Daniel Robert

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	AAATEX	28	2	43	4.40	3.24	26.4%	11.9%	—	K 22.7% · BB 10.7% · FIP 3.45
2024	29	MIX2 levels	39	0	49	2.76	2.71	29.9%	7.7%	1.1	K 26.6% · BB 7.0% · FIP 2.90
2025	30	MIX2 levels	43	0	43	3.12	2.96	26.7%	9.9%	0.8	K 24.1% · BB 9.5% · FIP 3.14
2026	31	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	32	MLBPHI	2	0	2	4.17	4.14	24.4%	9.5%	0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBPHI	7	0	7	4.34	4.44	23.4%	10.0%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo74

K%67

xwOBA vs43

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Mike Broadway (age 31) · Arcenio Leon (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.17

FIP4.14

K%24.4%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%14.8%

Proj IP24

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7496.2

Whiff%

p8530.8%

p6725.4%

xwOBA vs

p430.320

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	24	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	4	0	9	34	13	3	1	0%	2.2	38.2%	8.8%	29.4%	2.9%	3.12	2.60	—
2019	24	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	4	0	9	34	13	3	1	0%	2.2	38.2%	8.8%	29.4%	2.9%	3.12	2.64	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	23	90	42	5	3	0%	1.4	37.5%	4.9%	32.6%	3.2%	2.78	2.32	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	0	23	90	42	5	3	0%	1.4	46.7%	5.6%	41.1%	3.3%	2.78	1.78	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	37	0	39	174	48	27	3	0%	1.0	24.3%	16.3%	8.0%	2.0%	6.28	4.20	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	37	0	39	174	48	27	3	0%	1.0	27.6%	15.5%	12.1%	1.7%	6.28	3.72	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	28	2	43	193	51	23	3	7%	1.5	22.7%	10.7%	12.0%	1.7%	4.40	3.45	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Round Rock Express	28	2	43	193	51	23	3	7%	1.5	26.4%	11.9%	14.5%	1.6%	4.40	3.24	—
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	49	194	58	15	4	0%	1.3	26.6%	7.0%	19.7%	2.1%	2.76	2.90	+1.0
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	49	194	58	15	4	0%	1.3	26.6%	7.0%	19.7%	2.1%	2.76	2.90	+1.0
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	49	194	58	15	4	0%	1.3	29.9%	7.7%	22.2%	2.1%	2.76	2.71	+1.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	43	191	51	19	3	0%	1.0	24.1%	9.5%	14.6%	1.6%	3.12	3.14	+0.7
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	43	191	51	19	3	0%	1.0	24.1%	9.5%	14.6%	1.6%	3.12	3.14	+0.7
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	43	191	51	19	3	0%	1.0	26.7%	9.9%	16.8%	1.6%	3.12	2.96	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			19	0	19	85	21	12	3	0%	1.0	24.7%	14.1%	10.6%	3.5%	3.86	4.87	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	PHI	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.5%	14.8%	2.7%	4.17	4.14	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	PHI	19	0	20	84	20	8	3	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.0%	13.5%	3.0%	4.34	4.44	+0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	PHI	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	10.0%	13.5%	3.0%	4.34	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		26	0	26	116	28	15	4	0%	1.0	24.4%	13.0%	11.3%	3.4%	3.99	4.56	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		200	0	200	892	216	116	31	0%	1.0	24.4%	13.0%	11.3%	3.4%	3.99	4.56	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		167	2	205	876	230	88	18	1%	1.2	26.3%	10.1%	16.2%	2.0%	3.86	3.26	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	2	200	853	224	86	17	1%	1.2	26.3%	10.1%	16.2%	2.0%	3.86	3.26	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 30 IPFIP 2.08 → 2.38 (+0.30)K% 27.3% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.860	23.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.82%	—	×0.900	6.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷0.947	×1.100	0.88%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 2.08 → 2.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAARound Rock Express · 43 IPFIP 2.45 → 2.90 (+0.45)K% 31.0% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.95%	—	×0.860	26.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.74%	—	×0.900	6.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.928	×1.100	2.12%

Result: FIP 2.45 → 2.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARound Rock Express · 43 IPFIP 3.23 → 3.45 (+0.22)K% 26.4% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.42%	—	×0.860	22.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.92%	—	×0.900	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷1.035	×1.100	1.65%

Result: FIP 3.23 → 3.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARound Rock Express · 39 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.20 (+0.52)K% 27.6% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.59%	—	×0.880	24.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.52%	—	×1.050	16.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷0.957	×1.100	1.98%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 17 IPFIP 1.40 → 2.32 (+0.93)K% 46.3% → 37.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	46.27%	—	×0.810	37.48%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.48%	—	×1.100	4.93%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷1.114	×1.200	3.22%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 1.40 → 2.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AHickory Crawdads · 9 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.80 (+1.20)K% 38.2% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	38.24%	—	×0.740	28.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.180	10.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.183	×1.300	3.23%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.80, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Robert (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	24.4%	9.5%	2.7%	—	4.44	23.4%	13.5%	20	+0.30	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	81
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	80
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	80
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	77
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	77
Sergio Santos R 2015 · 4.17 FIP	32	SU	4.17	24.7%	8.2%	3.9%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	1.36	178	76
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	74
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	74
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	4.97	21.2%	10.4%	88	+1.93	2.79	239	74
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	72
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	72
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	72
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	72
Jeff Fulchino R 2011 · 4.44 FIP	31	SU	4.44	20.4%	11.1%	3.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	178	72
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	72
Grant Sides R 2019 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	21.7%	9.8%	1.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	159	71
Aaron Barrett R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	23.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.246	4.56	19.9%	6.4%	38	+0.75	1.86	160	71
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	70
Ryan Brasier R 2020 · 2.97 FIP	32	SU	2.97	27.3%	9.1%	1.9%	.324	3.30	23.4%	17.1%	134	+0.33	2.31	426	70
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	24.2%	11.1%	1.19	4.13
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Louis Coleman ('18)	1.4	46	23.4%	10.8%	1.17	3.51
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*