Tyler Davis

P Chicago White Sox

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX4 levels	26	1	42	3.46	4.44	26.3%	13.4%	—	K 21.0% · BB 18.8% · FIP 6.02
2025	26	AACWS	41	0	54	3.17	2.47	28.2%	11.9%	—	K 22.8% · BB 13.1% · FIP 3.20
2026	27	MIX2 levels	54	1	57	4.74	4.17	22.7%	10.9%	0.3	K 21.1% · BB 10.4% · FIP 4.33
2027PROJ	28	MLBCWS	25	0	26	4.31	4.57	22.9%	11.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ80% MLB	29	MLBCWS	23	0	24	4.53	4.70	22.4%	11.8%	-0.0
2029PROJ85% MLB	30	MLBCWS	18	0	19	4.73	4.88	21.8%	11.9%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs77

FB Velo75

K%43

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJoe Colón J (age 27) · Spencer Bivens (age 28) · Joe Nelson (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.31

FIP4.57

K%22.9%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p770.286

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	1	42	179	47	24	6	4%	1.6	21.0%	18.8%	2.2%	4.2%	3.46	6.02	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	1	42	179	47	24	6	4%	1.6	21.0%	18.8%	2.2%	4.2%	3.46	6.02	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	1	42	179	47	24	6	4%	1.6	26.3%	13.4%	12.8%	3.4%	3.46	4.44	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	41	0	54	227	64	27	1	0%	1.3	22.8%	13.1%	9.8%	0.7%	3.17	3.20	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	41	0	54	227	64	27	1	0%	1.3	22.8%	13.1%	9.8%	0.7%	3.17	3.20	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	41	0	54	227	64	27	1	0%	1.3	28.2%	11.9%	16.3%	0.4%	3.17	2.47	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	1	57	238	54	26	7	2%	1.1	21.1%	10.4%	10.7%	3.1%	4.74	4.33	+0.1
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	1	57	238	54	26	7	2%	1.1	21.1%	10.4%	10.7%	3.1%	4.74	4.33	+0.1
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	1	57	238	54	26	7	2%	1.1	22.7%	10.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.74	4.17	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			31	0	32	128	27	14	3	0%	1.0	21.1%	10.9%	10.2%	2.3%	3.66	3.94	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	CWS	25	0	26	110	25	13	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.8%	11.1%	2.8%	4.31	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CWS	28	0	30	125	28	15	4	0%	1.1	22.4%	11.8%	10.6%	3.0%	4.53	4.70	-0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	CWS	21	0	22	95	21	11	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	3.2%	4.73	4.88	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	CWS	23	0	24	101	23	12	3	0%	1.0	22.4%	11.8%	10.6%	3.0%	4.53	4.70	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	CWS	18	0	19	80	17	10	3	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.9%	9.9%	3.2%	4.73	4.88	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	0	75	308	67	35	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.5%	10.2%	2.8%	4.21	4.23	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	825	180	94	21	0%	1.0	21.7%	11.5%	10.2%	2.8%	4.21	4.23	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		121	2	153	644	140	88	16	2%	1.3	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	2.5%	3.83	4.40	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		159	3	200	844	183	115	21	2%	1.3	21.7%	13.7%	8.0%	2.5%	3.83	4.40	+0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 25 IPFIP 4.41 → 4.76 (+0.35)K% 24.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.55%	—	×0.860	21.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.91%	—	×0.900	9.82%
HR / BF /BF	3.64%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.41 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABirmingham Barons · 54 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.20 (+0.73)K% 28.2% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.19%	—	×0.810	22.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.89%	—	×1.100	13.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.44%	÷0.784	×1.200	0.67%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 57).

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 26 IPFIP 4.18 → 6.02 (+1.84)K% 28.3% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.32%	—	×0.740	20.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.93%	—	×1.180	18.80%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷0.820	×1.300	4.21%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 64).

Result: FIP 4.18 → 6.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 10 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.67 (+1.36)K% 25.0% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.770	19.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.50%	—	×1.150	8.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷0.817	×1.250	3.83%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 63).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 5 IPFIP 8.53 → 9.01 (+0.48)K% 19.0% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.05%	—	×0.860	16.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	9.52%	÷1.016	×1.100	10.31%

Result: FIP 8.53 → 9.01, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	22.9%	11.8%	2.8%	—	4.78	22.1%	10.3%	52	+0.21	—	—	—
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	83
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	83
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	82
Josh Lueke R 2013 · 4.09 FIP	28	SU	4.09	25.3%	11.1%	3.1%	.333	3.28	24.6%	20.9%	90	-0.81	2.29	191	82
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	81
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	81
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	22.7%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.02	25.4%	17.1%	87	-0.43	2.32	186	81
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	80
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	80
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	80
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	80
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	80
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	80
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	80
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	30	22.1%	12.0%	1.08	4.27
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*