Connor Schultz
P
Knoxville Smokies
+0.7
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 225 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.19
FIP4.19
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%13.5%
IP75
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 14 | 2 | 47 | 182 | 50 | 8 | 4 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 1.91 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 27 | 13 | 89 | 375 | 89 | 21 | 7 | 18.5% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 3.53 | 3.52 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.40 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CHC | 14 | 14 | 75 | 318 | 67 | 25 | 9 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.19 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 79 | 333 | 70 | 27 | 9 | 21.2% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 4.01 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 67 | 25 | 9 | 21.4% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.23 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 72 | 306 | 65 | 25 | 9 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.28 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 63 | 24 | 9 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 68 | 286 | 60 | 24 | 9 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.42 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 23 | 9 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 54 | 23 | 8 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.61 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 50 | 22 | 8 | 20.2% | 8.9% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 56 | — | 56 | 235 | 46 | 22 | 8 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | CHC | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 43 | 21 | 8 | 19.4% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.89 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 16 | 140 | 572 | 108 | 36 | 14 | 18.9% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 3.03 | 3.63 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 23 | 200 | 819 | 155 | 52 | 20 | 18.9% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 3.03 | 3.63 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Schultz (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.19 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 2.8% | — | 4.29 | 21.4% | 13.3% | 217 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 91 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 91 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 90 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.75 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.4% | .246 | 3.68 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.07 | 3.25 | 160 | 89 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 89 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 89 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 89 |
| Pedro Beato R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.46 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.6% | .276 | 3.94 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 192 | +0.48 | 3.46 | 295 | 87 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.35 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .359 | 5.13 | 12.8% | 2.8% | 47 | +1.78 | 3.35 | 108 | 87 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 1.5% | .294 | 4.05 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 106 | +0.87 | 3.18 | 253 | 87 |
| Anthony Bass R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .300 | 3.43 | 21.6% | 14.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 2.83 | 432 | 86 |
| Conor Mullee R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.28 | 17.7% | 7.2% | 1.4% | .290 | 2.64 | 24.2% | 16.3% | 55 | -0.64 | 2.17 | 110 | 86 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 86 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .311 | 3.46 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | +0.03 | 3.18 | 157 | 86 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 86 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.05 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 3.3% | .174 | 3.39 | 24.7% | 16.0% | 206 | -0.66 | 2.27 | 445 | 85 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.65 | 20.1% | 6.6% | 2.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 157 | 85 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 84 |
| Johnny Magliozzi R 2025 · 3.23 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.23 | 17.1% | 5.9% | 1.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 131 | 84 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $4M | $10M | +$6M | ||