Will Smith
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 37
LHP
6'5" / 255 lbs
MLB
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111120vR 130
ERA4.55
FIP4.60
K%18.2%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.2
Whiff%
p3923.7%
K%
p1015.6%
xwOBA vs
p110.358
SL (45%)
CU (12%)
CH (15%)
FB-4.3 (29%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 76 | 0 | 63 | 264 | 91 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 0.8 | 34.5% | 8.7% | 25.8% | 2.0% | 2.70 | 2.38 | +1.7 |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 76 | 0 | 63 | 264 | 91 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 0.8 | 34.5% | 8.7% | 25.8% | 1.9% | 2.70 | 2.34 | +1.7 |
| 2016 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 56 | 0 | 44 | 180 | 53 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 28.7% | 10.2% | 18.6% | 2.0% | 3.05 | 3.03 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 56 | 0 | 44 | 180 | 53 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 29.4% | 9.4% | 20.0% | 1.7% | 3.05 | 2.74 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 62 | 0 | 60 | 238 | 82 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 33.8% | 5.2% | 28.6% | 1.6% | 2.54 | 1.76 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 62 | 0 | 60 | 238 | 82 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.5% | 4.6% | 29.8% | 1.3% | 2.54 | 1.58 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 63 | 0 | 65 | 257 | 96 | 19 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.4% | 7.4% | 30.0% | 4.2% | 2.76 | 3.20 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 63 | 0 | 65 | 257 | 96 | 19 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.4% | 7.4% | 30.0% | 3.9% | 2.76 | 3.02 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 18 | 0 | 16 | 62 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.0% | 6.5% | 22.6% | 11.3% | 4.50 | 7.66 | -0.6 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 18 | 0 | 16 | 62 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.0% | 6.5% | 22.6% | 11.3% | 4.50 | 7.29 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 71 | 0 | 68 | 283 | 87 | 26 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.7% | 9.2% | 21.6% | 3.9% | 3.44 | 3.80 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 71 | 0 | 68 | 283 | 87 | 26 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.7% | 9.2% | 21.6% | 3.9% | 3.44 | 3.79 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | Houston Astros | 65 | 0 | 59 | 261 | 65 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 3.3% | 3.97 | 3.85 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | Houston Astros | 65 | 0 | 59 | 261 | 65 | 22 | 9 | 0% | 0.9 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 3.4% | 3.97 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 60 | 0 | 57 | 226 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 5.8% | 18.6% | 2.2% | 4.40 | 2.96 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 60 | 0 | 57 | 226 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 5.8% | 18.6% | 2.2% | 4.40 | 3.00 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 45 | 0 | 41 | 186 | 29 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 15.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 4.0% | 6.53 | 4.88 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 45 | 0 | 41 | 186 | 29 | 13 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 15.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 6.53 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | KC | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 41 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 7.3% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | KC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 33 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | KC | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 27 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 5.21 | 5.46 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | KC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 33 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 4.84 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 39 | MLB | KC | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 27 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 5.21 | 5.46 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 587 | 0 | 550 | 2280 | 620 | 178 | 74 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.2% | 7.8% | 19.4% | 3.2% | 3.85 | 3.57 | +11.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 214 | 0 | 200 | 829 | 226 | 65 | 27 | 0% | 0.9 | 27.2% | 7.8% | 19.4% | 3.2% | 3.85 | 3.57 | +4.3 | ||
| Career | — | 516 | 0 | 475 | 1957 | 573 | 151 | 62 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.3% | 7.7% | 21.6% | 3.2% | 3.58 | 3.35 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 217 | 0 | 200 | 824 | 241 | 63 | 26 | 0% | 0.9 | 29.3% | 7.7% | 21.6% | 3.2% | 3.58 | 3.35 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 18.2% | 7.3% | 3.2% | — | 5.23 | 16.5% | 8.2% | 86 | +0.63 | — | — | — |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.99 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 405 | 81 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2024 · 3.56 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.56 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 117 | 79 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.47 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 109 | 62 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.02 | 17.8% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .400 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 159 | 59 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 37 | SU | 4.04 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .289 | 4.08 | 16.8% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.04 | 3.51 | 219 | 40 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2025 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 40 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 39 |
| Jean Machi R 2024 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 39 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2024 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 38 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.61 | 21.9% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .241 | 4.59 | 15.4% | 9.2% | 34 | +0.98 | 2.51 | 174 | 38 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 38 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.63 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 140 | 38 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 38 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 37 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.58 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 88 | +0.40 | 3.10 | 174 | 36 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42 | 240 | 36 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 36 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.41 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 35 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 35 |
| Jason Motte R 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.16 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 113 | 35 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 47 | 17.2% | 7.9% | 1.38 | 4.83 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |