Chris Jefferson — OGILVIE

Chris Jefferson P Everett AquaSox

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%19.1%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	24	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	6	0	12	47	17	3	1	0%	1.9	36.2%	6.4%	29.8%	2.1%	1.54	2.02	—
2021	24	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	6	0	12	47	17	3	1	0%	1.9	36.2%	6.4%	29.8%	2.1%	1.54	2.07	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	48	206	62	20	2	0%	1.7	22.4%	10.2%	12.2%	1.9%	4.15	3.53	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	48	206	62	20	2	0%	1.7	30.1%	9.7%	20.4%	1.0%	4.15	2.30	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	57	266	59	27	4	0%	1.5	16.6%	11.8%	4.7%	2.3%	6.04	4.45	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	57	266	59	27	4	0%	1.5	16.6%	11.8%	4.7%	2.3%	6.04	4.45	—
2023	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	57	266	59	27	4	0%	1.5	22.2%	10.2%	12.0%	1.5%	6.04	3.36	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	50	232	49	31	9	5%	1.3	16.4%	13.6%	2.8%	4.0%	5.40	5.65	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	50	232	49	31	9	5%	1.3	16.4%	13.6%	2.8%	4.0%	5.40	5.65	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	2	50	232	49	31	9	5%	1.3	21.1%	13.4%	7.8%	3.9%	5.40	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	SEA	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.1%	12.2%	6.9%	3.1%	5.09	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SEA	25	0	26	111	21	14	4	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.3%	5.12	5.19	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	SEA	8	0	8	34	6	4	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.3%	5.12	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	8	34	6	4	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.3%	5.12	4.81	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	100	25	0%	1.1	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	3.3%	5.12	4.81	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		111	2	166	751	145	87	20	2%	1.5	19.3%	11.6%	7.7%	2.7%	4.99	4.42	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	2	200	905	175	105	24	2%	1.5	19.3%	11.6%	7.7%	2.7%	4.99	4.42	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Jefferson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	19.1%	12.2%	3.1%	—	5.19	19.2%	7.0%	26	+0.10	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	93
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	86
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	85
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	84
Gregory Infante R 2016 · 4.47 FIP	29	SU	4.47	19.0%	12.3%	2.6%	.333	3.43	22.5%	15.8%	120	-1.04	2.97	230	83
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	81
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	80
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	79
Ronald Peña R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	29	SU	4.49	16.5%	10.4%	2.7%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	187	79
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	79
Pedro Beato R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	29	SU	4.20	19.2%	8.5%	3.0%	.275	3.72	18.5%	11.1%	152	-0.48	3.47	295	79
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	78
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	78
Roman Mendez R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SU	4.42	20.8%	11.1%	3.0%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	230	77
Jose De La Torre R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	29	SU	4.40	14.5%	13.1%	1.6%	.256	2.98	21.6%	14.2%	65	-1.42	2.64	130	77
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	77
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	77
Dan Winkler R 2019 · 4.99 FIP	29	SU	4.99	20.6%	15.2%	3.1%	.237	4.44	23.0%	8.4%	104	-0.55	2.40	231	77
Drew Hayes R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	28	SU	3.99	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	117	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	19.1%	12.2%	1.22	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84