Daniel Bard P Tacoma Rainiers
Age 41 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 49 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA4.52
FIP4.57
K%24.4%
BB%12.4%
K-BB%12.0%
ROS IP49
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 49 IP
K: +0.5 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+1KBB: -1.7 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-2BBCONTACT: -0.9 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-1CONTACTSTAM: +2.0 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+2STAMTotal WAR: -0.01 (49 IP)-0.0WAR
0.0-0.22627
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
STUF5555
CTRL2525
CMD4545
K†6060
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5194.6
Whiff%
p2421.7%
K%
p3720.3%
xwOBA vs
p100.372
FB+0.6
SL-6.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201631A+Palm Beach Cardinals8032811300%0.43.6%46.4%-42.9%0.0%24.008.68
201631A+Palm Beach Cardinals8032811300%0.43.6%46.4%-42.9%0.0%24.0015.43
201732MIX2 levels11095772400%0.812.3%42.1%-29.8%0.0%13.507.40
201732MIX2 levels11095772400%0.812.3%42.1%-29.8%0.0%13.509.31
202035MLBColorado Rockies2302510627820%1.125.5%7.5%17.9%1.4%3.652.70+0.5
202035MLBColorado Rockies2302510627820%1.125.5%7.5%17.9%1.9%3.652.94+0.5
202136MLBColorado Rockies67066304803580%1.026.3%11.5%14.8%2.0%5.213.44+0.9
202136MLBColorado Rockies67066304803580%1.026.3%11.5%14.8%2.6%5.213.85+0.6
202237MLBColorado Rockies57060245692430%1.128.2%9.8%18.4%0.9%1.792.48+1.5
202237MLBColorado Rockies57060245692430%1.128.2%9.8%18.4%1.2%1.792.65+1.3
202338MIX2 levels51050236504650%1.020.3%19.8%0.4%1.7%4.474.81-0.2
202338MIX2 levels51050236504650%1.021.2%19.5%1.7%2.1%4.475.15-0.4
202540MIX2 levels7172991014%1.031.0%3.4%27.6%0.0%5.400.92
202540MIX2 levels7172991014%1.031.0%3.4%27.6%0.0%5.400.85
▸ 2026 Season
202641MLBSEA47049209512660%1.124.4%12.4%12.0%2.9%4.524.57-0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202742MLBSEA40042179422360%1.123.2%13.1%10.1%3.3%4.815.00-0.2
202742MLBSEA023.2%13.1%10.1%3.3%4.815.00
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career1970200887223113180%1.025.1%12.7%12.4%2.0%3.823.70+4.0
/ 200 IP1970200887223113180%1.025.1%12.7%12.4%2.0%3.823.70+4.0
Career22412201005241152140%1.024.0%15.1%8.9%1.4%4.543.75+4.3
/ 200 IP2041200914219138130%1.024.0%15.1%8.9%1.4%4.543.75+3.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Daniel Bard (OGILVIE) 4.57 24.4%12.4%2.9% 5.00 23.2%10.1%42 +0.43
Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 3.82 FIP 41 SU 3.82 24.6%10.9%2.6%.311 4.07 23.3%10.4%48 +0.25 2.67 295 80
Joaquín Benoit R 2025 · 4.35 FIP 40 SU 4.35 21.6%9.9%3.3%.259 3.72 164 79
Rafael Diaz R 2029 · 3.91 FIP 44 SW 3.91 17.3%10.5%1.7%.301 3.13 16.2%9.4%152 -0.78 3.09 215 65
Jason Grilli R 2025 · 5.63 FIP 40 SU 5.63 26.1%9.8%6.4%.321 1.98 133 62
Luis Ayala R 2024 · 3.94 FIP 39 SU 3.94 15.9%11.7%1.3%.340 2.99 119 58
Jose Valverde R 2026 · 5.20 FIP 41 SU 5.20 14.9%6.1%4.7%.309 2.19 122 57
Ryan Vogelsong R 2024 · 4.67 FIP 39 SP- 4.67 16.7%10.4%3.0%.270 4.46 217 26
Juan Antonio Pena L 2026 · 4.46 FIP 41 SW 4.46 13.7%14.1%1.3%.313 4.15 149 19
Horacio Ramirez L 2024 · 4.62 FIP 39 SU 4.62 5.7%6.0%2.2%.233 3.28 199 19

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION24623.8%12.7%1.194.65
Fernando Rodney ('19)55924.6%11.8%0.884.21
Keegan Thompson ('24)45723.0%11.3%1.193.64
José Ruiz ('24)55222.2%10.4%1.414.41
José Cisnero ('23)54224.8%11.3%0.943.84
Lucas Sims ('24)64727.6%11.6%1.244.22
Amir Garrett ('23)65125.8%13.4%1.505.10