Will Smith
P
Kansas City Royals
+0.2
WAR
Age 37
LHP
6'5" / 255 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.80
FIP4.43
xFIP5.41
SIERA4.85
K%20.7%
BB%7.9%
K-BB%12.8%
IP32
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD3535
K†4545
FB Velo
p1091.2
Whiff%
p3923.7%
K%
p1015.6%
xwOBA vs
p110.358
SL (45%)
CU (12%)
CH (15%)
FB-4.3 (29%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 76 | 0 | 63 | 264 | 91 | 23 | 5 | 34.5% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 2.70 | 2.39 | +1.9 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 56 | 0 | 44 | 180 | 53 | 17 | 3 | 28.7% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 3.05 | 3.05 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 29 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 62 | 0 | 60 | 238 | 82 | 11 | 3 | 33.8% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 2.54 | 1.76 | +2.2 |
| 2019 | 30 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 63 | 0 | 65 | 257 | 96 | 19 | 10 | 37.4% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.76 | 3.24 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 31 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 18 | 0 | 16 | 62 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 29.0% | 6.5% | 10.8% | 4.50 | 7.42 | -0.4 |
| 2021 | 32 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 71 | 0 | 68 | 283 | 87 | 26 | 11 | 30.7% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 3.44 | 3.82 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 33 | MLB | Houston Astros | 65 | 0 | 59 | 261 | 65 | 22 | 9 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 3.97 | 3.91 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 34 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 60 | 0 | 57 | 226 | 55 | 13 | 5 | 24.3% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 4.40 | 2.74 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 35 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 45 | 0 | 41 | 186 | 29 | 13 | 7 | 15.6% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 6.53 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | MLB | KC | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 19.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.78 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 38 | MLB | KC | 30 | — | 30 | 126 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 18.7% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 516 | 0 | 475 | 1957 | 573 | 151 | 61 | 29.3% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 3.58 | 3.32 | +10.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 217 | 0 | 200 | 824 | 241 | 64 | 26 | 29.3% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 3.58 | 3.32 | +4.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Will Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.53 | 19.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | — | 4.71 | 18.7% | 10.5% | 30 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.12 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 2.6% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 405 | 78 |
| Heriberto Ruelas L 2024 · 3.42 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.42 | 17.2% | 6.7% | 1.7% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 117 | 77 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.57 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 395 | 71 |
| Wilfredo Ledezma L 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.38 | 26.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 109 | 65 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.42 | 11.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 138 | 64 |
| J.A. Happ L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.92 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .221 | 5.14 | 18.2% | 11.0% | 152 | +1.22 | 3.20 | 1,053 | 62 |
| Craig Breslow L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.15 | 17.8% | 15.1% | 3.0% | .400 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 159 | 61 |
| Oscar Rivera L 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.57 | 9.8% | 7.8% | 4.2% | .252 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 237 | 57 |
| Horacio Ramirez L 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 37 | SW | 4.06 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.64 | 5.7% | -0.3% | 35 | +0.58 | 3.35 | 199 | 55 |
| Wandy Rodriguez L 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 36 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 101 | 45 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.73 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 109 | 44 |
| Tsuyoshi Wada L 2023 · 3.59 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.59 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.59 | 119 | 41 |
| Juan Antonio Pena L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.6% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 149 | 41 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.87 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .289 | 4.16 | 16.8% | 1.6% | 44 | +0.29 | 3.50 | 219 | 39 |
| Jean Machi R 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 39 |
| Mauricio Lara L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 37 | SP- | 3.67 | 12.1% | 7.6% | 1.1% | .294 | 4.32 | 12.2% | 5.6% | 219 | +0.65 | 3.59 | 444 | 38 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 37 | SP- | 4.94 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 4.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 408 | 38 |
| Chris Narveson L 2024 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.63 | 12.2% | 10.4% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.62 | 249 | 38 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 38 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2025 · 5.45 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.45 | 12.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 445 | 38 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.