Danny Kirwin
P
Greenville Drive
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130120vR 111
ERA4.90
FIP4.90
K%16.4%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%6.5%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A | Salem Red Sox | 20 | 5 | 69 | 285 | 69 | 24 | 5 | 25% | 3.5 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 3.63 | 4.29 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Salem Red Sox | 20 | 5 | 69 | 285 | 69 | 24 | 5 | 25% | 3.5 | 24.2% | 8.4% | 15.8% | 1.8% | 3.63 | 3.09 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 4 | 71 | 303 | 64 | 23 | 6 | 14% | 2.5 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | 5.07 | 4.03 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 4 | 71 | 303 | 64 | 23 | 6 | 14% | 2.5 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 2.0% | 5.07 | 3.37 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 17 | 0 | 25 | 132 | 29 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.5 | 16.9% | 20.0% | -3.1% | 7.6% | 9.24 | 8.37 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BOS | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 48 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.4% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.4% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.90 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 95 | 428 | 77 | 52 | 16 | — | — | 18.1% | 12.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 6.05 | 5.82 | -0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.4% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 50 | 29 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 4.86 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 49 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 47 | 27 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 4.86 | 4.88 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 33 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 0 | 110 | 465 | 81 | 47 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.57 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 147 | 85 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.3% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 65 | 9 | 166 | 720 | 124 | 83 | 24 | 14% | 2.5 | 17.3% | 11.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 5.11 | 4.93 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 11 | 200 | 869 | 150 | 100 | 29 | 14% | 2.5 | 17.3% | 11.5% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 5.11 | 4.93 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Danny Kirwin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 16.4% | 9.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.94 | 17.3% | 7.3% | 200 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Stephen Kohlscheen R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.95 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.02 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 90 | +0.07 | 2.39 | 167 | 87 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.76 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 1.5% | .320 | 4.36 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 259 | +0.60 | 3.76 | 399 | 85 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2027 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 84 |
| Daniel Blair R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 17.0% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 171 | 83 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.67 | 14.1% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .248 | 4.51 | 14.4% | 5.2% | 85 | -0.16 | 3.79 | 291 | 83 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2025 · 5.44 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.44 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 141 | 83 |
| Layne Somsen R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.04 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 154 | 83 |
| Scott Burke R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.01 | 14.9% | 8.2% | 3.9% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 119 | 83 |
| Troy Neiman R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 199 | 83 |
| Junior Lopez R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.82 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 1.4% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 128 | 82 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 82 |
| Raul Fernandez R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.42 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.3% | .270 | 5.61 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 38 | +1.19 | 3.95 | 165 | 82 |
| Josh Zeid R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 82 |
| Michael Lorenzen R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.86 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 1.7% | .286 | 3.52 | 23.0% | 13.7% | 146 | -0.34 | 3.20 | 1,151 | 82 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 82 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.48 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.6% | .285 | 4.76 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.28 | 3.84 | 420 | 82 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 82 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.15 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .297 | 4.10 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | -0.05 | 3.33 | 556 | 81 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.13 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .246 | 4.87 | 20.9% | 10.7% | 116 | +0.74 | 4.12 | 230 | 81 |
| Spencer Stockton R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.19 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .276 | 5.42 | 19.0% | 5.8% | 63 | +1.23 | 1.93 | 233 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 17.1% | 10.0% | 1.14 | 4.90 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |