Sam Long
P
Kansas City Royals
+0.0
WAR
Age 31
LHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
MLB
ERA4.78
FIP4.79
xFIP5.12
SIERA4.85
K%20.6%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%10.2%
IP33
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4040
CMD4040
K†4545
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p1019.1%
K%
p1817.5%
xwOBA vs
p240.342
SI (11%)
CU (19%)
SL-3.5 (26%)
FB-3.5 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 11 | 3 | 27 | 115 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 1.2% | 3.33 | 3.26 | +0.5 |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 6 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 7 | 10 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.08 | — | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | 30 | 15 | 97 | 390 | 112 | 27 | 7 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.06 | 3.88 | +1.5 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 28 | 12 | 83 | 342 | 93 | 28 | 7 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 2.2% | 3.90 | 3.33 | +1.7 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 36 | 9 | 59 | 259 | 49 | 29 | 10 | 18.2% | 11.5% | 3.9% | 3.81 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 55 | 1 | 69 | 308 | 52 | 29 | 7 | 16.1% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 5.90 | 4.25 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 59 | 0 | 63 | 260 | 67 | 19 | 5 | 24.7% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 2.56 | 3.04 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 51 | 0 | 50 | 244 | 45 | 31 | 10 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 4.0% | 6.26 | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | KC | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | KC | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 26 | 15 | 4 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 5.01 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | KC | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 18.6% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 5.12 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | KC | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 22 | 14 | 4 | 17.9% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 5.25 | 5.33 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 276 | 40 | 457 | 1961 | 402 | 193 | 52 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 4.08 | +6.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 121 | 18 | 200 | 859 | 176 | 85 | 23 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 4.08 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Long (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.95 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 3.2% | — | 5.20 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 90 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.80 | 22.7% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .351 | 5.13 | 21.5% | 14.2% | 18 | +1.33 | 2.37 | 130 | 79 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 78 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.27 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 77 |
| Brandon Mann L 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 75 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 75 |
| Luke Westphal L 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 75 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 75 |
| Francisley Bueno L 2029 · 3.78 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.78 | 14.8% | 7.1% | 1.9% | .315 | 3.99 | 13.3% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.21 | 3.51 | 138 | 73 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 244 | 72 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2024 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 72 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 155 | 71 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.13 | 15.5% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .382 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 183 | 71 |
| Franklin Morales L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.03 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 2.2% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 101 | 70 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.47 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 4.2% | .316 | 3.55 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.92 | 1.36 | 350 | 69 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.08 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 145 | 69 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2025 · 5.60 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.60 | 17.1% | 15.7% | 3.6% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 153 | 69 |
| Brian Duensing L 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.76 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.70 | 2.63 | 198 | 68 |
| James Jones L 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.27 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 2.5% | .230 | 4.67 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 35 | +0.40 | 3.58 | 127 | 68 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2024 · 5.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.28 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.9% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.28 | 128 | 67 |
| Craig Breslow L 2029 · 5.04 FIP | 34 | SW | 5.04 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | .279 | 4.48 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.28 | 159 | 67 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.