Tristan Stevens — OGILVIE

Tristan Stevens P Pensacola Blue Wahoos

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%17.4%

BB%7.8%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP53

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	24	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	3	0	4	14	3	0	0	0%	1.3	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.29	—
2022	24	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	3	0	4	14	3	0	0	0%	1.3	21.4%	0.0%	21.4%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	39	177	40	11	3	31%	3.0	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.7%	5.03	4.14	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	4	39	177	40	11	3	31%	3.0	17.3%	8.2%	9.1%	2.7%	5.03	4.14	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	4	39	177	40	11	3	31%	3.0	22.6%	6.2%	16.4%	1.7%	5.03	2.90	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	15	95	393	75	26	5	62%	4.0	15.0%	7.3%	7.7%	1.7%	3.41	3.68	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	15	95	393	75	26	5	62%	4.0	15.0%	7.3%	7.7%	1.7%	3.41	3.68	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	15	95	393	75	26	5	62%	4.0	19.1%	6.6%	12.5%	1.3%	3.41	3.03	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	4	0	5	20	5	1	2	0%	1.2	25.0%	5.0%	20.0%	10.0%	7.71	7.11	—
2025	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	4	0	5	20	5	1	2	0%	1.2	25.0%	5.0%	20.0%	10.0%	7.71	7.11	—
2025	27	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	4	0	5	20	5	1	2	0%	1.2	25.0%	5.0%	20.0%	10.0%	7.71	7.17	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	10	0	16	55	11	4	3	0%	1.6	—	—	—	—	2.30	—	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	10	0	16	55	11	4	3	0%	1.6	—	—	—	—	2.30	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A RAW	MIA	3	0	4	16	3	1	1	0%	1.4	18.8%	6.2%	12.5%	6.2%	2.08	5.74	—
2026	28	AA RAW	MIA	7	0	11	39	8	3	2	0%	1.6	20.5%	7.7%	12.8%	5.1%	2.38	5.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	MIA	48	0	51	215	38	17	6	0%	1.1	17.8%	8.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.59	4.64	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIA	46	0	48	202	36	17	6	0%	1.0	17.8%	8.5%	9.3%	3.2%	4.71	4.80	-0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	MIA	42	0	45	188	33	17	6	0%	1.1	17.7%	8.9%	8.8%	3.4%	4.86	4.98	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	MIA	15	0	16	68	12	5	2	0%	1.1	17.8%	8.1%	9.6%	3.0%	4.59	4.64	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIA	24	0	25	106	19	9	3	0%	1.0	17.8%	8.5%	9.3%	3.2%	4.71	4.80	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	MIA	28	0	29	122	22	11	4	0%	1.0	17.7%	8.9%	8.8%	3.4%	4.86	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	70	294	52	25	9	0%	1.1	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	3.2%	4.75	4.46	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	150	72	26	0%	1.1	17.8%	8.6%	9.2%	3.2%	4.75	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		54	19	159	659	109	48	16	35%	2.9	16.5%	7.3%	9.2%	2.5%	3.74	4.00	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	24	200	831	137	61	21	35%	2.9	16.5%	7.3%	9.2%	2.5%	3.74	4.00	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tristan Stevens (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	17.4%	7.8%	2.8%	—	4.80	17.8%	9.3%	143	+0.26	—	—	—
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	89
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	85
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	85
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	85
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	85
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	83
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	82
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	82
Casey Sadler R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	28	SW	3.95	16.0%	7.8%	2.2%	.298	3.35	23.2%	16.5%	145	-0.60	2.21	385	82
Alfonso Sanchez R 2016 · 5.26 FIP	28	SW	5.26	15.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.244	5.55	11.2%	2.3%	115	+0.29	4.51	224	79
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	78
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	78
Anthony Bass R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	16.5%	7.0%	1.8%	.300	3.43	21.6%	14.2%	123	-0.13	2.93	432	77
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	76
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	76
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	76
Reinier Roibal R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	27	SW	4.37	16.9%	7.1%	3.3%	.371	4.91	17.5%	5.7%	37	+0.54	3.11	133	74
Donovan Hand R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SW	4.30	11.1%	4.3%	2.9%	.305	4.56	12.5%	5.7%	140	+0.26	4.30	237	74
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	73
Warwick Saupold R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	28	SW	4.82	13.7%	7.6%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	389	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	17.7%	8.3%	1.19	4.67
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63