Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 48 | 16 | 115 | 492 | 110 | 24 | 11 | 33% | 2.4 | 22.4% | 4.9% | 17.5% | 2.2% | 4.00 | 3.04 | +3.2 |
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 48 | 16 | 115 | 492 | 110 | 24 | 11 | 33% | 2.4 | 22.4% | 4.9% | 17.5% | 2.2% | 4.00 | 3.06 | +3.1 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 46 | 201 | 66 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.1% | 8.6% | 23.5% | 3.7% | 5.05 | 3.51 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 0 | 46 | 201 | 66 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.8% | 8.5% | 24.4% | 3.5% | 5.05 | 3.32 | +0.7 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 6 | 55 | 235 | 66 | 24 | 6 | 16% | 1.5 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 16.3% | 3.1% | 3.42 | 3.83 | +0.5 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 6 | 55 | 235 | 66 | 24 | 6 | 16% | 1.5 | 28.1% | 10.2% | 17.9% | 2.6% | 3.42 | 3.43 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 65 | 0 | 64 | 266 | 79 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.7% | 9.4% | 20.3% | 3.0% | 2.94 | 3.42 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 65 | 0 | 64 | 266 | 79 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.7% | 9.4% | 20.3% | 3.0% | 2.94 | 3.43 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 24 | 0 | 23 | 96 | 38 | 7 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 39.6% | 7.3% | 32.3% | 5.2% | 3.86 | 3.51 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 24 | 0 | 23 | 96 | 38 | 7 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 39.6% | 7.3% | 32.3% | 5.2% | 3.86 | 3.53 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 68 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 83 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.2% | 7.5% | 23.7% | 3.8% | 3.59 | 3.49 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 68 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 83 | 20 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 31.2% | 7.5% | 23.7% | 3.8% | 3.59 | 3.48 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 0 | 29 | 128 | 34 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.0% | 8.1% | 18.9% | 3.6% | 4.97 | 3.83 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 0 | 29 | 128 | 34 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 7.8% | 18.8% | 3.1% | 4.97 | 3.58 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 50 | 222 | 42 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 19.5% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 3.40 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 0 | 50 | 222 | 42 | 26 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.9% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 3.40 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 128 | 0 | 135 | 568 | 133 | 55 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.7% | 13.7% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.34 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | OAK | 112 | 0 | 117 | 496 | 111 | 51 | 17 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | OAK | 96 | 0 | 101 | 426 | 90 | 47 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 4.91 | 5.17 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | OAK | 111 | 0 | 117 | 494 | 110 | 51 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | OAK | 96 | 0 | 101 | 426 | 90 | 47 | 16 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 4.91 | 5.17 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 556 | 17 | 623 | 2648 | 677 | 229 | 86 | 3% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 8.6% | 16.9% | 3.2% | 4.13 | 3.81 | +11.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 178 | 5 | 200 | 850 | 217 | 74 | 28 | 3% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 8.6% | 16.9% | 3.2% | 4.13 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 374 | 22 | 446 | 1906 | 514 | 153 | 58 | 6% | 1.2 | 27.0% | 8.0% | 18.9% | 3.0% | 3.81 | 3.50 | +9.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 10 | 200 | 855 | 230 | 68 | 26 | 6% | 1.2 | 27.0% | 8.0% | 18.9% | 3.0% | 3.81 | 3.50 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Trevor May (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.4% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.94 | 21.8% | 11.1% | 218 | +0.60 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 73 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 72 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 71 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 69 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 66 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.70 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .278 | 4.06 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.36 | 3.51 | 219 | 66 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 66 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.28 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 244 | 65 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 65 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 65 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.44 | 26.3% | 11.5% | 2.0% | .337 | 3.53 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 110 | +0.09 | 2.48 | 200 | 64 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.21 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .341 | 7.33 | 8.3% | -0.9% | 22 | +4.12 | 3.21 | 209 | 63 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 62 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 61 |
| Logan Kensing R 2025 · 3.26 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.26 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 1.0% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 172 | 60 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 60 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 58 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 58 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.35 | 23.9% | 10.9% | 1.6% | .222 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 349 | 56 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 118 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 1.28 | 4.50 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Nate Karns ('17) | 3 | 96 | 24.2% | 9.3% | 1.22 | 4.24 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Kyle Wright ('23) | 3 | 83 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 1.12 | 3.97 |
| Triston McKenzie ('24) | 4 | 105 | 26.0% | 9.4% | 1.52 | 3.94 |