Sam Long

P Kansas City Royals

Age 32 LHP 6'1" / 185 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX2 levels	55	1	69	5.90	4.18	16.9%	9.4%	0.3	K 16.0% · BB 9.1% · FIP 4.27
2024	29	MIX2 levels	59	0	63	2.56	2.91	25.8%	7.3%	1.2	K 24.5% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.08
2025	30	MIX3 levels	51	0	50	6.26	5.74	18.4%	12.7%	-0.7	K 17.8% · BB 12.6% · FIP 5.43
2026	31	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	32	MLBKC	59	0	62	4.81	5.09	19.2%	11.5%	-0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBKC	26	0	27	5.15	5.37	18.4%	11.9%	-0.2
2029PROJ90% MLB	34	MLBKC	11	0	12	5.47	5.68	17.5%	12.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo32

xwOBA vs24

K%18

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Jack Taschner (age 32) · Adam Liberatore (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 128

ERA4.81

FIP5.09

K%19.2%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%7.8%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3293.2

Whiff%

p1019.1%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p240.342

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Princeton Rays	11	3	27	115	35	9	1	27%	2.5	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	1.2%	3.33	3.26	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Princeton Rays	11	3	27	115	35	9	1	27%	2.5	30.4%	7.8%	22.6%	0.9%	3.33	1.99	—
2017	22	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	6	0	8	43	7	10	0	0%	1.4	16.3%	23.3%	-7.0%	0.0%	1.08	4.67	—
2017	22	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	6	0	8	43	7	10	0	0%	1.4	16.3%	23.3%	-7.0%	0.0%	1.08	5.02	—
2019	24	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	30	15	97	390	112	27	7	50%	3.2	21.3%	8.2%	13.1%	2.7%	3.06	3.85	—
2019	24	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	30	15	97	390	112	27	7	50%	3.2	28.7%	6.9%	21.8%	1.8%	3.06	2.56	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	28	12	83	342	93	28	7	43%	3.0	24.6%	8.5%	16.1%	2.3%	3.90	3.34	+1.2
2021	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	28	12	83	342	93	28	7	43%	3.0	27.2%	8.2%	19.0%	2.0%	3.90	2.97	+1.6
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	9	59	259	49	29	10	25%	1.6	18.2%	11.5%	6.7%	4.2%	3.81	5.33	-0.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	9	59	259	49	29	10	25%	1.6	18.9%	11.2%	7.7%	3.9%	3.81	5.12	-0.4
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	1	69	308	52	29	7	2%	1.2	16.0%	9.1%	6.9%	2.5%	5.90	4.27	+0.2
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	1	69	308	52	29	7	2%	1.2	16.9%	9.4%	7.5%	2.3%	5.90	4.18	+0.3
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	63	260	67	19	5	0%	1.1	24.5%	7.2%	17.3%	2.1%	2.56	3.08	+1.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	59	0	63	260	67	19	5	0%	1.1	24.5%	7.2%	17.3%	2.1%	2.56	3.08	+1.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	59	0	63	260	67	19	5	0%	1.1	25.8%	7.3%	18.5%	1.9%	2.56	2.91	+1.2
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	0	50	244	45	31	10	0%	1.0	17.8%	12.6%	5.2%	4.1%	6.26	5.43	-0.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	51	0	50	244	45	31	10	0%	1.0	17.8%	12.6%	5.2%	4.1%	6.26	5.43	-0.5
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	51	0	50	244	45	31	10	0%	1.0	18.4%	12.7%	5.7%	4.1%	6.26	5.74	-0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			162	12	211	921	180	83	30	7%	1.3	19.5%	9.0%	10.5%	3.3%	4.65	4.42	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	KC	59	0	62	262	50	30	9	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.5%	7.8%	3.2%	4.81	5.09	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	KC	27	0	29	122	22	14	4	0%	1.1	18.4%	11.9%	6.5%	3.5%	5.15	5.37	-0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	KC	13	0	14	58	10	7	2	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.4%	5.1%	3.8%	5.47	5.68	-0.2
2028	33	MLB CTX	KC	26	0	27	114	21	14	4	0%	1.0	18.4%	11.9%	6.5%	3.5%	5.15	5.37	-0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	KC	11	0	12	51	9	6	2	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.4%	5.1%	3.8%	5.47	5.68	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		200	12	251	1089	210	103	36	6%	1.3	19.3%	9.5%	9.8%	3.3%	4.74	4.49	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		159	10	200	868	167	82	29	6%	1.3	19.3%	9.5%	9.8%	3.3%	4.74	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		276	40	457	1961	401	189	54	14%	1.7	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.7%	4.00	4.10	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		121	18	200	859	176	83	24	14%	1.7	20.5%	9.7%	10.8%	2.7%	4.00	4.10	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 9 IPFIP 5.97 → 6.19 (+0.22)K% 22.0% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.00%	—	×0.860	18.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.00%	—	×0.900	18.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.003	×1.100	4.39%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 5.97 → 6.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 21 IPFIP 1.24 → 1.52 (+0.28)K% 27.4% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.38%	—	×0.860	23.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.57%	—	×0.900	3.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.111	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.24 → 1.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 24 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.03 (+0.19)K% 18.3% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.35%	—	×0.860	15.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.09%	—	×0.900	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷0.996	×1.100	2.03%

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASacramento River Cats · 17 IPFIP 5.37 → 5.87 (+0.50)K% 20.5% → 18.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.51%	—	×0.880	18.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.51%	—	×1.050	21.54%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.989	×1.100	2.85%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 98).

Result: FIP 5.37 → 5.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASacramento River Cats · 26 IPFIP 2.73 → 3.20 (+0.48)K% 30.4% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.39%	—	×0.880	26.75%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.82%	—	×1.050	9.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.96%	÷0.995	×1.100	2.17%

Result: FIP 2.73 → 3.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 15 IPFIP 0.85 → 1.52 (+0.67)K% 36.7% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.67%	—	×0.810	29.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.100	7.33%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.923	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 0.85 → 1.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AKannapolis Intimidators · 97 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.85 (+1.31)K% 28.7% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.72%	—	×0.740	21.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.92%	—	×1.180	8.17%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷0.849	×1.300	2.75%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 8 IPFIP 4.67 → 5.56 (+0.89)K% 16.3% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.28%	—	×0.740	12.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	23.26%	—	×1.180	27.44%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.985	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.67 → 5.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Long (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	19.2%	11.5%	3.2%	—	5.47	18.1%	6.0%	43	+0.38	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	83
Jack Taschner L 2010 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	18.1%	11.7%	3.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	189	75
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	74
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	73
Doug Creek L 2001 · 4.48 FIP	32	SU	4.48	23.7%	15.8%	2.5%	.272	4.99	20.3%	7.6%	69	+0.51	4.48	277	73
Yorkis Perez L 2000 · 4.85 FIP	32	SU	4.85	18.9%	10.8%	3.6%	.284	4.54	20.8%	10.0%	27	-0.31	3.18	269	72
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	71
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	70
Ryan Buchter L 2019 · 4.75 FIP	32	SU	4.75	25.3%	10.6%	4.4%	.286	5.24	22.9%	9.7%	32	+0.49	2.37	296	69
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	68
Tom Martin L 2001 · 5.68 FIP	31	SU	5.68	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	.311	4.25	19.8%	11.1%	96	-1.43	3.40	303	68
Dan Runzler L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	32	SU	4.20	17.5%	11.0%	2.1%	.325	4.84	16.0%	3.0%	27	+0.64	2.84	187	68
Valerio De Los Santos L 2005 · 5.03 FIP	32	SU	5.03	15.5%	8.7%	3.9%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	239	67
Luis Perez L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	30	SU	4.00	15.2%	12.6%	1.1%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	173	66
Pedro Borbón L 2000 · 5.20 FIP	32	SU	5.20	13.6%	15.5%	2.4%	.274	4.23	21.1%	15.5%	104	-0.97	2.26	264	65
James Jones L 2021 · 5.35 FIP	32	SU	5.35	23.0%	11.4%	5.0%	.315	4.25	18.1%	3.1%	36	-1.10	3.58	127	64
Jamie Walker L 2003 · 4.26 FIP	32	SU	4.26	16.5%	5.9%	3.3%	.256	3.76	17.6%	14.1%	161	-0.50	3.48	442	64
Micah Bowie L 2007 · 4.60 FIP	32	SW	4.60	16.9%	10.9%	2.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	140	64
Chad Zerbe L 2003 · 3.89 FIP	31	SU	3.89	7.8%	5.5%	1.4%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	145	62
Edward Paredes L 2019 · 5.10 FIP	32	SU	5.10	21.5%	7.3%	5.3%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	130	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	39	19.3%	10.3%	1.28	4.76
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*