Matt Barnes
P
Washington Nationals
+0.1
WAR
Age 36
RHP
6'4" / 208 lbs
MLB
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.96
FIP4.28
xFIP4.61
SIERA4.33
K%22.0%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%13.3%
IP11
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4040
CMD4040
K†5050
FB Velo
p1091.4
Whiff%
p2321.5%
K%
p1216.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.367
FB+1.1 (39%)
CU (43%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 49 | 7 | 81 | 369 | 80 | 37 | 12 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.60 | +0.5 |
| 2016 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 62 | 0 | 67 | 287 | 71 | 30 | 6 | 24.7% | 10.5% | 2.1% | 4.05 | 3.47 | +1.2 |
| 2017 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 71 | 1 | 71 | 292 | 84 | 29 | 7 | 28.9% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 3.43 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 62 | 0 | 62 | 265 | 96 | 30 | 5 | 36.2% | 11.3% | 1.9% | 3.65 | 2.49 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 70 | 0 | 64 | 285 | 110 | 36 | 8 | 38.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 3.78 | 3.00 | +1.4 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 24 | 0 | 23 | 102 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 30.4% | 12.7% | 4.3% | 4.30 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 31 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 62 | 1 | 57 | 232 | 87 | 18 | 8 | 37.8% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 3.97 | 2.95 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 32 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 52 | 3 | 47 | 216 | 45 | 24 | 3 | 19.3% | 11.4% | 1.1% | 4.94 | 3.52 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 33 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 27 | 3 | 25 | 113 | 23 | 11 | 2 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 2.0% | 4.62 | 3.65 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 34 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 14 | 0 | 13 | 60 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 1.4% | 6.75 | 3.33 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 11 | — | 11 | 47 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 5.01 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | WSH | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 493 | 15 | 510 | 2221 | 630 | 233 | 58 | 28.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 3.48 | +10.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 193 | 6 | 200 | 872 | 247 | 91 | 23 | 28.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 3.48 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Barnes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 21.9% | 8.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.48 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 20 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2024 · 3.98 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 104 | 70 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.78 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 2.6% | .295 | 5.73 | 26.0% | 14.0% | 27 | +1.95 | 2.41 | 339 | 70 |
| John Axford R 2025 · 3.62 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.62 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 197 | 70 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 69 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.64 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 1.8% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.19 | 404 | 69 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 67 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 67 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2024 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 66 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 66 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.11 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.86 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.75 | 3.11 | 174 | 65 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 65 |
| Charlie Morton R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.14 | 24.7% | 5.9% | 2.5% | .342 | 3.29 | 27.5% | 18.4% | 521 | +0.15 | 2.52 | 1,534 | 65 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.29 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 326 | 64 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 64 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.0% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 132 | 64 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.32 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 1.4% | .341 | 7.44 | 8.3% | -0.9% | 22 | +4.12 | 3.32 | 209 | 64 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 138 | 64 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.46 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.6% | .298 | 5.44 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.98 | 3.21 | 225 | 64 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 64 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 63 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.