Emmanuel Chapman
P
Altoona Curve
Age 27
RHP
6'6" / 255 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 115
ERA5.07
FIP5.07
K%18.2%
BB%14.2%
K-BB%3.9%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 7 | 81 | 324 | 80 | 31 | 6 | 19% | 2.2 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 3.44 | 4.19 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 7 | 81 | 324 | 80 | 31 | 6 | 19% | 2.2 | 24.7% | 9.6% | 15.1% | 1.9% | 3.44 | 3.24 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Altoona Curve | 32 | 5 | 73 | 320 | 72 | 41 | 2 | 16% | 2.3 | 18.2% | 14.1% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 3.72 | 3.87 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Altoona Curve | 32 | 5 | 73 | 320 | 72 | 41 | 2 | 16% | 2.3 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 0.6% | 3.72 | 3.17 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Altoona Curve | 26 | 2 | 38 | 182 | 42 | 33 | 4 | 8% | 1.5 | 18.7% | 19.9% | -1.3% | 2.6% | 5.45 | 5.50 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PIT | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 54 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 14.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 5.07 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | PIT | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 14.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 5.07 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 108 | 478 | 96 | 75 | 11 | — | — | 20.0% | 15.7% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 5.20 | 5.22 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 18.2% | 14.2% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 5.07 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 53 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 13.9% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 5.04 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 51 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.7% | 13.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 5.08 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 48 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 13.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 5.19 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 20 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 13.9% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 5.04 | 5.08 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 28 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 13.8% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 5.08 | 5.15 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 32 | 24 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 13.8% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 5.19 | 5.29 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 99 | 0 | 104 | 441 | 82 | 61 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 13.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.11 | 4.81 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 157 | 117 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 13.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.11 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 94 | 14 | 192 | 826 | 156 | 116 | 16 | 15% | 2.0 | 18.9% | 14.0% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 3.94 | 4.35 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 98 | 15 | 200 | 862 | 163 | 121 | 17 | 15% | 2.0 | 18.9% | 14.0% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 3.94 | 4.35 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Emmanuel Chapman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.07 | 18.2% | 14.2% | 2.4% | — | 5.17 | 18.6% | 4.8% | 194 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 92 |
| Josh Zeid R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 90 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 85 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 85 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 84 |
| Julian Arballo R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.47 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.38 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -1.09 | 4.28 | 214 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 83 |
| Dustin Antolin R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.36 | 16.2% | 14.4% | 1.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 159 | 82 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.07 | 15.8% | 14.3% | 0.9% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 162 | 82 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.83 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.33 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.50 | 3.11 | 313 | 82 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 81 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 103 | 81 |
| Brad Schreiber R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.10 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 1.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 171 | 81 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.37 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 3.5% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 140 | 81 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.28 | 16.9% | 14.8% | 1.3% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 123 | 80 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2024 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 80 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 80 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.92 | 3.16 | 155 | 80 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.74 | 14.5% | 12.8% | 2.3% | .333 | 4.50 | 13.9% | 4.6% | 122 | -0.24 | 3.92 | 256 | 80 |
| Erik Davis R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.96 | 17.9% | 13.5% | 1.2% | .363 | 3.59 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 181 | -0.37 | 3.07 | 227 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 18.5% | 13.9% | 1.03 | 5.09 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |