%	1.2	22.4%	3.3%	19.1%	2.7%	2.95	3.11	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	64	256	67	8	6	0%	1.2	26.2%	3.1%	23.0%	2.3%	2.95	2.60	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	64	259	53	12	7	0%	1.1	19.7%	3.8%	16.0%	3.0%	2.80	3.54	+0.8
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	64	259	53	12	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	4.6%	15.8%	2.7%	2.80	3.43	+0.9
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	47	201	49	12	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	6.6%	17.0%	2.9%	4.18	3.53	+0.6
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	47	201	49	12	5	0%	1.1	24.4%	6.0%	18.4%	2.5%	4.18	3.16	+0.8
2018	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	59	0	64	288	66	19	7	0%	1.1	21.8%	6.9%	14.8%	2.0%	4.20	3.25	+1.0
2018	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	59	0	64	288	66	19	7	0%	1.1	22.9%	6.6%	16.3%	2.4%	4.20	3.35	+0.9
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	60	244	64	16	10	0%	1.1	26.0%	6.1%	19.9%	4.3%	2.85	4.06	+0.4
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	60	244	64	16	10	0%	1.1	26.2%	6.6%	19.7%	4.1%	2.85	3.93	+0.4
2020	29	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	25	0	24	98	28	4	4	0%	0.9	28.6%	4.1%	24.5%	4.1%	3.42	3.45	+0.3
2020	29	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	25	0	24	98	28	4	4	0%	0.9	28.6%	4.1%	24.5%	4.1%	3.42	3.44	+0.3
2021	30	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	60	1	62	258	61	12	13	2%	1.0	23.6%	4.7%	19.0%	5.1%	5.05	4.47	+0.1
2021	30	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	60	1	62	258	61	12	13	2%	1.0	23.6%	4.7%	19.0%	5.0%	5.05	4.43	+0.1
2022	31	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	29	0	29	134	17	10	1	0%	1.0	12.7%	7.5%	5.2%	0.8%	5.90	3.41	+0.4
2022	31	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	29	0	29	134	17	10	1	0%	1.0	12.7%	7.5%	5.2%	0.7%	5.90	3.41	+0.4
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	64	275	47	25	6	0%	1.1	15.6%	8.6%	7.0%	2.2%	4.34	4.06	+0.4
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	64	275	47	25	6	0%	1.1	17.1%	9.1%	8.0%	2.2%	4.34	4.02	+0.4
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	3	60	262	52	14	15	8%	1.5	18.1%	4.7%	13.4%	6.5%	5.58	5.74	—
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	3	60	262	52	14	15	8%	1.5	18.1%	4.7%	13.4%	6.5%	5.58	5.74	—
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	3	60	262	52	14	15	8%	1.5	19.8%	5.3%	14.5%	5.7%	5.58	5.33	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			314	1	329	1392	300	83	42	0%	1.0	21.6%	6.0%	15.6%	3.0%	4.04	3.69	+3.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	MIN	6	0	6	25	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.4%	8.5%	12.8%	3.3%	4.52	4.55	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	MIN	38	0	40	170	35	16	6	0%	1.1	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	3.7%	4.78	4.95	-0.2
2029	38	MLB MLE	MIN	27	0	29	121	23	12	5	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.9%	9.2%	4.1%	5.14	5.38	-0.3
2028	37	MLB CTX	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.3%	9.2%	11.1%	3.7%	4.78	4.95	—
2029	38	MLB CTX	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.1%	9.9%	9.2%	4.1%	5.14	5.38	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		314	1	330	1394	300	83	42	0%	1.1	21.6%	6.0%	15.6%	3.0%	4.05	3.69	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	1	200	845	182	50	25	0%	1.0	21.6%	6.0%	15.6%	3.0%	4.05	3.69	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		480	4	539	2275	478	128	78	1%	1.1	21.0%	5.6%	15.4%	3.4%	4.06	3.92	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	1	200	844	178	48	29	1%	1.1	21.0%	5.6%	15.4%	3.4%	4.06	3.92	+1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 52 IPFIP 5.36 → 5.74 (+0.38)K% 21.1% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.05%	—	×0.860	18.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.26%	—	×0.900	4.74%
HR / BF /BF	6.14%	÷1.039	×1.100	6.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 5.36 → 5.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAWichita Wind Surge · 8 IPFIP 4.47 → 5.41 (+0.94)K% 11.8% → 9.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.76%	—	×0.810	9.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.100	6.47%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷0.845	×1.200	4.18%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 69).

Result: FIP 4.47 → 5.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAATacoma Rainiers · 35 IPFIP 4.13 → 4.17 (+0.04)K% 19.7% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.73%	—	×0.860	16.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×0.900	8.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.72%	÷1.157	×1.100	2.59%

Result: FIP 4.13 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANew Orleans Baby Cakes · 29 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.81 (+0.55)K% 25.8% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.76%	—	×0.880	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.30%	—	×1.050	5.57%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.952	×1.100	3.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 90).

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 13 IPFIP 3.38 → 3.91 (+0.53)K% 23.9% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.91%	—	×0.880	21.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.70%	—	×1.050	9.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.919	×1.100	2.60%

Result: FIP 3.38 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 62 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.11 (+0.45)K% 25.5% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.50%	—	×0.880	22.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.19%	—	×1.050	3.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.39%	÷0.975	×1.100	2.70%

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Wittgren (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	21.4%	8.5%	3.3%	—	5.13	19.8%	10.3%	69	+0.58	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	77
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	75
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	71
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	70
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	66
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	65
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	65
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	64
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	64
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	63
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	63
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	62
Jay Jackson R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	36	SU	5.31	25.4%	7.9%	6.1%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	261	62
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	60
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	60
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	58
Daniel Bard R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	36	SU	3.62	26.3%	11.5%	2.3%	.337	3.64	24.6%	10.3%	110	+0.02	2.56	456	57
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	55
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	53
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.79	26.2%	17.5%	36	+0.06	2.87	249	53

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	42	21.3%	7.6%	1.23	4.24
Joel Peralta ('16)	3.2	54	23.0%	7.0%	1.32	4.03
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Bob Patterson ('85-'98, 4 WAR*)	3.1	51	23.0%*	6.7%*	1.32*	4.33*
Dan Wheeler ('12)	3.2	58	20.7%	7.2%	1.25	3.98
Tony Fossas ('88-'99, 2 WAR*)	2.1	42	21.9%*	9.3%*	0.99*	3.88*
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*