Héctor Neris

P Houston Astros

Age 38 RHP 6'2" / 227 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	34	MLBHOU	71	0	68	1.71	3.54	28.2%	11.4%	0.8
2024	35	MLBHOU	62	0	59	4.10	4.01	24.6%	10.0%	0.4
2025	36	MIX2 levels	39	0	31	6.46	4.83	30.7%	11.4%	-0.1	K 28.2% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.98
2026	37	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	38	MLBHOU	52	0	55	4.44	4.57	25.5%	11.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ	39	MLBHOU	34	0	36	4.78	5.00	24.4%	11.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ	40	MLBHOU	24	0	25	5.17	5.43	23.2%	12.5%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

K%82

xwOBA vs34

FB Velo21

CompsBilly Taylor (age 38) · Juan Sandoval (age 38) · Zack Segovia (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.44

FIP4.57

K%25.5%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%14.4%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p7128.6%

p8228.2%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2014	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	+0.1
2014	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	+0.0
2015	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	78	343	76	33	9	0%	1.3	20.9%	10.0%	11.0%	2.6%	3.71	4.00	+0.5
2015	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	78	343	76	33	9	0%	1.3	22.2%	9.6%	12.5%	2.6%	3.71	3.92	+0.6
2016	27	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	79	0	80	328	102	27	9	0%	1.0	31.1%	8.2%	22.9%	2.6%	2.58	2.92	+1.6
2016	27	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	79	0	80	328	102	27	9	0%	1.0	31.1%	8.2%	22.9%	2.7%	2.58	3.03	+1.5
2017	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	74	0	75	320	86	23	9	0%	1.0	26.9%	7.2%	19.7%	2.6%	3.01	3.18	+1.2
2017	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	74	0	75	320	86	23	9	0%	1.0	26.9%	7.2%	19.7%	2.8%	3.01	3.29	+1.1
2018	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	72	0	66	277	107	22	11	0%	0.9	37.3%	8.1%	29.2%	3.7%	4.07	3.01	+1.2
2018	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	72	0	66	277	107	22	11	0%	0.9	38.6%	7.9%	30.7%	4.0%	4.07	3.02	+1.2
2019	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	68	0	68	275	89	23	10	0%	1.0	32.4%	8.4%	24.0%	3.4%	2.93	3.29	+1.0
2019	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	68	0	68	275	89	23	10	0%	1.0	32.4%	8.4%	24.0%	3.6%	2.93	3.41	+0.9
2020	31	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	24	0	22	103	27	11	0	0%	0.9	26.2%	10.7%	15.5%	0.0%	4.57	2.24	+0.6
2020	31	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	24	0	22	103	27	11	0	0%	0.9	26.2%	10.7%	15.5%	0.0%	4.57	2.13	+0.6
2021	32	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	74	0	74	310	98	29	12	0%	1.0	31.6%	9.4%	22.3%	3.6%	3.63	3.60	+0.8
2021	32	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	74	0	74	310	98	29	12	0%	1.0	31.6%	9.4%	22.3%	3.9%	3.63	3.73	+0.7
2022	33	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	70	0	65	263	79	17	3	0%	0.9	30.0%	6.5%	23.6%	1.2%	3.72	2.03	+2.0
2022	33	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	70	0	65	263	79	17	3	0%	0.9	30.0%	6.5%	23.6%	1.1%	3.72	2.06	+2.0
2023	34	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	71	0	68	273	77	31	7	0%	1.0	28.2%	11.4%	16.8%	2.6%	1.71	3.60	+0.8
2023	34	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	71	0	68	273	77	31	7	0%	1.0	28.2%	11.4%	16.8%	2.6%	1.71	3.54	+0.8
2024	35	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	62	0	59	260	64	26	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.0%	14.6%	3.2%	4.10	4.02	+0.4
2024	35	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	62	0	59	260	64	26	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.0%	14.6%	3.2%	4.10	4.02	+0.4
2024	35	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	62	0	59	260	64	26	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.0%	14.6%	3.1%	4.10	4.01	+0.4
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	31	140	43	16	7	0%	0.8	28.2%	12.1%	16.1%	5.0%	6.46	4.98	-0.2
2025	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	31	140	43	16	7	0%	0.8	28.2%	12.1%	16.1%	5.0%	6.46	4.98	-0.2
2025	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	31	140	43	16	7	0%	0.8	30.7%	11.4%	19.3%	5.0%	6.46	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			643	0	627	2632	775	227	83	0%	1.0	29.4%	8.6%	20.8%	3.2%	3.47	3.43	+8.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	38	MLB	HOU	52	0	55	232	59	26	8	0%	1.1	25.5%	11.1%	14.4%	3.3%	4.44	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	39	MLB MLE	HOU	34	0	36	150	37	18	6	0%	1.0	24.4%	11.8%	12.6%	3.8%	4.78	5.00	-0.2
2029	40	MLB MLE	HOU	24	0	25	106	25	13	5	0%	1.0	23.2%	12.5%	10.7%	4.2%	5.17	5.43	-0.2
2028	39	MLB CTX	HOU	34	0	36	152	37	18	6	0%	1.1	24.4%	11.8%	12.6%	3.8%	4.78	5.00	-0.2
2029	40	MLB CTX	HOU	24	0	25	106	25	13	4	0%	1.0	23.2%	12.5%	10.7%	4.2%	5.17	5.43	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		701	0	688	2888	836	258	93	0%	1.0	29.0%	8.9%	20.0%	3.2%	3.60	3.56	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		204	0	200	840	243	75	27	0%	1.0	29.0%	8.9%	20.0%	3.2%	3.60	3.56	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		693	0	687	2895	838	260	82	0%	1.0	28.9%	9.0%	19.9%	2.8%	3.43	3.35	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		202	0	200	842	244	76	24	0%	1.0	28.9%	9.0%	19.9%	2.8%	3.43	3.35	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 19 IPFIP 0.76 → 1.25 (+0.48)K% 41.9% → 36.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.89%	—	×0.880	36.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.46%	—	×1.050	9.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.954	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 0.76 → 1.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 37 IPFIP 3.39 → 3.78 (+0.39)K% 20.2% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.23%	—	×0.880	17.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.29%	—	×1.050	13.96%
HR / BF /BF	0.58%	÷0.845	×1.100	0.75%

Result: FIP 3.39 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Héctor Neris (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	5.18	23.9%	11.8%	61	+0.61	—	—	—
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	67
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	65
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	64
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	63
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	62
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	57
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	56
Seunghwan Oh R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	37	SU	5.75	18.2%	6.8%	6.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	1.87	226	55
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	49
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	47
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	42
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	41
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	36
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	29
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	26

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	53	28.7%	9.6%	1.25	3.66
Will Smith ('24)	3.3	59	27.4%	8.7%	1.16	3.85
Tyler Clippard ('22)	4.4	62	26.7%	9.6%	1.16	3.16
Paul Assenmacher ('86-'99, 12 WAR*)	4.3	61	27.8%*	8.3%*	0.98*	3.61*
Ugueth Urbina ('05)	3.5	70	27.9%	10.5%	1.11	3.45
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Dan Plesac ('86-'03, 16 WAR*)	5.4	60	28.6%*	8.5%*	1.02*	3.65*