Héctor Neris
P
Houston Astros
+0.1
WAR
Age 37
RHP
6'2" / 227 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.15
FIP4.52
xFIP4.50
SIERA3.91
K%25.8%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%15.2%
IP34
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD5050
K†6060
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p7128.6%
K%
p8228.2%
xwOBA vs
p340.331
SL+0.6 (3%)
SI (7%)
CH-1.2 (5%)
FB-7.4 (49%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 59 | 0 | 78 | 343 | 76 | 33 | 9 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 3.71 | 3.97 | +1.0 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 79 | 0 | 80 | 328 | 102 | 27 | 9 | 31.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 2.58 | 3.02 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 74 | 0 | 75 | 320 | 86 | 23 | 9 | 26.9% | 7.2% | 2.3% | 3.01 | 2.98 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 72 | 0 | 66 | 277 | 107 | 22 | 11 | 37.3% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 4.07 | 2.99 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 68 | 0 | 68 | 275 | 89 | 23 | 10 | 32.4% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 2.93 | 3.12 | +1.5 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 24 | 0 | 22 | 103 | 27 | 11 | 0 | 26.2% | 10.7% | 0.0% | 4.57 | 2.24 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 74 | 0 | 74 | 310 | 98 | 29 | 12 | 31.6% | 9.4% | 3.8% | 3.63 | 3.69 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | Houston Astros | 70 | 0 | 65 | 263 | 79 | 17 | 3 | 30.0% | 6.5% | 1.1% | 3.72 | 1.99 | +2.2 |
| 2023 | 34 | MLB | Houston Astros | 71 | 0 | 68 | 273 | 77 | 31 | 7 | 28.2% | 11.4% | 2.7% | 1.71 | 3.67 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Houston Astros | 62 | 0 | 59 | 260 | 64 | 26 | 8 | 24.6% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 3.93 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 36 | MLB | Houston Astros | 39 | 0 | 31 | 140 | 43 | 16 | 7 | 28.2% | 12.1% | 5.0% | 6.46 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | HOU | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 24.9% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 4.11 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | HOU | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 32 | 14 | 5 | 24.0% | 10.8% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 692 | 0 | 686 | 2892 | 837 | 260 | 80 | 28.9% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 3.44 | 3.32 | +15.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 202 | 0 | 200 | 843 | 244 | 76 | 23 | 28.9% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 3.44 | 3.32 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Héctor Neris (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.61 | 24.9% | 10.5% | 3.4% | — | 4.79 | 24.0% | 13.2% | 32 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.87 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .289 | 4.16 | 16.8% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.29 | 3.50 | 219 | 73 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 72 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 69 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.47 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.43 | 240 | 67 |
| Jean Machi R 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 67 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.51 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 2.6% | .241 | 4.33 | 15.4% | 9.2% | 34 | +0.82 | 2.49 | 174 | 66 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.83 | 26.6% | 9.3% | 3.3% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 249 | 65 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2025 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 138 | 65 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2024 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 65 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 62 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2025 · 3.46 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.46 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.6% | .298 | 5.44 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.98 | 3.21 | 225 | 62 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 62 |
| Jason Motte R 2024 · 5.24 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.24 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 113 | 61 |
| Joe Blanton R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.01 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 240 | 60 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.30 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 326 | 60 |
| Zack Segovia R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 59 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.61 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.02 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 88 | +0.41 | 3.11 | 174 | 58 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.68 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 226 | 57 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2024 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.50 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 140 | 57 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.0% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 132 | 57 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.