Connor Schultz — OGILVIE

Connor Schultz P Knoxville Smokies

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.8 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.25

FIP4.25

K%17.9%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	2	47	182	50	8	4	14%	3.4	19.7%	5.3%	14.3%	3.2%	1.91	3.88	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	2	47	182	50	8	4	14%	3.4	19.7%	5.3%	14.3%	3.2%	1.91	3.88	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	2	47	182	50	8	4	14%	3.4	27.5%	4.4%	23.1%	2.2%	1.91	2.59	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	13	89	375	89	21	7	48%	3.3	18.5%	6.4%	12.1%	2.2%	3.53	3.53	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	13	89	375	89	21	7	48%	3.3	18.5%	6.4%	12.1%	2.2%	3.53	3.53	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	13	89	375	89	21	7	48%	3.3	23.7%	5.6%	18.1%	1.9%	3.53	2.83	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	19	16	72	320	80	29	9	84%	3.8	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	3.4%	4.65	4.74	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	19	16	72	320	80	29	9	84%	3.8	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	3.4%	4.65	4.74	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	ROK RAW	CHC	3	3	8	40	13	1	1	100%	2.8	32.5%	2.5%	30.0%	2.5%	5.40	2.04	—
2026	27	AA RAW	CHC	16	13	63	280	67	28	8	81%	4.0	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	2.9%	4.55	3.91	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CHC	1	1	6	25	4	1	1	100%	5.9	17.9%	5.9%	12.0%	2.8%	4.25	4.25	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	78	345	84	30	10	—	—	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	2.8%	4.62	4.70	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	68	287	52	18	8	100%	6.2	18.3%	6.4%	11.9%	2.9%	4.30	4.34	+0.4
2028	29	MLB MLE	CHC	11	11	65	274	50	19	8	100%	5.9	18.4%	6.8%	11.6%	3.1%	4.40	4.47	+0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	CHC	4	4	26	110	20	7	3	100%	6.5	18.3%	6.4%	11.9%	2.8%	4.24	4.28	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	CHC	6	6	36	152	28	10	4	100%	6.0	18.4%	6.8%	11.6%	2.9%	4.34	4.41	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	10	62	261	48	17	8	100%	6.2	18.4%	6.7%	11.7%	2.9%	4.30	3.97	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	156	55	26	100%	6.0	18.4%	6.7%	11.7%	2.9%	4.30	3.97	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		60	31	208	877	167	69	25	52%	3.5	19.1%	7.9%	11.2%	2.8%	3.55	4.05	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	30	200	843	161	66	24	52%	3.5	19.1%	7.9%	11.2%	2.8%	3.55	4.05	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Schultz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.25	17.9%	5.9%	2.8%	—	4.40	18.4%	11.8%	133	+0.15	—	—	—
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	79
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	79
Michael Bowden R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	28	SP-	3.21	17.3%	6.4%	1.4%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	141	78
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	78
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	78
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	78
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	77
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	77
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	77
Collin Lowe R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	15.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.292	3.11	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.51	3.11	165	76
Chase Whitley R 2016 · 4.10 FIP	27	SP-	4.10	19.5%	7.0%	3.2%	.217	3.22	18.0%	11.8%	81	-0.88	3.09	159	76
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	76
Vance Worley R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SW	3.92	15.2%	5.2%	2.6%	.296	4.72	13.4%	4.9%	220	+0.80	3.92	411	76
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	76
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	76
Jake Brigham R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	27	SW	3.09	15.0%	6.5%	0.8%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	108	75
Parker Curry R 2019 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	17.8%	5.4%	4.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	256	75
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	12.6%	5.3%	3.0%	.289	3.81	15.5%	7.0%	329	-0.56	3.13	593	74
Kevin Miranda R 2023 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP-	3.76	11.5%	5.7%	1.7%	.293	5.48	13.4%	5.0%	67	+1.72	3.76	153	74
Devin Burke R 2016 · 4.20 FIP	25	SP-	4.20	13.7%	4.9%	3.0%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	68	18.2%	6.4%	1.13	4.31
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97