Daniel Blair
P
Eugene Emeralds
+0.6
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.7 · 2029
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%12.1%
IP82
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 28 | 7 | 93 | 395 | 87 | 34 | 6 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 3.58 | 4.09 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 35 | 2 | 78 | 349 | 77 | 28 | 8 | 17.0% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 5.88 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 6 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 5 | 10 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.71 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 74 | 32 | 10 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 75 | 32 | 10 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.47 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 15 | 15 | 81 | 341 | 73 | 31 | 10 | 21.3% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.49 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 77 | 28 | 10 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.27 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SF | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 73 | 27 | 10 | 22.9% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 69 | 27 | 10 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.44 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 65 | 26 | 10 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 61 | 25 | 9 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 56 | 24 | 9 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.69 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SF | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 52 | 23 | 9 | 21.1% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 4.82 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 9 | 178 | 783 | 130 | 82 | 18 | 16.6% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 4.75 | 4.28 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 10 | 200 | 880 | 146 | 92 | 20 | 16.6% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 4.75 | 4.28 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Blair (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.41 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 242 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 89 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 88 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 86 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 86 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 83 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 83 |
| Brett Sears R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 83 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 82 |
| Wil Jensen R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.50 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 368 | 81 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .368 | 4.33 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 79 | +0.28 | 2.95 | 492 | 81 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 81 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.55 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.15 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.60 | 3.55 | 244 | 81 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 81 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 80 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 80 |
| Luis Cessa R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.54 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .272 | 4.05 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 167 | -0.49 | 3.15 | 891 | 80 |
| Tim Atherton R 2024 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 80 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .275 | 3.86 | 22.1% | 11.7% | 73 | +0.10 | 3.76 | 180 | 79 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 79 |
| Trent Baker R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 420 | 79 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $11M | $9M | -$2M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.