Fernando Cruz
P
New York Yankees
Age 36
RHP
6'2" / 237 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8374vR 65
ERA3.27
FIP3.05
K%33.8%
BB%11.5%
K-BB%22.2%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 40 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p9040.9%
K%
p9029.9%
xwOBA vs
p900.266
FB+1.2 (36%)
SL (13%)
SI (3%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 5 | 69 | 309 | 58 | 33 | 11 | 16% | 2.1 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.64 | 5.41 | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 5 | 69 | 309 | 58 | 33 | 11 | 16% | 2.1 | 18.8% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 5.64 | 4.93 | — |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 2 | 71 | 289 | 87 | 28 | 5 | 3% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 10.0% | 17.3% | 1.3% | 2.55 | 2.77 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 65 | 2 | 71 | 289 | 87 | 28 | 5 | 3% | 1.1 | 30.1% | 9.7% | 20.4% | 1.7% | 2.55 | 2.75 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 2 | 68 | 288 | 100 | 30 | 6 | 3% | 1.1 | 35.1% | 10.0% | 25.1% | 2.0% | 5.19 | 2.52 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 2 | 68 | 288 | 100 | 30 | 6 | 3% | 1.1 | 34.7% | 10.4% | 24.3% | 2.1% | 5.19 | 2.63 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 69 | 3 | 67 | 288 | 109 | 33 | 9 | 4% | 1.0 | 37.8% | 11.5% | 26.4% | 3.0% | 4.86 | 2.98 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 69 | 3 | 67 | 288 | 109 | 33 | 9 | 4% | 1.0 | 37.8% | 11.5% | 26.4% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 3.07 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 3 levels | 53 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 78 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.0% | 12.0% | 24.0% | 2.3% | 4.18 | 2.86 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 3 levels | 53 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 78 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.6% | 11.9% | 23.7% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 3.10 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | New York Yankees | 44 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 50 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.9% | 12.6% | 17.4% | 1.2% | 2.25 | 2.82 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | NYY | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 50 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.4% | 12.2% | 21.2% | 2.9% | 3.70 | 3.77 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | NYY | 29 | 0 | 30 | 128 | 41 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.3% | 12.9% | 19.4% | 3.3% | 4.00 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | NYY | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.1% | 13.6% | 17.5% | 3.8% | 4.38 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | NYY | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 45 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.4% | 12.2% | 21.2% | 2.9% | 3.70 | 3.77 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | NYY | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 31 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.3% | 12.9% | 19.4% | 3.3% | 4.00 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | NYY | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.1% | 13.6% | 17.5% | 3.8% | 4.38 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 302 | 7 | 307 | 1301 | 449 | 154 | 33 | 2% | 1.0 | 34.5% | 11.8% | 22.7% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 3.06 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 197 | 5 | 200 | 847 | 292 | 100 | 21 | 2% | 1.0 | 34.5% | 11.8% | 22.7% | 2.5% | 3.94 | 3.06 | +5.5 | ||
| Career | — | 323 | 12 | 365 | 1560 | 466 | 176 | 37 | 4% | 1.1 | 29.9% | 11.3% | 18.6% | 2.4% | 4.24 | 3.31 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 177 | 7 | 200 | 854 | 255 | 96 | 20 | 4% | 1.1 | 29.9% | 11.3% | 18.6% | 2.4% | 4.24 | 3.31 | +4.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Fernando Cruz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.32 | 37.0% | 11.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.16 | 32.4% | 19.6% | 92 | +0.84 | — | — | — |
| Kirby Yates R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.18 | 31.5% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .202 | 3.03 | 33.1% | 23.7% | 124 | -1.15 | 0.70 | 468 | 68 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.70 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .278 | 4.06 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.36 | 3.51 | 219 | 65 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2026 · 2.63 FIP | 36 | SU | 2.63 | 28.8% | 5.8% | 2.2% | .257 | 5.30 | 18.2% | 11.4% | 18 | +2.67 | 1.81 | 226 | 61 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 61 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 2.51 FIP | 36 | SU | 2.51 | 25.0% | 7.3% | 1.1% | .266 | 4.00 | 25.2% | 17.7% | 37 | +1.49 | 2.01 | 380 | 54 |
| John Axford R 2025 · 3.78 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.78 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 197 | 54 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 52 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.95 | 30.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% | .224 | 3.83 | 26.6% | 17.3% | 36 | -0.12 | 2.86 | 249 | 52 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.44 | 26.3% | 11.5% | 2.0% | .337 | 3.53 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 110 | +0.09 | 2.48 | 200 | 52 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.28 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 244 | 52 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.35 | 23.9% | 10.9% | 1.6% | .222 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 349 | 52 |
| Tony Barnette R 2024 · 2.63 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.63 | 25.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.63 | 144 | 50 |
| David Robertson R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.73 | 32.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .321 | 2.89 | 31.1% | 21.4% | 201 | -0.84 | 1.99 | 494 | 47 |
| Luis Ayala R 2027 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 46 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.86 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .295 | 5.60 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 27 | +1.74 | 2.61 | 339 | 46 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.96 | 22.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | .292 | 5.23 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 24 | +1.27 | 2.82 | 316 | 46 |
| Radhames Liz R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 46 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 2.30 FIP | 36 | SU | 2.30 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 0.0% | .333 | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.9% | 46 | +1.11 | 2.30 | 126 | 46 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.51 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .347 | 5.90 | 19.1% | 2.3% | 22 | +2.39 | 2.19 | 426 | 45 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 44 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 33 | 33.8% | 12.3% | 1.21 | 3.85 |
| Cody Allen ('19) | 5 | 59 | 31.3% | 10.2% | 1.19 | 3.51 |
| Corey Knebel ('22) | 6 | 47 | 32.3% | 11.2% | 0.95 | 3.04 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| José Leclerc ('24) | 6 | 57 | 31.6% | 12.8% | 0.76 | 3.33 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. ('23) | 5 | 50 | 28.7% | 12.4% | 0.76 | 3.05 |