Corey Knebel — OGILVIE

Corey Knebel P Salt Lake Bees

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.36

FIP4.38

K%24.0%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6595.6

Whiff%

p6527.6%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p570.305

FB+4.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	66	274	80	22	9	0%	1.0	28.2%	8.1%	20.1%	3.2%	3.56	3.52	+0.8
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	66	274	80	22	9	0%	1.0	29.2%	8.0%	21.2%	3.3%	3.56	3.45	+0.9
2016	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	3	49	203	58	17	3	6%	1.0	26.2%	9.0%	17.2%	2.0%	3.47	3.10	+0.9
2016	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	3	49	203	58	17	3	6%	1.0	28.6%	8.4%	20.2%	1.5%	3.47	2.57	+1.2
2017	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	76	0	76	309	126	35	6	0%	1.0	40.8%	11.3%	29.4%	1.8%	1.78	2.11	+2.2
2017	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	76	0	76	309	126	35	6	0%	1.0	40.8%	11.3%	29.4%	1.9%	1.78	2.19	+2.2
2018	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	61	0	59	238	93	24	7	0%	1.0	39.5%	9.9%	29.6%	3.0%	3.36	2.66	+1.3
2018	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	61	0	59	238	93	24	7	0%	1.0	39.1%	10.1%	29.0%	2.9%	3.36	2.71	+1.3
2020	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	15	0	13	62	15	8	4	0%	0.9	24.2%	12.9%	11.3%	6.1%	6.07	6.06	-0.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	15	0	13	62	15	8	4	0%	0.9	24.2%	12.9%	11.3%	6.5%	6.07	6.55	-0.3
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	5	31	124	41	9	2	15%	0.9	29.7%	7.9%	21.8%	1.9%	2.30	2.64	+0.7
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	5	31	124	41	9	2	15%	0.9	33.1%	7.3%	25.8%	1.6%	2.30	2.17	+0.9
2022	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	46	0	45	194	41	25	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.9%	8.2%	1.9%	3.43	4.00	+0.3
2022	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	46	0	45	194	41	25	4	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.9%	8.2%	2.1%	3.43	4.11	+0.2
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	1	15	83	18	12	3	6%	0.9	21.1%	11.5%	9.7%	4.5%	11.74	5.24	—
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	1	15	83	18	12	3	6%	0.9	21.1%	11.5%	9.7%	4.5%	11.74	5.24	—
2024	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	1	15	83	18	12	3	6%	0.9	21.7%	14.5%	7.2%	3.6%	11.74	5.64	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			304	4	298	1243	396	127	34	1%	1.0	31.9%	10.2%	21.6%	2.7%	3.17	3.20	+4.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	LAA	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	24.0%	9.8%	14.2%	3.1%	4.36	4.38	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	LAA	45	0	47	200	46	21	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	3.4%	4.57	4.71	-0.1
2028	36	MLB MLE	LAA	40	0	42	177	39	19	7	0%	1.0	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	3.8%	4.88	5.08	-0.3
2027	35	MLB CTX	LAA	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.3%	12.7%	3.4%	4.57	4.71	-0.0
2028	36	MLB CTX	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	3.8%	4.88	5.08	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		306	4	301	1254	399	128	34	1%	1.0	31.8%	10.2%	21.6%	2.7%	3.18	3.22	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		204	3	200	834	265	85	23	1%	1.0	31.8%	10.2%	21.6%	2.7%	3.18	3.22	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		361	9	355	1487	461	151	39	2%	1.0	31.0%	10.2%	20.8%	2.6%	3.45	3.22	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		204	5	200	839	260	85	22	2%	1.0	31.0%	10.2%	20.8%	2.6%	3.45	3.22	+2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Corey Knebel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	24.0%	9.8%	3.1%	—	4.88	22.5%	11.9%	89	+0.50	—	—	—
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	77
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	74
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	74
Dustin McGowan R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	22.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.230	4.58	19.4%	12.7%	78	+0.76	3.82	208	73
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	71
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.58	22.0%	11.7%	191	+0.06	3.08	366	70
Zach McAllister R 2022 · 3.41 FIP	34	SU	3.41	26.4%	9.5%	2.5%	.312	3.57	25.8%	16.7%	55	+0.16	2.82	363	70
Jake Petricka R 2022 · 3.21 FIP	34	SU	3.21	18.3%	7.9%	1.2%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	252	70
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	69
Jim Johnson R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	34	SU	3.89	23.8%	8.6%	3.1%	.309	4.48	16.8%	9.0%	63	+0.59	2.56	251	69
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	69
Pedro Strop R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	34	SU	4.05	27.5%	10.7%	3.5%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	277	69
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	68
Justin Miller R 2021 · 3.87 FIP	34	SU	3.87	27.1%	5.9%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	279	68
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	68
Ramon E Ramirez R 2016 · 3.60 FIP	34	SU	3.60	18.4%	6.0%	2.4%	.262	3.49	14.0%	8.2%	40	-0.11	2.37	140	67
Blake Parker R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	34	SU	4.65	25.5%	8.6%	4.8%	.258	4.26	24.9%	15.4%	87	-0.39	2.52	339	67
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	67
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	4.12	186	67
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	23.1%	10.3%	1.31	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64