Daniel Blair

P Eugene Emeralds

Age 28 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	24	MIX2 levels	28	7	93	3.58	3.16	22.0%	8.6%	—	K 16.6% · BB 10.0% · FIP 4.10
2024	25	A+SF	35	2	78	5.88	3.54	22.1%	8.0%	—	K 17.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.39
2025	26	A+SF	6	0	7	7.71	5.96	12.8%	25.6%	—	K 12.8% · BB 25.6% · FIP 5.27
2026	27	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	28	MLBSF	—	—	0	4.54	4.54	20.8%	9.2%	—
2028PROJ30% MLB	29	MLBSF	12	0	13	4.59	4.64	20.8%	9.4%	-0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBSF	17	0	18	4.71	4.80	20.6%	9.7%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsColeman Huntley III (age 28) · Edwin Quirarte (age 28) · Emmanuel Chapman (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

K%20.8%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	7	93	395	87	34	6	25%	3.3	16.6%	10.0%	6.6%	2.1%	3.58	4.10	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	7	93	395	87	34	6	25%	3.3	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	1.5%	3.58	3.16	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	35	2	78	349	77	28	8	6%	2.2	17.0%	9.2%	7.8%	2.8%	5.88	4.39	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	35	2	78	349	77	28	8	6%	2.2	17.0%	9.2%	7.8%	2.8%	5.88	4.39	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	35	2	78	349	77	28	8	6%	2.2	22.1%	8.0%	14.0%	2.3%	5.88	3.54	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	6	0	7	39	5	10	0	0%	1.2	12.8%	25.6%	-12.8%	0.0%	7.71	5.27	—
2025	26	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	6	0	7	39	5	10	0	0%	1.2	12.8%	25.6%	-12.8%	0.0%	7.71	5.27	—
2025	26	A+ RAW	Eugene Emeralds	6	0	7	39	5	10	0	0%	1.2	12.8%	25.6%	-12.8%	0.0%	7.71	5.96	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SF	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	9.2%	11.6%	3.0%	4.54	4.54	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SF	41	0	43	181	38	17	6	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	3.1%	4.59	4.64	-0.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	SF	34	0	36	152	31	15	5	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	3.3%	4.71	4.80	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	SF	12	0	13	55	11	5	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.4%	11.4%	3.1%	4.59	4.64	-0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	SF	17	0	18	76	16	7	3	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.7%	10.9%	3.3%	4.71	4.80	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	0	31	132	27	13	4	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	3.3%	4.66	4.35	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	83	26	0%	1.1	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	3.3%	4.66	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		69	9	178	783	130	82	18	13%	2.6	16.6%	10.5%	6.1%	2.3%	4.75	4.29	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	10	200	880	146	92	20	13%	2.6	16.6%	10.5%	6.1%	2.3%	4.75	4.29	-0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 A+Eugene Emeralds · 7 IPFIP 5.27 → 6.00 (+0.74)K% 12.8% → 9.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.82%	—	×0.770	9.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	25.64%	—	×1.150	29.49%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.980	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 5.27 → 6.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Eugene Emeralds · 78 IPFIP 3.51 → 4.39 (+0.88)K% 22.1% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.06%	—	×0.770	16.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.02%	—	×1.150	9.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.29%	÷1.010	×1.250	2.84%

Result: FIP 3.51 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASan Jose Giants · 53 IPFIP 3.42 → 4.55 (+1.13)K% 21.1% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.13%	—	×0.740	15.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.45%	—	×1.180	9.97%
HR / BF /BF	1.88%	÷0.890	×1.300	2.74%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 3.42 → 4.55, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Eugene Emeralds · 40 IPFIP 2.87 → 3.58 (+0.71)K% 23.1% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.08%	—	×0.770	17.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.79%	—	×1.150	10.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.10%	÷1.076	×1.250	1.28%

Result: FIP 2.87 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Blair (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.54	20.8%	9.2%	3.0%	—	4.71	20.7%	11.2%	79	+0.17	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	87
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	80
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	80
Luis Santos R 2019 · 4.31 FIP	28	SU	4.31	22.9%	10.0%	3.4%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	472	79
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	78
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	78
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	78
Miguel Mejia R 2016 · 3.37 FIP	28	SU	3.37	19.6%	7.2%	1.8%	.359	5.21	12.8%	2.8%	47	+1.84	3.37	108	77
Nelson Gonzalez R 2018 · 5.03 FIP	28	SW	5.03	19.2%	8.2%	4.6%	.311	6.22	16.9%	4.6%	74	+1.19	3.42	258	77
Robert Kwiatkowski R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	27	SU	4.03	18.3%	9.0%	2.4%	.255	4.23	15.9%	2.3%	20	+0.20	4.03	254	77
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	77
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	76
Murphy Smith R 2016 · 3.54 FIP	28	SU	3.54	19.3%	9.3%	1.6%	.245	4.43	13.6%	6.8%	145	+0.89	3.16	300	76
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	76
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	76
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	76
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	76
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	76
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	75
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	20.7%	9.4%	1.21	4.60
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*