Connor Schultz
P
Knoxville Smokies
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 98
ERA4.28
FIP4.28
K%17.9%
BB%6.2%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 108 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 2 | 47 | 182 | 50 | 8 | 4 | 14% | 3.4 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 14.3% | 3.5% | 1.91 | 4.05 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 2 | 47 | 182 | 50 | 8 | 4 | 14% | 3.4 | 27.5% | 4.4% | 23.1% | 2.2% | 1.91 | 2.59 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 13 | 89 | 375 | 89 | 21 | 7 | 48% | 3.3 | 18.5% | 6.4% | 12.1% | 2.0% | 3.53 | 3.47 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 13 | 89 | 375 | 89 | 21 | 7 | 48% | 3.3 | 23.7% | 5.6% | 18.1% | 1.9% | 3.53 | 2.83 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 12 | 11 | 43 | 191 | 53 | 16 | 6 | 92% | 3.6 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 4.0% | 5.02 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 49 | 17 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CHC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 108 | 465 | 102 | 33 | 14 | — | — | 21.9% | 7.1% | 14.8% | 2.9% | 4.58 | 4.51 | +1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.9% | 6.2% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 3.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 52 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 50 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 10 | 10 | 61 | 257 | 47 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 28 | 11 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 7.1% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 7 | 7 | 41 | 173 | 32 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.56 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 17 | 17 | 104 | 440 | 81 | 32 | 14 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.15 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 155 | 61 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.46 | 4.15 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 53 | 26 | 179 | 748 | 146 | 55 | 22 | 49% | 3.4 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 3.46 | 3.96 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 29 | 200 | 834 | 163 | 61 | 24 | 49% | 3.4 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 3.46 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Schultz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.50 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 194 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 81 |
| Michael Bowden R 2027 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.25 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 141 | 79 |
| Evan McKendry R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.14 | 14.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 474 | 79 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 78 |
| Jake Brigham R 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.15 | 15.0% | 6.5% | 0.9% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 108 | 77 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 77 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2029 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 77 |
| Kris Medlen R 2028 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 76 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.52 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 1.8% | .286 | 4.03 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.51 | 3.52 | 248 | 76 |
| Chase Whitley R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.04 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 3.1% | .217 | 3.24 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.11 | 159 | 76 |
| Vance Worley R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.01 | 15.2% | 5.2% | 2.8% | .296 | 4.76 | 13.4% | 4.9% | 220 | +0.75 | 4.01 | 411 | 76 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 76 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 76 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 75 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 75 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 75 |
| Garrett Stallings R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.56 | 15.6% | 5.4% | 2.0% | .289 | 3.20 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 64 | -0.36 | 3.20 | 595 | 74 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.54 | 12.6% | 5.3% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.95 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 329 | -0.59 | 3.16 | 593 | 74 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 74 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 18.2% | 6.9% | 1.15 | 4.39 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |