Matt Barnes — OGILVIE

Matt Barnes P Washington Nationals

Age 36 RHP 6'4" / 208 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.37

FIP4.32

K%22.0%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.2%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.4

Whiff%

p2321.5%

p1216.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.367

FB+1.1 (39%)

CU (43%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	7	81	369	80	37	12	14%	1.6	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	3.4%	4.80	4.55	+0.0
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	7	81	369	80	37	12	14%	1.6	21.7%	10.0%	11.7%	3.3%	4.80	4.43	+0.1
2016	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	62	0	67	287	71	30	6	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.5%	14.3%	2.1%	4.05	3.51	+0.8
2016	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	62	0	67	287	71	30	6	0%	1.1	24.7%	10.5%	14.3%	2.1%	4.05	3.49	+0.8
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	71	1	71	292	84	29	7	1%	1.0	28.9%	9.8%	19.2%	2.5%	3.82	3.27	+1.1
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	71	1	71	292	84	29	7	1%	1.0	28.8%	9.9%	18.8%	2.4%	3.82	3.24	+1.1
2018	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	62	0	62	265	96	30	5	0%	1.0	36.2%	11.3%	24.9%	1.9%	3.65	2.54	+1.5
2018	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	62	0	62	265	96	30	5	0%	1.0	36.2%	11.3%	24.9%	1.9%	3.65	2.50	+1.5
2019	29	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	70	0	64	285	110	36	8	0%	0.9	38.6%	12.6%	26.0%	2.9%	3.78	3.02	+1.2
2019	29	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	70	0	64	285	110	36	8	0%	0.9	38.6%	12.6%	26.0%	2.8%	3.78	2.98	+1.2
2020	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	24	0	23	102	31	13	4	0%	1.0	30.4%	12.7%	17.6%	4.0%	4.30	4.36	+0.1
2020	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	24	0	23	102	31	13	4	0%	1.0	30.4%	12.7%	17.6%	3.9%	4.30	4.36	+0.1
2021	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	62	1	57	232	87	18	8	2%	0.9	37.8%	8.1%	29.7%	3.7%	3.97	2.96	+1.1
2021	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	62	1	57	232	87	18	8	2%	0.9	37.5%	7.8%	29.7%	3.4%	3.97	2.82	+1.2
2022	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	52	3	47	216	45	24	3	6%	0.9	19.3%	11.4%	8.0%	1.2%	4.94	3.55	+0.6
2022	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	52	3	47	216	45	24	3	6%	0.9	20.8%	11.1%	9.7%	1.4%	4.94	3.54	+0.6
2023	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	3	25	113	23	11	2	11%	0.9	20.2%	9.1%	11.1%	2.1%	4.62	3.71	+0.3
2023	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	3	25	113	23	11	2	11%	0.9	20.2%	9.1%	11.1%	2.1%	4.62	3.71	+0.3
2023	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	3	25	113	23	11	2	11%	0.9	20.4%	9.7%	10.6%	1.8%	4.62	3.61	+0.3
2024	34	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	14	0	13	60	10	4	1	0%	1.0	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	1.7%	6.75	3.45	+0.2
2024	34	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	14	0	13	60	10	4	1	0%	1.0	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	1.7%	6.75	3.45	+0.2
2024	34	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	14	0	13	60	10	4	1	0%	1.0	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	1.7%	6.75	3.48	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			462	3	457	1982	578	203	52	1%	1.0	29.2%	10.2%	18.9%	2.6%	4.21	3.38	+6.4
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	36	MLB	WSH	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	22.0%	8.8%	13.2%	2.9%	4.37	4.32	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	WSH	39	0	41	171	36	16	6	0%	1.0	20.9%	9.4%	11.5%	3.3%	4.58	4.72	-0.1
2027	37	MLB CTX	WSH	39	0	41	173	36	16	6	0%	1.1	20.9%	9.4%	11.5%	3.3%	4.58	4.72	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		501	3	498	2153	614	219	58	1%	1.0	28.5%	10.2%	18.3%	2.7%	4.24	3.45	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	1	200	865	247	88	23	1%	1.0	28.5%	10.2%	18.3%	2.7%	4.24	3.45	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		493	15	510	2221	630	233	58	3%	1.0	28.4%	10.5%	17.9%	2.6%	4.24	3.47	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		193	6	200	872	247	92	23	3%	1.0	28.4%	10.5%	17.9%	2.6%	4.24	3.47	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Barnes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	22.0%	8.8%	2.9%	—	4.72	20.9%	11.5%	41	+0.40	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	76
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	73
John Axford R 2018 · 3.64 FIP	35	SU	3.64	23.2%	9.0%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	197	73
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	72
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	71
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	70
Blake Parker R 2021 · 3.86 FIP	36	SU	3.86	20.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.295	5.74	26.0%	14.0%	27	+1.88	2.52	339	70
Joaquín Benoit R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	38	SU	3.58	24.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.179	4.11	23.5%	12.9%	98	+0.53	3.58	164	69
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	69
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	68
Santiago Casilla R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	36	SU	3.69	27.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.278	4.13	19.8%	8.7%	103	+0.44	3.50	219	68
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	67
Blaine Boyer R 2017 · 3.24 FIP	36	SU	3.24	18.0%	7.6%	1.3%	.341	7.38	8.3%	-0.9%	22	+4.14	3.24	209	67
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	67
Matt Albers R 2019 · 4.13 FIP	36	SU	4.13	22.1%	10.1%	2.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	244	66
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	66
Carlos Torres R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	36	SU	4.28	17.8%	9.0%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	326	65
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	64
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	147	64
Kirby Yates R 2023 · 4.18 FIP	36	SU	4.18	31.5%	14.2%	3.5%	.202	3.00	31.7%	21.9%	143	-1.18	0.66	487	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	44	21.5%	9.1%	1.19	4.47
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47