Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 87 | 344 | 117 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.6% | 6.9% | 22.8% | 0.5% | 1.75 | 1.75 | +3.5 |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 87 | 344 | 117 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.5 | 34.0% | 6.4% | 27.6% | 0.6% | 1.75 | 1.47 | +3.7 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 66 | 0 | 75 | 313 | 96 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.7% | 10.9% | 19.8% | 1.8% | 3.13 | 2.86 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 66 | 0 | 75 | 313 | 96 | 34 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 30.7% | 10.9% | 19.8% | 1.9% | 3.13 | 2.94 | +1.7 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 69 | 0 | 79 | 315 | 88 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 7.6% | 20.3% | 3.0% | 2.75 | 3.33 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 69 | 0 | 79 | 315 | 88 | 24 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 7.6% | 20.3% | 3.2% | 2.75 | 3.43 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 69 | 0 | 77 | 317 | 79 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 16.7% | 1.2% | 3.99 | 2.68 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 69 | 0 | 77 | 317 | 79 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 8.2% | 16.7% | 1.3% | 3.99 | 2.73 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 58 | 0 | 63 | 260 | 86 | 25 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.1% | 9.6% | 23.5% | 4.7% | 4.57 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 58 | 0 | 63 | 260 | 86 | 25 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.1% | 9.6% | 23.5% | 5.0% | 4.57 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 22 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 25 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 10.8% | 16.1% | 4.1% | 3.63 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 22 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 25 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 10.8% | 16.1% | 5.4% | 3.63 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 1 | 53 | 226 | 56 | 23 | 8 | 2% | 0.9 | 25.0% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 3.57 | 4.02 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 1 | 53 | 226 | 56 | 23 | 8 | 2% | 0.9 | 24.8% | 10.2% | 14.6% | 3.5% | 3.57 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 2 | 62 | 263 | 73 | 21 | 8 | 3% | 1.0 | 27.3% | 8.1% | 19.2% | 3.1% | 3.32 | 3.51 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 2 | 62 | 263 | 73 | 21 | 8 | 3% | 1.0 | 27.8% | 8.0% | 19.8% | 3.0% | 3.32 | 3.44 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 1 | 19 | 90 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 5% | 0.9 | 17.8% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 7.58 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 1 | 19 | 90 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 5% | 0.9 | 17.8% | 14.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 7.58 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 34 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 9 | 0 | 11 | 54 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.2% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 4.8% | 7.94 | 5.17 | — |
| 2024 | 34 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 9 | 0 | 11 | 54 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 14.8% | 3.7% | 7.94 | 4.42 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 48 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 50 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | MIA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 42 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | MIA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 41 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 467 | 1 | 506 | 2100 | 581 | 193 | 61 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 9.2% | 18.5% | 2.9% | 3.57 | 3.51 | +11.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 185 | 0 | 200 | 830 | 230 | 76 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 9.2% | 18.5% | 2.9% | 3.57 | 3.51 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 488 | 4 | 548 | 2275 | 632 | 206 | 56 | 1% | 1.1 | 27.8% | 9.1% | 18.7% | 2.5% | 3.48 | 3.25 | +13.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 1 | 200 | 830 | 230 | 75 | 20 | 1% | 1.1 | 27.8% | 9.1% | 18.7% | 2.5% | 3.48 | 3.25 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Mychal Givens (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.81 | 22.1% | 12.2% | 44 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 86 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 81 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 80 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.70 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .278 | 4.06 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.36 | 3.51 | 219 | 79 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 78 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 78 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 78 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.28 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 244 | 77 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 77 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 76 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 75 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 74 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 73 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.96 | 22.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | .292 | 5.23 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 24 | +1.27 | 2.82 | 316 | 72 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.44 | 26.3% | 11.5% | 2.0% | .337 | 3.53 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 110 | +0.09 | 2.48 | 200 | 71 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 71 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 70 |
| Rafael Martín R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.60 | 22.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 227 | 69 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.63 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 140 | 67 |
| Jason Motte R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.16 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 113 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 48 | 22.7% | 9.6% | 1.28 | 4.48 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |