Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 18 | 16 | 81 | 346 | 85 | 31 | 8 | 89% | 4.5 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.20 | 4.24 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 18 | 16 | 81 | 346 | 85 | 31 | 8 | 89% | 4.5 | 24.6% | 9.0% | 15.6% | 2.3% | 4.20 | 3.43 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 27 | 9 | 72 | 317 | 68 | 33 | 7 | 33% | 2.7 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.64 | 5.26 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 27 | 9 | 72 | 317 | 68 | 33 | 7 | 33% | 2.7 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | 3.64 | 3.85 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 46 | 190 | 62 | 16 | 2 | 3% | 1.4 | 27.5% | 9.0% | 18.5% | 1.3% | 3.11 | 2.63 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 1 | 46 | 190 | 62 | 16 | 2 | 3% | 1.4 | 32.6% | 8.4% | 24.2% | 1.1% | 3.11 | 2.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 19 | 0 | 23 | 118 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 4.8% | 9.00 | 5.16 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.06 | 4.06 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 37 | 177 | 38 | 20 | 6 | — | — | 21.7% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 7.13 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 23 | 97 | 38 | 20 | 6 | — | — | 39.6% | 20.4% | 19.2% | 5.9% | 11.47 | 5.60 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 32 | 0 | 33 | 140 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 30 | 0 | 32 | 135 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 49 | 0 | 55 | 241 | 52 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 4.24 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 181 | 0 | 200 | 885 | 191 | 103 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 98 | 26 | 222 | 971 | 197 | 100 | 30 | 27% | 2.3 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.37 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 23 | 200 | 873 | 177 | 90 | 27 | 27% | 2.3 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cameron Foster (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.52 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 33 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 79 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 79 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 78 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 78 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 78 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .230 | 3.59 | 23.5% | 7.2% | 40 | -0.49 | 2.74 | 188 | 78 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.43 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.7% | .321 | 2.78 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.65 | 2.29 | 538 | 77 |
| Caleb Bolden R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.55 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 222 | 77 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 77 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 77 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.74 | 277 | 77 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .339 | 3.34 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 166 | 77 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.99 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% | .417 | 2.87 | 19.5% | 13.2% | 71 | -1.12 | 1.94 | 143 | 76 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.86 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.1% | .295 | 3.60 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 269 | 76 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 76 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 76 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.13 | 24.2% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 217 | 76 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 76 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.88 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 2.5% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 386 | 76 |
| Tanner Kohlhepp R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.74 | 23.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 150 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 22.8% | 10.4% | 1.11 | 4.42 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |