Héctor Neris — OGILVIE

Héctor Neris P Houston Astros

Age 37 RHP 6'2" / 227 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.24

FIP4.59

K%25.8%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%14.9%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p7128.6%

p8228.2%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

SL+0.6 (3%)

SI (7%)

CH-1.2 (5%)

FB-7.4 (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	78	343	76	33	9	0%	1.3	20.9%	10.0%	11.0%	2.6%	3.71	4.00	+0.5
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	78	343	76	33	9	0%	1.3	22.2%	9.6%	12.5%	2.6%	3.71	3.92	+0.6
2016	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	79	0	80	328	102	27	9	0%	1.0	31.1%	8.2%	22.9%	2.6%	2.58	2.92	+1.6
2016	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	79	0	80	328	102	27	9	0%	1.0	31.1%	8.2%	22.9%	2.7%	2.58	3.03	+1.5
2017	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	74	0	75	320	86	23	9	0%	1.0	26.9%	7.2%	19.7%	2.6%	3.01	3.18	+1.2
2017	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	74	0	75	320	86	23	9	0%	1.0	26.9%	7.2%	19.7%	2.8%	3.01	3.29	+1.1
2018	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	66	277	107	22	11	0%	0.9	37.3%	8.1%	29.2%	3.7%	4.07	3.01	+1.2
2018	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	72	0	66	277	107	22	11	0%	0.9	38.6%	7.9%	30.7%	4.0%	4.07	3.02	+1.2
2019	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	68	0	68	275	89	23	10	0%	1.0	32.4%	8.4%	24.0%	3.4%	2.93	3.29	+1.0
2019	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	68	0	68	275	89	23	10	0%	1.0	32.4%	8.4%	24.0%	3.6%	2.93	3.41	+0.9
2020	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	24	0	22	103	27	11	0	0%	0.9	26.2%	10.7%	15.5%	0.0%	4.57	2.24	+0.6
2020	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	24	0	22	103	27	11	0	0%	0.9	26.2%	10.7%	15.5%	0.0%	4.57	2.13	+0.6
2021	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	74	0	74	310	98	29	12	0%	1.0	31.6%	9.4%	22.3%	3.6%	3.63	3.60	+0.8
2021	32	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	74	0	74	310	98	29	12	0%	1.0	31.6%	9.4%	22.3%	3.9%	3.63	3.73	+0.7
2022	33	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	70	0	65	263	79	17	3	0%	0.9	30.0%	6.5%	23.6%	1.2%	3.72	2.03	+2.0
2022	33	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	70	0	65	263	79	17	3	0%	0.9	30.0%	6.5%	23.6%	1.1%	3.72	2.06	+2.0
2023	34	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	71	0	68	273	77	31	7	0%	1.0	28.2%	11.4%	16.8%	2.6%	1.71	3.60	+0.8
2023	34	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	71	0	68	273	77	31	7	0%	1.0	28.2%	11.4%	16.8%	2.6%	1.71	3.60	+0.8
2023	34	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	71	0	68	273	77	31	7	0%	1.0	28.2%	11.4%	16.8%	2.6%	1.71	3.54	+0.8
2024	35	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	62	0	59	260	64	26	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.0%	14.6%	3.2%	4.10	4.02	+0.4
2024	35	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	62	0	59	260	64	26	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.0%	14.6%	3.2%	4.10	4.02	+0.4
2024	35	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	62	0	59	260	64	26	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.0%	14.6%	3.1%	4.10	4.01	+0.4
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	31	140	43	16	7	0%	0.8	28.2%	12.1%	16.1%	5.0%	6.46	4.98	-0.2
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	31	140	43	16	7	0%	0.8	28.2%	12.1%	16.1%	5.0%	6.46	4.98	-0.2
2025	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	31	140	43	16	7	0%	0.8	30.7%	11.4%	19.3%	5.0%	6.46	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			642	0	626	2629	774	227	83	0%	1.0	29.4%	8.6%	20.8%	3.2%	3.48	3.44	+8.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	HOU	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	25.8%	10.9%	14.9%	3.5%	4.24	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	HOU	36	0	38	160	39	19	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	11.6%	13.0%	3.9%	4.71	5.02	-0.2
2027	38	MLB CTX	HOU	36	0	38	160	40	19	6	0%	1.1	24.6%	11.6%	13.0%	3.9%	4.71	5.02	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		678	0	664	2789	813	246	89	0%	1.0	29.2%	8.8%	20.4%	3.2%	3.55	3.51	+8.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		204	0	200	840	245	74	27	0%	1.0	29.2%	8.8%	20.4%	3.2%	3.55	3.51	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		692	0	686	2892	837	260	82	0%	1.0	28.9%	9.0%	19.9%	2.8%	3.44	3.35	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		202	0	200	843	244	76	24	0%	1.0	28.9%	9.0%	19.9%	2.8%	3.44	3.35	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Héctor Neris (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	25.8%	10.9%	3.5%	—	5.02	24.6%	13.0%	38	+0.43	—	—	—
Santiago Casilla R 2017 · 4.13 FIP	37	SU	4.13	22.0%	8.1%	3.4%	.289	4.14	16.8%	1.6%	44	+0.01	3.50	219	80
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	73
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	73
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	71
Matt Belisle R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	37	SU	3.62	21.9%	6.5%	2.8%	.241	4.60	15.4%	9.2%	34	+0.98	2.51	174	71
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	68
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	67
Matt Bush R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	37	SU	3.83	25.8%	8.7%	3.3%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	67
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	63
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	61
Jason Motte R 2017 · 5.16 FIP	35	SU	5.16	16.3%	11.4%	3.6%	.193	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	113	61
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	61
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	60
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	59
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	58
Seunghwan Oh R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	37	SU	5.75	18.2%	6.8%	6.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	1.87	226	58
Peter Moylan R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	37	SU	3.59	17.7%	7.9%	1.8%	.263	4.00	18.5%	8.6%	88	+0.41	3.11	174	58
Sergio Romo R 2020 · 3.77 FIP	37	SU	3.77	26.4%	8.0%	3.4%	.241	4.87	22.0%	14.9%	80	+1.10	1.71	371	57
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	55
Ramon E Ramirez R 2017 · 3.49 FIP	35	SU	3.49	14.0%	5.8%	1.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	140	54

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	41	25.3%	11.2%	1.42	4.46
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64