Matt Barnes
P
Washington Nationals
Age 36
RHP
6'4" / 208 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 99
ERA4.37
FIP4.32
K%22.0%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP46
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.4
Whiff%
p2321.5%
K%
p1216.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.367
FB+1.1 (39%)
CU (43%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 7 | 81 | 369 | 80 | 37 | 12 | 14% | 1.6 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.49 | +0.5 |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 7 | 81 | 369 | 80 | 37 | 12 | 14% | 1.6 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 3.3% | 4.80 | 4.43 | +0.5 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 62 | 0 | 67 | 287 | 71 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 2.1% | 4.05 | 3.47 | +1.0 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 62 | 0 | 67 | 287 | 71 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 2.1% | 4.05 | 3.49 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 71 | 1 | 71 | 292 | 84 | 29 | 7 | 1% | 1.0 | 28.9% | 9.8% | 19.2% | 2.4% | 3.82 | 3.22 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 71 | 1 | 71 | 292 | 84 | 29 | 7 | 1% | 1.0 | 28.8% | 9.9% | 18.8% | 2.4% | 3.82 | 3.24 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 62 | 0 | 62 | 265 | 96 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.2% | 11.3% | 24.9% | 1.9% | 3.65 | 2.50 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 62 | 0 | 62 | 265 | 96 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.2% | 11.3% | 24.9% | 1.9% | 3.65 | 2.50 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 70 | 0 | 64 | 285 | 110 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 38.6% | 12.6% | 26.0% | 2.8% | 3.78 | 2.97 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 70 | 0 | 64 | 285 | 110 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 38.6% | 12.6% | 26.0% | 2.8% | 3.78 | 2.98 | +1.3 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 24 | 0 | 23 | 102 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.4% | 12.7% | 17.6% | 3.9% | 4.30 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 24 | 0 | 23 | 102 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 30.4% | 12.7% | 17.6% | 3.9% | 4.30 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 62 | 1 | 57 | 232 | 87 | 18 | 8 | 2% | 0.9 | 37.8% | 8.1% | 29.7% | 3.6% | 3.97 | 2.89 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 62 | 1 | 57 | 232 | 87 | 18 | 8 | 2% | 0.9 | 37.5% | 7.8% | 29.7% | 3.4% | 3.97 | 2.82 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 4 levels | 52 | 3 | 47 | 216 | 45 | 24 | 3 | 6% | 0.9 | 19.3% | 11.4% | 8.0% | 1.1% | 4.94 | 3.53 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 32 | MIX | 4 levels | 52 | 3 | 47 | 216 | 45 | 24 | 3 | 6% | 0.9 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 1.4% | 4.94 | 3.54 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 3 | 25 | 113 | 23 | 11 | 2 | 11% | 0.9 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 2.1% | 4.62 | 3.72 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 3 | 25 | 113 | 23 | 11 | 2 | 11% | 0.9 | 20.4% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 1.8% | 4.62 | 3.61 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 14 | 0 | 13 | 60 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 1.7% | 6.75 | 3.45 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 14 | 0 | 13 | 60 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 1.7% | 6.75 | 3.48 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 44 | 0 | 46 | 196 | 43 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | WSH | 39 | 0 | 41 | 171 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | WSH | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 501 | 3 | 498 | 2153 | 614 | 219 | 58 | 1% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 10.2% | 18.3% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 3.45 | +11.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 201 | 1 | 200 | 865 | 247 | 88 | 23 | 1% | 1.0 | 28.5% | 10.2% | 18.3% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 3.45 | +4.6 | ||
| Career | — | 493 | 15 | 510 | 2221 | 630 | 233 | 56 | 3% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 10.5% | 17.9% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 3.42 | +11.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 6 | 200 | 872 | 247 | 92 | 22 | 3% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 10.5% | 17.9% | 2.5% | 4.24 | 3.42 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Barnes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.72 | 20.9% | 11.5% | 41 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| John Axford R 2025 · 3.78 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.78 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 197 | 76 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 75 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 73 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.86 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .295 | 5.60 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 27 | +1.74 | 2.61 | 339 | 72 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 72 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 70 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 70 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 69 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 69 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 69 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.51 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .347 | 5.90 | 19.1% | 2.3% | 22 | +2.39 | 2.19 | 426 | 69 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 68 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.21 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .341 | 7.33 | 8.3% | -0.9% | 22 | +4.12 | 3.21 | 209 | 68 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.28 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 244 | 68 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.70 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .278 | 4.06 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.36 | 3.51 | 219 | 68 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 68 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 67 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 67 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 64 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 44 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 1.19 | 4.47 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |