Tyler Davis — OGILVIE

Tyler Davis P Chicago White Sox

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs MLB ILBereavement List (BRV)

2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%22.7%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p3523.1%

p4321.1%

xwOBA vs

p760.287

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	1	42	179	47	24	6	4%	1.6	21.0%	18.8%	2.2%	4.2%	3.46	6.02	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	1	42	179	47	24	6	4%	1.6	21.0%	18.8%	2.2%	4.2%	3.46	6.02	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	1	42	179	47	24	6	4%	1.6	26.3%	13.4%	12.8%	3.4%	3.46	4.44	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	41	0	54	227	64	27	1	0%	1.3	22.8%	13.1%	9.8%	0.7%	3.17	3.20	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	41	0	54	227	64	27	1	0%	1.3	22.8%	13.1%	9.8%	0.7%	3.17	3.20	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	41	0	54	227	64	27	1	0%	1.3	28.2%	11.9%	16.3%	0.4%	3.17	2.47	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			29	0	31	123	26	14	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.4%	9.8%	1.6%	3.52	3.62	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	51	1	54	227	52	26	6	2%	1.1	21.0%	10.9%	10.0%	2.8%	4.86	4.25	+0.2
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	51	1	54	227	52	26	6	2%	1.1	21.0%	10.9%	10.0%	2.8%	4.86	4.25	+0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	CWS	22	1	23	104	26	12	4	5%	1.0	25.0%	11.5%	13.5%	3.8%	6.65	4.56	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	CWS	29	0	31	123	26	14	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.4%	9.8%	1.6%	3.52	3.65	+0.3
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	CWS	29	0	31	123	26	14	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	11.4%	9.8%	1.6%	3.52	3.65	+0.3
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CWS	6	0	6	27	6	4	1	0%	1.1	22.7%	13.2%	9.5%	2.5%	4.25	4.25	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	CWS	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	13.2%	9.5%	2.5%	4.25	4.25	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	60	254	58	30	7	—	—	22.9%	11.6%	11.2%	2.6%	4.80	4.25	+0.2
FULL	27	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	37	156	58	30	7	—	—	37.2%	18.9%	18.3%	4.3%	7.78	4.70	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CWS	65	0	68	287	66	38	7	0%	1.0	23.0%	13.1%	9.9%	2.5%	4.54	4.58	-0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	CWS	62	0	65	274	62	36	7	0%	1.0	22.8%	13.0%	9.7%	2.7%	4.62	4.69	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	CWS	62	0	65	274	63	36	7	0%	1.0	23.0%	13.1%	9.9%	2.5%	4.54	4.58	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	CWS	59	0	62	262	60	34	7	0%	1.1	22.8%	13.0%	9.7%	2.7%	4.62	4.69	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		155	0	163	682	154	87	17	0%	1.1	22.5%	12.8%	9.8%	2.4%	4.37	4.14	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	836	189	107	21	0%	1.1	22.5%	12.8%	9.8%	2.4%	4.37	4.14	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		118	2	149	633	137	88	15	2%	1.3	21.6%	13.9%	7.7%	2.4%	3.86	4.37	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		158	3	200	848	183	118	21	2%	1.3	21.6%	13.9%	7.7%	2.4%	3.86	4.37	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Davis (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	23.8%	14.1%	2.5%	—	4.63	22.9%	9.8%	133	+0.00	—	—	—
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	84
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	83
Jeff Johnson R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	27	SU	3.69	23.6%	15.6%	1.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	160	83
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	83
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	82
Al Alburquerque R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	29	SU	3.54	21.4%	11.1%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.31	2.84	228	82
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	82
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	82
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	82
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	82
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	81
Pierce Johnson R 2018 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	22.4%	11.3%	2.3%	.269	3.00	32.2%	22.0%	79	-0.92	2.75	593	81
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.86	21.0%	9.6%	69	+0.93	3.84	181	81
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	5.9%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	81
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	81
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	23.2%	13.4%	1.00	4.60
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22