Drew VerHagen
P
St. Louis Cardinals
+0.3
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'6" / 230 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.21
FIP4.35
xFIP5.07
SIERA4.24
K%23.1%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.0%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†5555
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p8430.6%
K%
p5122.4%
xwOBA vs
p540.308
SL+8.6
CH+2.6
CT-4.9
FB-5.7
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 40 | 0 | 61 | 248 | 39 | 25 | 2 | 14.1% | 10.6% | 0.5% | 2.82 | 3.51 | +1.0 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 20 | 0 | 20 | 93 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 11.1% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 7.32 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 43 | 21 | 132 | 575 | 94 | 50 | 17 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 51 | 7 | 89 | 360 | 104 | 29 | 6 | 27.2% | 8.2% | 1.8% | 3.54 | 2.81 | +2.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 34 | 15 | 112 | 494 | 102 | 35 | 14 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 5.14 | 4.14 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 24 | 4 | 29 | 137 | 26 | 16 | 5 | 17.0% | 12.3% | 4.5% | 5.22 | 5.67 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 61 | 0 | 62 | 272 | 61 | 24 | 9 | 22.4% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.06 | 4.19 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | STL | 53 | — | 53 | 224 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.41 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | STL | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | STL | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 273 | 47 | 504 | 2179 | 410 | 191 | 59 | 18.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.10 | +6.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 19 | 200 | 864 | 163 | 76 | 23 | 18.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew VerHagen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.65 | 22.0% | 12.2% | 96 | +0.24 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 87 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 86 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 82 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 82 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 81 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 81 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 80 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 79 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 78 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 78 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 77 |
| Jesse Chavez R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.04 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 3.5% | .303 | 3.25 | 25.5% | 17.9% | 140 | -0.79 | 2.03 | 804 | 76 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 75 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 75 |
| Josh Lowey R 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.45 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 426 | 74 |
| Brandon McCarthy R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.94 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | .332 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 248 | 73 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 73 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | .246 | 3.43 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | -0.03 | 2.00 | 380 | 73 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.31 | 2.15 | 488 | 73 |
| Merrill Kelly R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.14 | 21.0% | 6.3% | 3.7% | .271 | 3.76 | 22.3% | 15.9% | 184 | -0.38 | 3.61 | 1,008 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.