Dakota Hawkins

P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 208 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	30	11	93	4.47	3.76	20.8%	7.9%	—	K 16.3% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.31
2025	25	MIX3 levels	28	4	52	2.44	2.98	27.9%	7.2%	—	K 21.8% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.50
2026	26	MIX3 levels	27	11	62	4.82	4.66	22.1%	8.7%	—	K 17.5% · BB 8.8% · FIP 4.94
2027PROJ	27	MLBNYM	—	—	0	4.72	4.72	18.7%	8.5%	—
2028PROJ37% MLB	28	MLBNYM	19	0	20	4.73	4.76	19.1%	8.7%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	29	MLBNYM	25	0	26	4.80	4.86	19.2%	8.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control50Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsJorge Reyes (age 27) · Roberto Gómez (age 27) · Coleman Huntley III (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%18.7%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	8	29	8	2	0	0%	1.6	27.6%	6.9%	20.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.64	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	8	29	8	2	0	0%	1.6	27.6%	6.9%	20.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.85	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	11	93	390	81	31	10	37%	3.1	16.3%	8.9%	7.4%	2.7%	4.47	4.31	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	11	93	390	81	31	10	37%	3.1	16.3%	8.9%	7.4%	2.7%	4.47	4.31	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	11	93	390	81	31	10	37%	3.1	20.8%	7.9%	12.8%	2.6%	4.47	3.76	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	4	52	208	58	15	5	14%	1.8	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	2.0%	2.44	3.50	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	4	52	208	58	15	5	14%	1.8	21.8%	9.1%	12.7%	2.0%	2.44	3.50	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	4	52	208	58	15	5	14%	1.8	27.9%	7.2%	20.7%	2.4%	2.44	2.98	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	11	62	263	58	23	11	41%	2.3	17.5%	8.8%	8.7%	4.0%	4.82	4.94	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	11	62	263	58	23	11	41%	2.3	17.5%	8.8%	8.7%	4.0%	4.82	4.94	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	11	62	263	58	23	11	41%	2.3	22.1%	8.7%	13.3%	4.2%	4.82	4.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	8.5%	10.3%	3.2%	4.72	4.72	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYM	52	0	55	231	44	20	8	0%	1.1	19.1%	8.7%	10.4%	3.3%	4.73	4.76	-0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	NYM	44	0	47	197	38	18	7	0%	1.1	19.2%	8.9%	10.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.86	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYM	19	0	20	84	16	7	3	0%	1.1	19.1%	8.7%	10.4%	3.3%	4.73	4.76	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	NYM	25	0	26	110	21	10	4	0%	1.0	19.2%	8.9%	10.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		43	0	46	193	37	17	6	0%	1.1	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	3.3%	4.77	4.44	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	74	26	0%	1.1	19.1%	8.8%	10.3%	3.3%	4.77	4.44	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		90	26	214	890	163	79	25	29%	2.4	18.3%	8.8%	9.4%	2.8%	3.91	4.22	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	24	200	832	152	74	23	29%	2.4	18.3%	8.8%	9.4%	2.8%	3.91	4.22	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 39 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.90 (+0.80)K% 21.7% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.71%	—	×0.770	16.72%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.92%	—	×1.150	6.81%
HR / BF /BF	1.97%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.47%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 19 IPFIP 5.56 → 6.67 (+1.11)K% 23.1% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.810	18.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.99%	—	×1.100	12.09%
HR / BF /BF	5.49%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.59%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.56 → 6.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASyracuse Mets · 4 IPFIP 12.18 → 12.98 (+0.81)K% 20.0% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.860	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×0.900	18.00%
HR / BF /BF	15.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	16.50%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 12.18 → 12.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 44 IPFIP 2.65 → 3.50 (+0.85)K% 28.2% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.25%	—	×0.770	21.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.91%	—	×1.150	9.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷1.073	×1.250	1.97%

Result: FIP 2.65 → 3.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 6 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.14 (+0.22)K% 30.4% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.860	26.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.167	×1.100	4.10%

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 84 IPFIP 3.86 → 4.31 (+0.45)K% 21.2% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.20%	—	×0.770	16.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.74%	—	×1.150	8.90%
HR / BF /BF	2.87%	÷1.341	×1.250	2.67%

Result: FIP 3.86 → 4.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 9 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.29 (+0.40)K% 17.1% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.07%	—	×0.810	13.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.76%	—	×1.100	10.73%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.834	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASt. Lucie Mets · 6 IPFIP 0.29 → 1.02 (+0.73)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.274	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 155).

Result: FIP 0.29 → 1.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dakota Hawkins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	18.7%	8.5%	3.2%	—	4.81	19.1%	10.3%	101	+0.09	—	—	—
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	89
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	88
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	85
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	84
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	83
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	83
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	82
Donovan Hand R 2013 · 4.72 FIP	27	SW	4.72	12.9%	7.0%	3.3%	.279	4.30	11.1%	6.8%	97	-0.42	4.30	305	82
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	81
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	81
Jarret Whorff R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	25	SU	4.04	18.9%	10.2%	2.3%	.271	4.52	19.6%	12.0%	123	+0.48	3.88	257	80
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	79
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	79
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	79
Nick Morreale R 2024 · 3.96 FIP	27	SW	3.96	19.0%	8.5%	2.5%	.271	3.72	11.7%	-1.1%	14	-0.24	2.97	280	78
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	77
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	77
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	77
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	76
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	19.0%	8.7%	1.27	4.74
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*