Héctor Neris
P
Houston Astros
Age 37
RHP
6'2" / 227 lbs
MLB
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.18
FIP4.50
K%25.8%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%14.9%
ROS IP44
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p7128.6%
K%
p8228.2%
xwOBA vs
p340.331
SL+0.6 (3%)
SI (7%)
CH-1.2 (5%)
FB-7.4 (49%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 78 | 343 | 76 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 3.71 | 4.09 | +0.8 |
| 2015 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 78 | 343 | 76 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 3.92 | +0.9 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 79 | 0 | 80 | 328 | 102 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.1% | 8.2% | 22.9% | 2.7% | 2.58 | 2.97 | +1.9 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 79 | 0 | 80 | 328 | 102 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.1% | 8.2% | 22.9% | 2.7% | 2.58 | 3.03 | +1.8 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 74 | 0 | 75 | 320 | 86 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 7.2% | 19.7% | 2.7% | 3.01 | 3.23 | +1.4 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 74 | 0 | 75 | 320 | 86 | 23 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 7.2% | 19.7% | 2.8% | 3.01 | 3.29 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 72 | 0 | 66 | 277 | 107 | 22 | 11 | 0% | 0.9 | 37.3% | 8.1% | 29.2% | 3.8% | 4.07 | 3.08 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 72 | 0 | 66 | 277 | 107 | 22 | 11 | 0% | 0.9 | 38.6% | 7.9% | 30.7% | 4.0% | 4.07 | 3.02 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 68 | 0 | 68 | 275 | 89 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.4% | 8.4% | 24.0% | 3.5% | 2.93 | 3.35 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 68 | 0 | 68 | 275 | 89 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.4% | 8.4% | 24.0% | 3.6% | 2.93 | 3.41 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 24 | 0 | 22 | 103 | 27 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.2% | 10.7% | 15.5% | 0.0% | 4.57 | 2.24 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 24 | 0 | 22 | 103 | 27 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 26.2% | 10.7% | 15.5% | 0.0% | 4.57 | 2.13 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 74 | 0 | 74 | 310 | 98 | 29 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.6% | 9.4% | 22.3% | 3.7% | 3.63 | 3.67 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 74 | 0 | 74 | 310 | 98 | 29 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.6% | 9.4% | 22.3% | 3.9% | 3.63 | 3.73 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | Houston Astros | 70 | 0 | 65 | 263 | 79 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.0% | 6.5% | 23.6% | 1.1% | 3.72 | 1.97 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | Houston Astros | 70 | 0 | 65 | 263 | 79 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.0% | 6.5% | 23.6% | 1.1% | 3.72 | 2.06 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 34 | MLB | Houston Astros | 71 | 0 | 68 | 273 | 77 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 11.4% | 16.8% | 2.4% | 1.71 | 3.48 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 34 | MLB | Houston Astros | 71 | 0 | 68 | 273 | 77 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 11.4% | 16.8% | 2.6% | 1.71 | 3.54 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Houston Astros | 62 | 0 | 59 | 260 | 64 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 3.88 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Houston Astros | 62 | 0 | 59 | 260 | 64 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 14.6% | 3.1% | 4.10 | 4.01 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 31 | 140 | 43 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 0.8 | 28.2% | 12.1% | 16.1% | 4.6% | 6.46 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 31 | 140 | 43 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 0.8 | 30.7% | 11.4% | 19.3% | 5.0% | 6.46 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | HOU | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 3.3% | 4.18 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | HOU | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 4.63 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | HOU | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 4.63 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 678 | 0 | 664 | 2789 | 813 | 246 | 89 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 8.8% | 20.4% | 3.2% | 3.54 | 3.50 | +14.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 204 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 245 | 74 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.2% | 8.8% | 20.4% | 3.2% | 3.54 | 3.50 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 692 | 0 | 686 | 2892 | 837 | 260 | 82 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 9.0% | 19.9% | 2.8% | 3.44 | 3.35 | +16.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 202 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 244 | 76 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 9.0% | 19.9% | 2.8% | 3.44 | 3.35 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Héctor Neris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 25.8% | 10.9% | 3.3% | — | 4.93 | 24.6% | 13.0% | 38 | +0.43 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 37 | SU | 4.04 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .289 | 4.08 | 16.8% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.04 | 3.51 | 219 | 75 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 73 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 71 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 69 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.61 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .241 | 4.59 | 15.4% | 9.2% | 34 | +0.98 | 2.51 | 174 | 67 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.83 | 26.6% | 9.3% | 3.3% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 249 | 65 |
| Jean Machi R 2024 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 65 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 64 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2025 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 62 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 61 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 60 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 59 |
| Jason Motte R 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.16 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 113 | 59 |
| Joe Blanton R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 59 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.58 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 88 | +0.40 | 3.10 | 174 | 58 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.30 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.81 | 226 | 57 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2025 · 5.07 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.07 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 132 | 55 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2025 · 4.24 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.24 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 326 | 55 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.63 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 140 | 55 |
| Sergio Romo R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.76 | 26.4% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .241 | 4.79 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 80 | +1.03 | 1.71 | 371 | 54 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 41 | 25.3% | 11.2% | 1.36 | 4.39 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |