Robert Kwiatkowski
P Knoxville Smokies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 26 | MIX2 levels | 34 | 3 | 59 | 4.10 | 3.86 | 21.0% | 7.6% | — | K 16.4% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.88 | |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX2 levels | 36 | 2 | 79 | 2.86 | 3.41 | 22.1% | 7.8% | — | K 18.3% · BB 9.0% · FIP 4.03 | |
| 2025 | 28 | AACHC | 15 | 0 | 20 | 4.12 | 3.66 | 19.6% | 12.4% | — | K 15.9% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.23 | |
| 2026 | 29 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 30 | MLBCHC | — | — | 0 | 4.77 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 10.6% | — | ||
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 31 | MLBCHC | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4.84 | 4.92 | 19.4% | 10.8% | -0.0 | ||
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 24 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | 31 | 1 | 70 | 300 | 39 | 20 | 3 | 3% | 2.3 | 9.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.58 | 4.12 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | A RAW | Salem Red Sox | 31 | 1 | 70 | 300 | 39 | 20 | 3 | 3% | 2.3 | 13.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 3.58 | 3.40 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | 30 | 0 | 33 | 171 | 25 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.3% | 12.1% | -0.8% | 0.7% | 6.75 | 4.09 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | 30 | 0 | 33 | 171 | 25 | 18 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | 0.6% | 6.75 | 3.61 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 34 | 3 | 59 | 238 | 50 | 18 | 7 | 9% | 1.7 | 16.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 4.10 | 4.88 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 34 | 3 | 59 | 238 | 50 | 18 | 7 | 9% | 1.7 | 21.0% | 7.6% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.10 | 3.86 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 36 | 2 | 79 | 321 | 71 | 25 | 7 | 6% | 2.2 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 2.86 | 4.03 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 36 | 2 | 79 | 321 | 71 | 25 | 7 | 6% | 2.2 | 18.3% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 2.86 | 4.03 | — |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 36 | 2 | 79 | 321 | 71 | 25 | 7 | 6% | 2.2 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 14.3% | 2.2% | 2.86 | 3.41 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | 15 | 0 | 20 | 97 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.9% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 4.12 | 4.23 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | 15 | 0 | 20 | 97 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.9% | 13.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 4.12 | 4.23 | — |
| 2025 | 28 | AA RAW | Knoxville Smokies | 15 | 0 | 20 | 97 | 19 | 12 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.6% | 12.4% | 7.2% | 1.0% | 4.12 | 3.66 | — |
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.4% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.77 | — |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 31 | MLB MLE | CHC | 16 | 0 | 16 | 70 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.92 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB CTX | CHC | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.54 | +0.0 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 77 | 39 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.54 | +0.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 146 | 6 | 261 | 1127 | 161 | 107 | 24 | 4% | 1.8 | 14.3% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 3.93 | 4.26 | -0.1 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 112 | 5 | 200 | 862 | 123 | 82 | 18 | 4% | 1.8 | 14.3% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 3.93 | 4.26 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 20 IPFIP 3.58 → 4.23 (+0.65)K% 19.6% → 15.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 19.59% | — | ×0.810 | 15.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 12.37% | — | ×1.100 | 13.61% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.03% | ÷0.911 | ×1.200 | 1.36% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).
Result: FIP 3.58 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 71 IPFIP 3.36 → 4.03 (+0.67)K% 22.6% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 22.60% | — | ×0.810 | 18.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 8.22% | — | ×1.100 | 9.04% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.05% | ÷1.018 | ×1.200 | 2.42% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).
Result: FIP 3.36 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 8 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.33 (+0.36)K% 17.2% → 14.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 17.24% | — | ×0.860 | 14.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 3.45% | — | ×0.900 | 3.10% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.45% | ÷0.996 | ×1.100 | 3.81% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).
Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greenville Drive · 43 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.87 (+1.09)K% 21.6% → 16.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 21.59% | — | ×0.770 | 16.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 7.39% | — | ×1.150 | 8.49% |
| HR / BF /BF | 2.84% | ÷0.931 | ×1.250 | 3.82% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 86).
Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 17 IPFIP 4.26 → 4.93 (+0.67)K% 19.4% → 15.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 19.35% | — | ×0.810 | 15.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 8.06% | — | ×1.100 | 8.87% |
| HR / BF /BF | 3.23% | ÷1.048 | ×1.200 | 3.69% |
Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).
Result: FIP 4.26 → 4.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greenville Drive · 33 IPFIP 3.52 → 4.09 (+0.57)K% 14.6% → 11.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 14.62% | — | ×0.770 | 11.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 10.53% | — | ×1.150 | 12.11% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.58% | ÷0.996 | ×1.250 | 0.73% |
Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).
Result: FIP 3.52 → 4.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ASalem Red Sox · 70 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.12 (+0.72)K% 13.0% → 9.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 13.00% | — | ×0.740 | 9.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 6.67% | — | ×1.180 | 7.87% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.00% | ÷0.858 | ×1.300 | 1.52% |
Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).
Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).