Cullen Kafka
P
Spokane Indians
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.42
FIP4.42
K%22.6%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP47
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.3% | 0.0% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.88 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 4 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.3% | 0.0% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 19 | 13 | 81 | 375 | 80 | 32 | 3 | 68% | 4.3 | 15.8% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 1.2% | 5.11 | 3.68 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 19 | 13 | 81 | 375 | 80 | 32 | 3 | 68% | 4.3 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 12.8% | 0.8% | 5.11 | 2.79 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 22 | 6 | 67 | 304 | 56 | 32 | 7 | 27% | 3.0 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.57 | 4.88 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 22 | 6 | 67 | 304 | 56 | 32 | 7 | 27% | 3.0 | 18.4% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 2.3% | 4.57 | 4.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | COL | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.42 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 43 | 0 | 46 | 192 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | COL | 41 | 0 | 44 | 184 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | COL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 38 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | COL | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | COL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | COL | 27 | 0 | 28 | 118 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 3.4% | 4.67 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 64 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.26 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 82 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 45 | 19 | 153 | 698 | 107 | 75 | 12 | 42% | 3.4 | 15.4% | 10.7% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 4.71 | 4.13 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 25 | 200 | 912 | 140 | 97 | 16 | 42% | 3.4 | 15.4% | 10.7% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 4.71 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cullen Kafka (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.42 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.62 | 22.3% | 12.5% | 130 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 79 |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 77 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 75 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 75 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 75 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 74 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 74 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.87 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .368 | 4.57 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 148 | +0.70 | 3.64 | 560 | 74 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 72 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 72 |
| Preston Johnson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 72 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 72 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.64 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .301 | 4.41 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | -0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 72 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.24 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.11 | 159 | 72 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 71 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 71 |
| Ben Lively R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.82 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .312 | 3.15 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 77 | -1.67 | 3.15 | 1,049 | 71 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 71 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 70 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 44 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 1.23 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |