Will Smith — OGILVIE

Will Smith P Kansas City Royals

Age 37 LHP 6'5" / 255 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.55

FIP4.60

K%18.2%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.2

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p1015.6%

xwOBA vs

p110.358

SL (45%)

CU (12%)

CH (15%)

FB-4.3 (29%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	26	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	76	0	63	264	91	23	5	0%	0.8	34.5%	8.7%	25.8%	1.8%	2.70	2.28	+1.7
2015	26	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	76	0	63	264	91	23	5	0%	0.8	34.5%	8.7%	25.8%	1.9%	2.70	2.34	+1.7
2016	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	56	0	44	180	53	17	3	0%	0.8	28.7%	10.2%	18.6%	1.9%	3.05	3.03	+0.8
2016	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	56	0	44	180	53	17	3	0%	0.8	29.4%	9.4%	20.0%	1.7%	3.05	2.74	+1.0
2018	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	62	0	60	238	82	11	3	0%	1.0	33.8%	5.2%	28.6%	1.5%	2.54	1.76	+2.0
2018	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	62	0	60	238	82	11	3	0%	1.0	34.5%	4.6%	29.8%	1.3%	2.54	1.58	+2.2
2019	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	63	0	65	257	96	19	10	0%	1.0	37.4%	7.4%	30.0%	4.2%	2.76	3.19	+1.1
2019	30	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	63	0	65	257	96	19	10	0%	1.0	37.4%	7.4%	30.0%	3.9%	2.76	3.02	+1.2
2020	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	18	0	16	62	18	4	7	0%	0.9	29.0%	6.5%	22.6%	11.3%	4.50	7.66	-0.6
2020	31	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	18	0	16	62	18	4	7	0%	0.9	29.0%	6.5%	22.6%	11.3%	4.50	7.29	-0.5
2021	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	71	0	68	283	87	26	11	0%	1.0	30.7%	9.2%	21.6%	3.9%	3.44	3.80	+0.6
2021	32	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	71	0	68	283	87	26	11	0%	1.0	30.7%	9.2%	21.6%	3.9%	3.44	3.79	+0.6
2022	33	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	65	0	59	261	65	22	9	0%	0.9	24.9%	8.4%	16.5%	3.5%	3.97	4.01	+0.4
2022	33	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	65	0	59	261	65	22	9	0%	0.9	24.9%	8.4%	16.5%	3.4%	3.97	4.00	+0.4
2023	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	60	0	57	226	55	13	5	0%	1.0	24.3%	5.8%	18.6%	2.1%	4.40	2.90	+1.1
2023	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	60	0	57	226	55	13	5	0%	1.0	24.3%	5.8%	18.6%	2.1%	4.40	2.90	+1.1
2023	34	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	60	0	57	226	55	13	5	0%	1.0	24.3%	5.8%	18.6%	2.2%	4.40	3.00	+1.1
2024	35	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	45	0	41	186	29	13	7	0%	0.9	15.6%	7.0%	8.6%	4.1%	6.53	4.90	-0.2
2024	35	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	45	0	41	186	29	13	7	0%	0.9	15.6%	7.0%	8.6%	4.1%	6.53	4.90	-0.2
2024	35	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	45	0	41	186	29	13	7	0%	0.9	15.6%	7.0%	8.6%	3.8%	6.53	4.84	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			505	0	464	1916	560	148	60	0%	0.9	29.2%	7.7%	21.5%	3.1%	3.63	3.32	+6.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	37	MLB	KC	4	0	4	17	3	1	1	0%	1.0	18.2%	7.3%	10.9%	3.2%	4.55	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	38	MLB MLE	KC	44	0	46	195	33	16	7	0%	1.1	17.1%	8.0%	9.1%	3.6%	4.84	5.03	-0.3
2028	39	MLB MLE	KC	38	0	40	168	27	15	7	0%	1.0	15.9%	8.7%	7.2%	4.1%	5.21	5.46	-0.4
2027	38	MLB CTX	KC	44	0	46	194	33	16	7	0%	1.0	17.1%	8.0%	9.1%	3.6%	4.84	5.03	-0.2
2028	39	MLB CTX	KC	38	0	40	169	27	15	7	0%	1.1	15.9%	8.7%	7.2%	4.1%	5.21	5.46	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		587	0	550	2280	620	178	74	0%	0.9	27.2%	7.8%	19.4%	3.2%	3.85	3.57	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		214	0	200	829	226	65	27	0%	0.9	27.2%	7.8%	19.4%	3.2%	3.85	3.57	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		516	0	475	1957	573	151	62	0%	0.9	29.3%	7.7%	21.6%	3.2%	3.58	3.35	+6.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		217	0	200	824	241	63	26	0%	0.9	29.3%	7.7%	21.6%	3.2%	3.58	3.35	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Will Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	18.2%	7.3%	3.2%	—	5.23	16.5%	8.2%	86	+0.63	—	—	—
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	78
Jorge De La Rosa L 2018 · 4.07 FIP	37	SU	4.07	19.3%	9.5%	2.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	405	71
Craig Breslow L 2018 · 5.13 FIP	37	SU	5.13	17.8%	15.1%	2.9%	.400	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	159	61
Santiago Casilla R 2017 · 4.13 FIP	37	SU	4.13	22.0%	8.1%	3.4%	.289	4.14	16.8%	1.6%	44	+0.01	3.50	219	41
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	40
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	39
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	39
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	39
Matt Belisle R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	37	SU	3.62	21.9%	6.5%	2.8%	.241	4.60	15.4%	9.2%	34	+0.98	2.51	174	39
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	38
Ramon E Ramirez R 2017 · 3.49 FIP	35	SU	3.49	14.0%	5.8%	1.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	140	37
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	37
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	37
Ryan Madson R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	37	SU	3.49	23.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	1.42	240	36
Peter Moylan R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	37	SU	3.59	17.7%	7.9%	1.8%	.263	4.00	18.5%	8.6%	88	+0.41	3.11	174	36
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	36
Jason Motte R 2017 · 5.16 FIP	35	SU	5.16	16.3%	11.4%	3.6%	.193	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	113	35
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	35
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	35
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	35

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	17.2%	7.9%	1.38	4.83
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38