Sam Long — OGILVIE

Sam Long P Kansas City Royals

Age 31 LHP 6'1" / 185 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.88

FIP5.05

K%19.1%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p1019.1%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p240.342

SI (11%)

CU (19%)

SL-3.5 (26%)

FB-3.5 (45%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	11	3	27	115	35	9	1	27%	2.5	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	1.2%	3.33	3.26	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	11	3	27	115	35	9	1	27%	2.5	30.4%	7.8%	22.6%	0.9%	3.33	1.99	—
2017	22	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	6	0	8	43	7	10	0	0%	1.4	16.3%	23.3%	-7.0%	0.0%	1.08	4.67	—
2017	22	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	6	0	8	43	7	10	0	0%	1.4	16.3%	23.3%	-7.0%	0.0%	1.08	5.02	—
2019	24	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	30	15	97	390	112	27	7	50%	3.2	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.7%	3.06	3.85	—
2019	24	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	30	15	97	390	112	27	7	50%	3.2	28.7%	6.9%	21.8%	1.8%	3.06	2.56	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	12	83	342	93	28	7	43%	3.0	24.6%	8.5%	16.1%	2.3%	3.90	3.34	+1.2
2021	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	12	83	342	93	28	7	43%	3.0	27.2%	8.2%	19.0%	2.0%	3.90	2.97	+1.6
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	9	59	259	49	29	10	25%	1.6	18.2%	11.5%	6.7%	4.2%	3.81	5.33	-0.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	9	59	259	49	29	10	25%	1.6	18.9%	11.2%	7.7%	3.9%	3.81	5.12	-0.4
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	1	69	308	52	29	7	2%	1.2	15.8%	9.1%	6.7%	2.5%	5.90	4.29	+0.2
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	1	69	308	52	29	7	2%	1.2	15.8%	9.1%	6.7%	2.5%	5.90	4.29	+0.2
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	1	69	308	52	29	7	2%	1.2	16.9%	9.4%	7.5%	2.3%	5.90	4.18	+0.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	63	260	67	19	5	0%	1.1	24.3%	7.2%	17.1%	2.1%	2.56	3.10	+1.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	63	260	67	19	5	0%	1.1	24.3%	7.2%	17.1%	2.1%	2.56	3.10	+1.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	63	260	67	19	5	0%	1.1	25.8%	7.3%	18.5%	1.9%	2.56	2.91	+1.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	0	50	244	45	31	10	0%	1.0	17.6%	12.6%	5.1%	4.1%	6.26	5.44	-0.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	0	50	244	45	31	10	0%	1.0	17.6%	12.6%	5.1%	4.1%	6.26	5.44	-0.5
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	0	50	244	45	31	10	0%	1.0	18.4%	12.7%	5.7%	4.1%	6.26	5.74	-0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			162	12	211	921	180	83	30	7%	1.3	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	3.3%	4.65	4.42	+0.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	KC	4	0	4	17	3	2	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	3.3%	4.88	5.05	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	KC	47	0	50	210	38	24	7	0%	1.1	18.3%	11.4%	6.9%	3.5%	5.13	5.30	-0.4
2028	33	MLB MLE	KC	44	0	46	193	34	23	7	0%	1.0	17.4%	11.9%	5.6%	3.8%	5.40	5.58	-0.5
2029	34	MLB MLE	KC	40	0	42	176	29	22	7	0%	1.0	16.5%	12.4%	4.2%	4.1%	5.69	5.89	-0.6
2027	32	MLB CTX	KC	45	0	47	198	36	23	7	0%	1.0	18.3%	11.4%	6.9%	3.5%	5.13	5.30	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	KC	41	0	43	182	32	22	7	0%	1.0	17.4%	11.9%	5.6%	3.8%	5.40	5.58	-0.5
2029	34	MLB CTX	KC	36	0	38	160	27	20	7	0%	1.1	16.5%	12.4%	4.2%	4.1%	5.69	5.89	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		284	12	339	1463	275	147	50	4%	1.2	18.8%	10.1%	8.7%	3.4%	4.93	4.68	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		168	7	200	862	162	87	29	4%	1.2	18.8%	10.1%	8.7%	3.4%	4.93	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		276	40	457	1961	400	189	54	14%	1.7	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	2.7%	4.00	4.11	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	18	200	859	175	83	24	14%	1.7	20.4%	9.7%	10.7%	2.7%	4.00	4.11	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Long (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	19.1%	11.0%	3.3%	—	5.57	17.5%	5.6%	137	+0.52	—	—	—
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	77
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	77
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	75
Dan Jennings L 2018 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	16.6%	8.1%	2.1%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	244	74
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	71
Jake McGee L 2018 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	20.7%	6.6%	3.9%	.316	3.59	25.6%	21.2%	121	-0.74	1.39	350	71
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	69
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	69
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	69
James Jones L 2019 · 4.28 FIP	30	SU	4.28	21.9%	13.0%	2.5%	.230	4.65	23.9%	8.8%	35	+0.37	3.58	127	68
Kevin Chapman L 2018 · 5.66 FIP	30	SU	5.66	17.1%	15.7%	3.7%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	153	68
Scott Alexander L 2020 · 5.61 FIP	31	SU	5.61	17.3%	15.4%	3.7%	.212	3.15	14.5%	11.1%	81	-2.46	2.90	426	67
Jared Koenig L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	29	SU	4.16	20.7%	9.2%	3.0%	.364	2.92	23.7%	16.1%	146	-1.24	2.79	473	67
Brian Duensing L 2015 · 4.47 FIP	32	SU	4.47	11.5%	8.1%	2.4%	.252	3.76	20.2%	11.8%	137	-0.71	2.57	198	67
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2021 · 4.98 FIP	32	SU	4.98	15.2%	7.0%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	159	67
Tony Watson L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	21.3%	7.0%	4.0%	.227	3.43	21.4%	16.9%	187	-0.94	2.21	405	66
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	65
Ross Detwiler L 2017 · 5.84 FIP	31	SU	5.84	17.4%	14.2%	4.4%	.357	5.32	14.9%	7.8%	217	-0.52	3.49	512	65
Josh Outman L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	31	SU	4.53	15.3%	3.7%	4.1%	.323	5.73	12.8%	-1.0%	86	+1.20	4.53	106	63
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.59	249	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	17.9%	11.6%	1.40	5.25
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10