Corey Knebel
P
Salt Lake Bees
Age 34
RHP
6'3" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 94
ERA4.39
FIP4.41
K%24.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6595.6
Whiff%
p6527.6%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p570.305
FB+4.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 66 | 274 | 80 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 8.1% | 20.1% | 3.6% | 3.56 | 3.70 | +0.7 |
| 2015 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 64 | 0 | 66 | 274 | 80 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 8.0% | 21.2% | 3.3% | 3.56 | 3.45 | +0.9 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 3 | 49 | 203 | 58 | 17 | 3 | 6% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 9.0% | 17.2% | 2.2% | 3.47 | 3.21 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 48 | 3 | 49 | 203 | 58 | 17 | 3 | 6% | 1.0 | 28.6% | 8.4% | 20.2% | 1.5% | 3.47 | 2.57 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 76 | 0 | 76 | 309 | 126 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 40.8% | 11.3% | 29.4% | 2.0% | 1.78 | 2.20 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 76 | 0 | 76 | 309 | 126 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 40.8% | 11.3% | 29.4% | 1.9% | 1.78 | 2.19 | +2.4 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 61 | 0 | 59 | 238 | 93 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 39.5% | 9.9% | 29.6% | 3.3% | 3.36 | 2.81 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 61 | 0 | 59 | 238 | 93 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 39.1% | 10.1% | 29.0% | 2.9% | 3.36 | 2.71 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 15 | 0 | 13 | 62 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.2% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 6.7% | 6.07 | 6.38 | -0.3 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 15 | 0 | 13 | 62 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.2% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 6.5% | 6.07 | 6.55 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 5 | 31 | 124 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 15% | 0.9 | 29.7% | 7.9% | 21.8% | 2.1% | 2.30 | 2.75 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 5 | 31 | 124 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 15% | 0.9 | 33.1% | 7.3% | 25.8% | 1.6% | 2.30 | 2.17 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 46 | 0 | 45 | 194 | 41 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 2.0% | 3.43 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 30 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 46 | 0 | 45 | 194 | 41 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 3.43 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 1 | 15 | 83 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 6% | 0.9 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 11.74 | 5.74 | — |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 1 | 15 | 83 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 6% | 0.9 | 21.7% | 14.5% | 7.2% | 3.6% | 11.74 | 5.64 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 54 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 45 | 0 | 47 | 200 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 39 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.91 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | LAA | 35 | 0 | 37 | 155 | 33 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 5.28 | 5.52 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.61 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.1% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.91 | 5.12 | — |
| 2029 | 37 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.1% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 5.28 | 5.52 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 306 | 4 | 301 | 1254 | 399 | 128 | 34 | 1% | 1.0 | 31.8% | 10.2% | 21.6% | 2.7% | 3.18 | 3.22 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 204 | 3 | 200 | 834 | 265 | 85 | 23 | 1% | 1.0 | 31.8% | 10.2% | 21.6% | 2.7% | 3.18 | 3.22 | +5.1 | ||
| Career | — | 361 | 9 | 355 | 1487 | 462 | 153 | 43 | 2% | 1.0 | 31.1% | 10.3% | 20.8% | 2.9% | 3.45 | 3.37 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 204 | 5 | 200 | 839 | 260 | 86 | 24 | 2% | 1.0 | 31.1% | 10.3% | 20.8% | 2.9% | 3.45 | 3.37 | +4.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Corey Knebel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 24.1% | 10.0% | 3.1% | — | 5.10 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 126 | +0.69 | — | — | — |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.32 | 22.5% | 7.3% | 2.2% | .242 | 3.84 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 65 | +0.52 | 3.32 | 132 | 76 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.93 | 27.5% | 10.7% | 3.3% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 277 | 75 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 75 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 74 |
| Jared Hughes R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.05 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .224 | 4.39 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 22 | -0.66 | 3.02 | 358 | 73 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.83 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.59 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.83 | 208 | 73 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.89 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 4.58 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.69 | 2.51 | 251 | 72 |
| Junior Guerra R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.29 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .212 | 4.15 | 20.0% | 5.9% | 89 | -0.14 | 3.02 | 646 | 71 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 71 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.74 | 25.5% | 8.6% | 4.9% | .258 | 4.22 | 24.9% | 15.4% | 87 | -0.52 | 2.61 | 339 | 71 |
| Jake Petricka R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.31 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 1.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 252 | 70 |
| Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.35 | 26.4% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .312 | 3.60 | 27.4% | 16.8% | 55 | +0.25 | 2.82 | 363 | 70 |
| Bud Norris R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.52 | 27.3% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 316 | 69 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 69 |
| Justin Miller R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 27.1% | 5.9% | 4.0% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.54 | 279 | 69 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.22 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .323 | 5.60 | 23.0% | 12.2% | 16 | +1.38 | 2.28 | 279 | 68 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.41 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.36 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 144 | 68 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 68 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 68 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.22 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.92 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.30 | 3.92 | 186 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 45 | 22.8% | 10.8% | 1.39 | 4.75 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |