Tyler Davis
P
Charlotte Knights
+0.3
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.9%
IP45
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL4040
CMD5050
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 26 | 1 | 42 | 179 | 47 | 24 | 6 | 21.0% | 18.8% | 4.4% | 3.46 | 6.12 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 41 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 64 | 27 | 1 | 22.8% | 13.1% | 0.7% | 3.17 | 3.21 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 5 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CWS | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 45 | 22 | 5 | 23.7% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 50 | 212 | 49 | 25 | 5 | 22.9% | 11.8% | 2.2% | 4.61 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CWS | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 44 | 21 | 5 | 23.6% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 42 | 21 | 5 | 23.5% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 23.3% | 11.4% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 39 | 19 | 5 | 23.0% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 37 | 19 | 5 | 22.8% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 35 | 18 | 5 | 22.4% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 33 | 18 | 5 | 22.1% | 12.0% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 30 | 17 | 4 | 21.7% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | CWS | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 5.00 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 1 | 101 | 430 | 93 | 66 | 9 | 21.7% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 3.48 | 4.43 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 143 | 2 | 200 | 851 | 184 | 131 | 18 | 21.7% | 15.4% | 2.2% | 3.48 | 4.43 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Davis (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.7% | 11.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.42 | 23.4% | 12.0% | 128 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 88 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 85 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.99 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +1.06 | 3.83 | 181 | 85 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 85 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 84 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 83 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.47 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | -0.13 | 3.16 | 254 | 82 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 82 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 82 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.26 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.97 | 2.80 | 155 | 82 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 82 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 82 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 82 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.2% | .252 | 4.15 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 307 | 82 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.41 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.19 | 224 | 81 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.37 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .237 | 2.63 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.74 | 2.40 | 362 | 81 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2028 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 81 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 81 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.41 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .360 | 5.38 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.97 | 3.46 | 173 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.