Fernando Cruz
P
New York Yankees
+0.7
WAR
Age 36
RHP
6'2" / 237 lbs
MLB
Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA3.90
FIP3.47
xFIP5.38
SIERA4.71
K%33.8%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%22.8%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†7070
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p9046.5%
K%
p9036.0%
xwOBA vs
p750.288
FB+1.2 (33%)
SL (13%)
SI (3%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 32 | 5 | 69 | 309 | 58 | 33 | 11 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.6% | 5.64 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 65 | 2 | 71 | 289 | 87 | 28 | 5 | 27.4% | 10.0% | 1.6% | 2.55 | 2.94 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 60 | 2 | 68 | 288 | 100 | 30 | 6 | 35.1% | 10.0% | 1.9% | 5.19 | 2.44 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 69 | 3 | 67 | 288 | 109 | 33 | 9 | 37.8% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 4.86 | 2.85 | +1.6 |
| 2025 | 35 | MLB | New York Yankees | 53 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 78 | 26 | 6 | 36.0% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 4.18 | 2.85 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | New York Yankees | 10 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 10 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | KC | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 47 | 15 | 4 | 33.6% | 11.0% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.59 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 36 | MLB | KC | — | — | 40 | 172 | 57 | 22 | 4 | 33.0% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 3.60 | 2.94 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | KC | 37 | — | 37 | 158 | 51 | 19 | 4 | 32.3% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 3.85 | 3.81 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | KC | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 46 | 18 | 4 | 31.5% | 12.5% | 2.9% | 3.94 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 39 | MLB | KC | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 41 | 17 | 4 | 30.6% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.09 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 289 | 12 | 333 | 1426 | 426 | 162 | 34 | 29.9% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 3.32 | +7.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 174 | 7 | 200 | 857 | 256 | 97 | 20 | 29.9% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 3.32 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Fernando Cruz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.59 | 33.6% | 11.0% | 2.8% | — | 3.99 | 31.5% | 19.1% | 103 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Kirby Yates R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.10 | 31.5% | 14.2% | 3.4% | .202 | 2.89 | 33.2% | 23.6% | 103 | -1.21 | 0.67 | 447 | 68 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.73 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.99 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.26 | 3.50 | 219 | 67 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 65 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 61 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2026 · 2.92 FIP | 36 | SW | 2.92 | 28.8% | 5.8% | 2.8% | .257 | 5.68 | 18.2% | 11.4% | 18 | +2.76 | 1.80 | 226 | 60 |
| Charlie Morton R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.14 | 24.7% | 5.9% | 2.5% | .342 | 3.29 | 27.5% | 18.4% | 521 | +0.15 | 2.52 | 1,534 | 60 |
| John Axford R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.62 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 197 | 60 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.19 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.0% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 244 | 59 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 2.51 FIP | 36 | SU | 2.51 | 25.0% | 7.3% | 1.1% | .266 | 3.98 | 25.2% | 17.7% | 37 | +1.47 | 2.00 | 380 | 58 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 58 |
| Max Scherzer R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.40 | 31.2% | 7.5% | 3.6% | .351 | 2.77 | 31.1% | 25.5% | 477 | -0.63 | 1.94 | 1,739 | 56 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.57 | 26.3% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .337 | 3.61 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 110 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 200 | 55 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.64 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.19 | 404 | 55 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.78 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 5.73 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 27 | +1.95 | 2.41 | 339 | 55 |
| Radhames Liz R 2024 · 4.49 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.49 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 110 | 55 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 54 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 54 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 2.30 FIP | 36 | SU | 2.30 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 0.0% | .333 | 3.47 | 11.5% | 5.9% | 46 | +1.17 | 2.30 | 126 | 53 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 53 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.58 | 30.3% | 6.6% | 4.0% | .224 | 3.83 | 26.6% | 17.3% | 36 | +0.25 | 2.88 | 249 | 53 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-1
MLB Debut 2022
Service 3.203 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2028
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $1M | +0.6 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $6M | +$1.0M | ||