Danny Kirwin
P
Greenville Drive
+0.3
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
A+
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%11.4%
IP67
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF4040
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A | Salem Red Sox | 20 | 5 | 69 | 285 | 69 | 24 | 5 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | 3.63 | 4.16 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 28 | 4 | 71 | 303 | 64 | 23 | 6 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 5.07 | 4.19 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 55 | 28 | 8 | 19.5% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.63 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 67 | 281 | 56 | 27 | 8 | 19.9% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 56 | 27 | 8 | 20.1% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.62 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 55 | 26 | 8 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 53 | 26 | 8 | 20.0% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.66 | 4.70 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 50 | 25 | 8 | 19.8% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.73 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 47 | 25 | 8 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 4.81 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 45 | 24 | 8 | 19.2% | 10.3% | 3.3% | 4.90 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 42 | 23 | 7 | 18.9% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 38 | 22 | 7 | 18.5% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 5.11 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 35 | 21 | 7 | 18.0% | 11.0% | 3.6% | 5.24 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 9 | 140 | 588 | 102 | 57 | 14 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 4.36 | 4.18 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 13 | 200 | 838 | 145 | 81 | 20 | 17.3% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 4.36 | 4.18 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Danny Kirwin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 19.5% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.63 | 20.1% | 10.3% | 196 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 92 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 92 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 90 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 90 |
| Carlos Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.79 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .266 | 4.46 | 14.3% | 2.3% | 36 | +0.67 | 3.75 | 154 | 90 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 89 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 89 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 88 |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 199 | 88 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 88 |
| Ryan Middendorf R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.93 | 19.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .293 | 4.50 | 12.8% | -1.5% | 34 | -0.43 | 1.27 | 164 | 88 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 88 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 88 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.95 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.9% | .320 | 4.89 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | -0.06 | 3.69 | 239 | 87 |
| Cole Johnson R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.51 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 1.5% | .311 | 3.64 | 14.0% | 9.2% | 49 | +0.13 | 3.51 | 101 | 87 |
| Tyler Myrick R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .307 | 5.33 | 13.0% | 4.1% | 59 | +1.59 | 3.36 | 204 | 87 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 86 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 17.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.53 | 17.1% | 4.9% | 50 | -0.78 | 3.42 | 219 | 86 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.44 | 18.3% | 10.0% | 2.9% | .304 | 3.25 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 51 | -1.19 | 3.01 | 214 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.32 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 159 | 86 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.