Chris Jefferson

P Everett AquaSox

Age 30 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	25	MIX2 levels	28	0	48	4.15	2.30	30.1%	9.7%	—	K 22.4% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.53
2023	26	MIX3 levels	38	0	57	6.04	3.36	22.2%	10.2%	—	K 16.6% · BB 11.8% · FIP 4.45
2024	27	MIX2 levels	39	2	50	5.40	5.34	21.1%	13.4%	—	K 16.4% · BB 13.6% · FIP 5.65
2025	28	No MLB games played
2026	29	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	30	MLBSEA	—	—	0	4.75	4.75	21.3%	11.1%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	31	MLBSEA	6	0	6	4.82	4.90	21.1%	11.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsJim Miller (age 30) · Wirfin Obispo (age 30) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%21.3%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	24	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	6	0	12	47	17	3	1	0%	1.9	36.2%	6.4%	29.8%	2.1%	1.54	2.02	—
2021	24	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	6	0	12	47	17	3	1	0%	1.9	36.2%	6.4%	29.8%	2.1%	1.54	2.07	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	48	206	62	20	2	0%	1.7	22.4%	10.2%	12.2%	1.9%	4.15	3.53	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	48	206	62	20	2	0%	1.7	30.1%	9.7%	20.4%	1.0%	4.15	2.30	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	57	266	59	27	4	0%	1.5	16.6%	11.8%	4.7%	2.3%	6.04	4.45	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	57	266	59	27	4	0%	1.5	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	1.5%	6.04	3.36	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	50	232	49	31	9	5%	1.3	16.4%	13.6%	2.8%	4.0%	5.40	5.65	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	50	232	49	31	9	5%	1.3	16.4%	13.6%	2.8%	4.0%	5.40	5.65	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	2	50	232	49	31	9	5%	1.3	21.1%	13.4%	7.8%	3.9%	5.40	5.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	30	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	11.1%	10.2%	3.0%	4.75	4.75	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SEA	20	0	21	87	18	10	3	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.3%	4.82	4.90	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	SEA	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.3%	4.82	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.3%	4.82	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.2%	9.9%	3.3%	4.82	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		111	2	166	751	145	87	20	2%	1.5	19.3%	11.6%	7.7%	2.7%	4.99	4.42	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	2	200	905	175	105	24	2%	1.5	19.3%	11.6%	7.7%	2.7%	4.99	4.42	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 A+Everett AquaSox · 46 IPFIP 4.88 → 5.65 (+0.77)K% 21.3% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.33%	—	×0.770	16.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.85%	—	×1.150	13.63%
HR / BF /BF	3.79%	÷1.175	×1.250	4.03%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 135).

Result: FIP 4.88 → 5.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 4 IPFIP 7.72 → 7.49 (−0.23)K% 19.0% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.860	16.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	28.57%	—	×0.900	25.71%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.142	×1.100	4.59%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 7.72 → 7.49, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AModesto Nuts · 55 IPFIP 3.33 → 4.45 (+1.12)K% 22.4% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.39%	—	×0.740	16.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.04%	—	×1.180	11.85%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷0.883	×1.300	2.27%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 3.33 → 4.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AModesto Nuts · 39 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.53 (+1.21)K% 30.2% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.25%	—	×0.740	22.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.64%	—	×1.180	10.20%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷0.855	×1.300	1.88%

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 9 IPFIP 2.33 → 2.72 (+0.39)K% 29.5% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.55%	—	×0.880	26.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.64%	—	×1.050	14.32%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.144	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 129).

Result: FIP 2.33 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Mariners · 12 IPFIP 2.02 → 3.84 (+1.82)K% 36.2% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.17%	—	×0.680	24.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.38%	—	×1.250	7.98%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷0.904	×1.400	3.29%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 81).

Result: FIP 2.02 → 3.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Jefferson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	21.3%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.90	21.1%	9.9%	21	+0.15	—	—	—
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	89
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	89
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	88
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	85
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	83
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	81
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	81
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Scott Atchison R 2007 · 4.55 FIP	31	SU	4.55	19.1%	7.6%	3.8%	.297	4.59	16.2%	9.5%	60	+0.04	2.52	340	78
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	76
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	75
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	75
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2015 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	18.6%	7.6%	4.9%	.373	3.56	18.5%	9.3%	93	-1.65	3.50	170	75
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	74
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	74
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	74
Adrian Garza R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	16.0%	7.0%	3.4%	.351	5.18	9.7%	4.1%	113	+0.71	3.94	229	73
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	73
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	73
Jeremy Fikac R 2004 · 4.91 FIP	29	SU	4.91	19.6%	8.0%	4.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	136	73