Tristan Stevens

P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX3 levels	24	15	95	3.41	3.03	19.1%	6.6%	—	K 15.0% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.68
2025	27	AAMIA	4	0	5	7.71	7.17	25.0%	5.0%	—	K 25.0% · BB 5.0% · FIP 7.11
2026	28	MIX2 levels	10	0	16	2.30	4.95	20.0%	7.3%	—	K 20.0% · BB 7.3% · FIP 5.33
2027PROJ	29	MLBMIA	1	0	1	4.46	4.46	19.6%	8.1%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBMIA	14	0	15	4.55	4.63	19.6%	8.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBMIA	20	0	21	4.69	4.80	19.5%	8.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsYoanner Negrin (age 31) · Ramon Delgado (age 29) · Jose Pina (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%19.6%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%11.5%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	24	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	3	0	4	14	3	0	0	0%	1.3	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.29	—
2022	24	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	3	0	4	14	3	0	0	0%	1.3	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	39	177	40	11	3	31%	3.0	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.7%	5.03	4.14	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	4	39	177	40	11	3	31%	3.0	22.6%	6.2%	16.4%	1.7%	5.03	2.90	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	15	95	393	75	26	5	62%	4.0	15.0%	7.3%	7.7%	1.7%	3.41	3.68	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	15	95	393	75	26	5	62%	4.0	15.0%	7.3%	7.7%	1.7%	3.41	3.68	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	15	95	393	75	26	5	62%	4.0	19.1%	6.6%	12.5%	1.3%	3.41	3.03	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	4	0	5	20	5	1	2	0%	1.2	25.0%	5.0%	20.0%	10.0%	7.71	7.11	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	4	0	5	20	5	1	2	0%	1.2	25.0%	5.0%	20.0%	10.0%	7.71	7.11	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	4	0	5	20	5	1	2	0%	1.2	25.0%	5.0%	20.0%	10.0%	7.71	7.17	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	16	55	11	4	3	0%	1.6	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	5.5%	2.30	5.33	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	16	55	11	4	3	0%	1.6	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	5.5%	2.30	5.33	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	16	55	11	4	3	0%	1.6	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	5.5%	2.30	4.95	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	MIA	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIA	46	0	48	205	40	17	6	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	3.1%	4.55	4.63	-0.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	MIA	38	0	40	170	33	15	6	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	3.4%	4.69	4.80	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIA	14	0	15	63	12	5	2	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.5%	11.1%	3.1%	4.55	4.63	-0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	MIA	20	0	21	89	17	8	3	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	3.4%	4.69	4.80	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	0	36	151	30	13	5	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	3.3%	4.63	4.35	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	72	28	0%	1.1	19.6%	8.8%	10.8%	3.3%	4.63	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		54	19	159	659	109	48	16	35%	2.9	16.5%	7.3%	9.2%	2.5%	3.74	4.00	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	24	200	831	137	61	21	35%	2.9	16.5%	7.3%	9.2%	2.5%	3.74	4.00	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 11 IPFIP 5.16 → 6.15 (+0.99)K% 20.5% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.51%	—	×0.810	16.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.100	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	5.13%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.15%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.16 → 6.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 5 IPFIP 7.11 → 8.06 (+0.95)K% 25.0% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.810	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.100	5.50%
HR / BF /BF	10.00%	÷1.103	×1.200	10.88%

Result: FIP 7.11 → 8.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 46 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.76 (+0.89)K% 20.5% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.53%	—	×0.740	15.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.37%	—	×1.180	8.69%
HR / BF /BF	1.05%	÷0.888	×1.300	1.54%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 45 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.60 (+0.47)K% 18.3% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.28%	—	×0.810	14.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.38%	—	×1.100	5.91%
HR / BF /BF	1.61%	÷1.064	×1.200	1.82%

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AJupiter Hammerheads · 35 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.14 (+1.10)K% 23.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.42%	—	×0.740	17.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.96%	—	×1.180	8.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.90%	÷0.924	×1.300	2.67%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tristan Stevens (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	19.6%	8.1%	2.9%	—	4.71	19.6%	10.9%	89	+0.25	—	—	—
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	82
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	81
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	78
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	77
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	75
Murphy Smith R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SW	4.32	13.6%	4.9%	3.2%	.267	4.57	13.6%	4.3%	63	+0.25	3.16	300	75
Felipe Arredondo R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	29	SW	3.92	17.2%	6.6%	2.6%	.281	4.71	15.4%	8.2%	139	+0.79	3.92	337	73
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	73
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	73
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	72
Willie Eyre R 2007 · 4.53 FIP	29	SU	4.53	13.7%	9.1%	2.6%	.306	2.87	11.1%	5.5%	18	-1.66	2.87	164	71
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	71
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	70
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	69
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	69
Spencer Bivens R 2023 · 3.91 FIP	29	SU	3.91	18.6%	10.6%	1.9%	.285	3.95	18.1%	11.4%	255	+0.04	3.52	391	69
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	68
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	68
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	68
David Goforth R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	29	SU	4.07	14.1%	8.6%	2.0%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	256	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	50	19.6%	8.5%	1.20	4.55
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*