Mychal Givens

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 37 RHP 6'0" / 250 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	32	MIX2 levels	60	2	62	3.32	3.44	27.8%	8.0%	0.8	K 27.3% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.51
2023	33	MIX4 levels	21	1	19	7.58	4.84	17.8%	14.4%	-0.1	K 17.8% · BB 14.4% · FIP 4.65
2024	34	AAAMIA	9	0	11	7.94	4.42	24.1%	9.3%	—	K 20.7% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.82
2025	35	No MLB games played
2026	36	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	37	MLBMIA	5	0	5	4.28	4.35	23.4%	9.2%	0.0
2028PROJ	38	MLBMIA	31	0	33	4.58	4.78	22.2%	9.9%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

K%78

xwOBA vs62

FB Velo34

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Juan Sandoval (age 36) · Matt Bush (age 37)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109101vR 93

ERA4.28

FIP4.35

K%23.4%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%14.2%

Proj IP50

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p6427.5%

p7827.3%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	87	344	117	22	2	0%	1.5	29.6%	6.9%	22.8%	0.6%	1.75	1.77	+3.0
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	87	344	117	22	2	0%	1.5	34.0%	6.4%	27.6%	0.6%	1.75	1.47	+3.3
2016	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	66	0	75	313	96	34	6	0%	1.1	30.7%	10.9%	19.8%	1.7%	3.13	2.84	+1.5
2016	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	66	0	75	313	96	34	6	0%	1.1	30.7%	10.9%	19.8%	1.9%	3.13	2.94	+1.4
2017	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	69	0	79	315	88	24	10	0%	1.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	2.9%	2.75	3.28	+1.2
2017	27	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	69	0	79	315	88	24	10	0%	1.1	27.9%	7.6%	20.3%	3.2%	2.75	3.43	+1.0
2018	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	69	0	77	317	79	26	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.2%	16.7%	1.1%	3.99	2.66	+1.7
2018	28	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	69	0	77	317	79	26	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.2%	16.7%	1.3%	3.99	2.73	+1.7
2019	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	58	0	63	260	86	25	13	0%	1.1	33.1%	9.6%	23.5%	4.5%	4.57	4.00	+0.4
2019	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	58	0	63	260	86	25	13	0%	1.1	33.1%	9.6%	23.5%	5.0%	4.57	4.24	+0.2
2020	30	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	22	0	22	93	25	10	5	0%	1.0	26.9%	10.8%	16.1%	4.8%	3.63	4.81	-0.1
2020	30	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	22	0	22	93	25	10	5	0%	1.0	26.9%	10.8%	16.1%	5.4%	3.63	5.11	-0.1
2021	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	1	53	226	56	23	8	2%	0.9	25.0%	10.6%	14.4%	3.0%	3.57	3.98	+0.4
2021	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	1	53	226	56	23	8	2%	0.9	24.8%	10.2%	14.6%	3.5%	3.57	4.25	+0.2
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	2	62	263	73	21	8	3%	1.0	27.3%	8.1%	19.2%	3.1%	3.32	3.51	+0.8
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	2	62	263	73	21	8	3%	1.0	27.8%	8.0%	19.8%	3.0%	3.32	3.44	+0.8
2023	33	MIX MLE	4 levels	21	1	19	90	16	13	2	5%	0.9	17.8%	14.4%	3.3%	2.2%	7.58	4.65	-0.0
2023	33	MIX RAW	4 levels	21	1	19	90	16	13	2	5%	0.9	17.8%	14.4%	3.3%	2.2%	7.58	4.84	-0.1
2024	34	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	9	0	11	54	13	5	2	0%	1.3	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	4.4%	7.94	4.82	—
2024	34	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	9	0	11	54	13	5	2	0%	1.3	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	4.4%	7.94	4.82	—
2024	34	AAA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	9	0	11	54	13	5	2	0%	1.3	24.1%	9.3%	14.8%	3.7%	7.94	4.42	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			425	1	462	1913	539	174	54	0%	1.1	28.2%	9.1%	19.1%	2.8%	3.47	3.42	+6.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	37	MLB	MIA	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	9.2%	14.2%	3.1%	4.28	4.35	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	38	MLB MLE	MIA	32	0	33	140	31	14	5	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.9%	12.4%	3.5%	4.58	4.78	-0.1
2028	38	MLB CTX	MIA	31	0	33	139	31	14	5	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.9%	12.4%	3.5%	4.58	4.78	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		457	1	495	2053	570	188	59	0%	1.1	27.8%	9.1%	18.6%	2.9%	3.54	3.49	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		185	0	200	830	230	76	24	0%	1.1	27.8%	9.1%	18.6%	2.9%	3.54	3.49	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		488	4	548	2275	631	205	55	1%	1.1	27.8%	9.0%	18.7%	2.4%	3.48	3.24	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		178	1	200	830	230	75	20	1%	1.1	27.8%	9.0%	18.7%	2.4%	3.48	3.24	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 11 IPFIP 4.27 → 4.82 (+0.55)K% 24.1% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.07%	—	×0.860	20.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.26%	—	×0.900	8.33%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷0.925	×1.100	4.40%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 4.27 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 9 IPFIP 5.77 → 6.16 (+0.39)K% 18.4% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.42%	—	×0.860	15.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×0.900	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	5.26%	÷0.995	×1.100	5.82%

Result: FIP 5.77 → 6.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 5 IPFIP 3.44 → 3.96 (+0.52)K% 20.0% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.810	16.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.00%	—	×1.100	17.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.208	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 142).

Result: FIP 3.44 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AABowie Baysox · 57 IPFIP 1.30 → 1.94 (+0.65)K% 34.8% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.80%	—	×0.810	28.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.05%	—	×1.100	7.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.44%	÷1.197	×1.200	0.44%

Result: FIP 1.30 → 1.94, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mychal Givens (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	23.4%	9.2%	3.1%	—	4.78	22.2%	12.4%	33	+0.43	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	76
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	75
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	37	SU	3.79	26.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	73
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	69
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	66
Pete Walker R 2006 · 4.45 FIP	37	SU	4.45	19.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	327	64
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	64
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	63
Scott Atchison R 2013 · 3.80 FIP	37	SU	3.80	14.4%	6.2%	2.1%	.273	3.60	16.7%	12.9%	92	-0.20	2.52	340	62
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	60
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	58
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	51
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	51
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	46
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	38
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	35
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	35
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	32
Brian Shouse L 2006 · 4.19 FIP	37	SU	4.19	13.2%	7.5%	2.3%	.269	3.37	15.3%	11.0%	127	-0.82	2.32	339	31

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	54	27.3%	9.9%	1.12	3.61
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Héctor Neris ('25)	3.1	57	29.4%	9.2%	1.19	3.47
Jose Valverde ('14)	3.2	57	26.2%	10.0%	0.96	3.27
Will Smith ('24)	3.3	59	27.4%	8.7%	1.16	3.85
Rob Murphy ('85-'95, 6 WAR*)	3.1	69	25.2%*	9.2%*	1.07*	3.94*
Al Hrabosky ('70-'82, 10 WAR*)	3.6	72	26.7%*	10.1%*	0.98*	3.50*