Sam Long
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 31
LHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
MLB
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113123vR 132
ERA4.89
FIP5.06
K%19.3%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%7.9%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3293.2
Whiff%
p1019.1%
K%
p1817.5%
xwOBA vs
p240.342
SI (11%)
CU (19%)
SL-3.5 (26%)
FB-3.5 (45%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 11 | 3 | 27 | 115 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 27% | 2.5 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 1.2% | 3.33 | 3.26 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Princeton Rays | 11 | 3 | 27 | 115 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 27% | 2.5 | 30.4% | 7.8% | 22.6% | 0.9% | 3.33 | 1.99 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 6 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.3% | 23.3% | -7.0% | 0.0% | 1.08 | 4.67 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 6 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 16.3% | 23.3% | -7.0% | 0.0% | 1.08 | 5.02 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | 30 | 15 | 97 | 390 | 112 | 27 | 7 | 50% | 3.2 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 3.06 | 4.18 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | 30 | 15 | 97 | 390 | 112 | 27 | 7 | 50% | 3.2 | 28.7% | 6.9% | 21.8% | 1.8% | 3.06 | 2.56 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 12 | 83 | 342 | 93 | 28 | 7 | 43% | 3.0 | 24.6% | 8.5% | 16.1% | 2.3% | 3.90 | 3.35 | +1.6 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 28 | 12 | 83 | 342 | 93 | 28 | 7 | 43% | 3.0 | 27.2% | 8.2% | 19.0% | 2.0% | 3.90 | 2.97 | +2.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 9 | 59 | 259 | 49 | 29 | 10 | 25% | 1.6 | 18.2% | 11.5% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.81 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 9 | 59 | 259 | 49 | 29 | 10 | 25% | 1.6 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 3.81 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 1 | 69 | 308 | 52 | 29 | 7 | 2% | 1.2 | 16.1% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 5.90 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 55 | 1 | 69 | 308 | 52 | 29 | 7 | 2% | 1.2 | 16.9% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 2.3% | 5.90 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 63 | 260 | 67 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 7.4% | 17.3% | 2.1% | 2.56 | 3.08 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 59 | 0 | 63 | 260 | 67 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.8% | 7.3% | 18.5% | 1.9% | 2.56 | 2.91 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 0 | 50 | 244 | 45 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.26 | 5.48 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 3 levels | 51 | 0 | 50 | 244 | 45 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 12.7% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 6.26 | 5.74 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | KC | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 44 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.89 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | KC | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 39 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.5% | 11.8% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 5.15 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | KC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 193 | 34 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 12.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.42 | 5.60 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | KC | 40 | 0 | 42 | 176 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.71 | 5.90 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | KC | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 37 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.5% | 11.8% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 5.15 | 5.32 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | KC | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 32 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.6% | 12.2% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 5.42 | 5.60 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | KC | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.71 | 5.90 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 284 | 12 | 339 | 1463 | 276 | 149 | 50 | 4% | 1.2 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 4.68 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 168 | 7 | 200 | 862 | 163 | 88 | 29 | 4% | 1.2 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 276 | 40 | 457 | 1961 | 402 | 193 | 56 | 14% | 1.7 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 4.18 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 121 | 18 | 200 | 859 | 176 | 85 | 24 | 14% | 1.7 | 20.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sam Long (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.06 | 19.3% | 11.3% | 3.2% | — | 5.59 | 17.7% | 5.5% | 137 | +0.53 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 76 |
| Phil Coke L 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 76 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 73 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 244 | 72 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 71 |
| Craig Breslow L 2029 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 69 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 69 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 68 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.09 | 15.5% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .382 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 183 | 68 |
| Jake McGee L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 20.7% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .316 | 3.48 | 25.6% | 21.2% | 121 | -0.56 | 1.52 | 350 | 68 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2025 · 5.93 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.93 | 17.1% | 15.7% | 4.2% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 153 | 68 |
| James Jones L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.08 | 21.9% | 13.0% | 2.1% | .230 | 4.72 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 35 | +0.64 | 3.58 | 127 | 68 |
| Adam Loewen L 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.90 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 1.7% | .287 | 3.58 | 23.2% | 7.3% | 98 | -0.32 | 2.96 | 176 | 67 |
| Brian Duensing L 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 11.5% | 8.1% | 2.4% | .252 | 3.70 | 20.2% | 11.8% | 137 | -0.76 | 2.59 | 198 | 67 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.87 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 66 |
| Kraig Sitton L 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.04 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 166 | 65 |
| Scott Alexander L 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.82 | 17.3% | 15.4% | 4.1% | .212 | 3.18 | 14.5% | 11.1% | 81 | -2.64 | 2.90 | 414 | 65 |
| Tony Watson L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.22 | 21.3% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .227 | 3.50 | 21.4% | 16.9% | 187 | -0.72 | 2.22 | 405 | 64 |
| Chris Narveson L 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 63 |
| Josh Outman L 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.70 | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | .323 | 5.71 | 12.8% | -1.0% | 86 | +1.01 | 4.70 | 106 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 18.1% | 12.0% | 1.39 | 5.26 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |