Daniel Blair — OGILVIE

Daniel Blair P Eugene Emeralds

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%18.7%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	7	93	395	87	34	6	25%	3.3	16.6%	10.0%	6.6%	2.1%	3.58	4.10	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	7	93	395	87	34	6	25%	3.3	16.6%	10.0%	6.6%	2.1%	3.58	4.10	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	7	93	395	87	34	6	25%	3.3	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	1.5%	3.58	3.16	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	35	2	78	349	77	28	8	6%	2.2	17.0%	9.2%	7.8%	2.8%	5.88	4.39	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	35	2	78	349	77	28	8	6%	2.2	17.0%	9.2%	7.8%	2.8%	5.88	4.39	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	35	2	78	349	77	28	8	6%	2.2	22.1%	8.0%	14.0%	2.3%	5.88	3.54	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	6	0	7	39	5	10	0	0%	1.2	12.8%	25.6%	-12.8%	0.0%	7.71	5.27	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	6	0	7	39	5	10	0	0%	1.2	12.8%	25.6%	-12.8%	0.0%	7.71	5.27	—
2025	26	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	6	0	7	39	5	10	0	0%	1.2	12.8%	25.6%	-12.8%	0.0%	7.71	5.96	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	SF	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	18.7%	9.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.71	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SF	53	0	56	234	45	22	7	0%	1.0	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.75	-0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	SF	50	0	53	224	43	22	7	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.7%	9.4%	3.2%	4.79	4.85	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	SF	19	0	20	84	16	8	3	0%	1.1	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.75	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	SF	28	0	29	122	23	12	4	0%	1.0	19.1%	9.7%	9.4%	3.2%	4.79	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	0	50	209	40	20	7	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.76	4.43	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	81	28	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.7%	9.4%	3.1%	4.76	4.43	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		69	9	178	783	130	82	18	13%	2.6	16.6%	10.5%	6.1%	2.3%	4.75	4.29	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	10	200	880	146	92	20	13%	2.6	16.6%	10.5%	6.1%	2.3%	4.75	4.29	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Blair (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	18.7%	9.4%	2.9%	—	4.80	19.1%	9.4%	108	+0.09	—	—	—
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	88
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	85
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	83
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	82
Anthony Bass R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	27	SU	3.56	16.5%	7.0%	1.8%	.300	3.43	21.6%	14.2%	123	-0.13	2.93	432	82
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	82
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	81
Roman Mendez R 2016 · 4.12 FIP	26	SU	4.12	19.5%	10.3%	2.5%	.246	4.68	20.9%	10.7%	116	+0.56	4.12	230	80
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	80
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	80
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	80
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	79
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	79
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	78
Jordan Milbrath R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	27	SU	4.01	21.5%	9.5%	2.8%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	386	78
Calvin Drummond R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	26	SW	3.55	16.9%	11.1%	0.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	112	78
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	78
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	78
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	78
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	18.9%	9.6%	1.18	4.74
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43