Casey Sadler
P
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 36
RHP
6'3" / 223 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117107vR 98
ERA4.26
FIP4.29
K%22.4%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.1%
ROS IP51
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p3923.7%
K%
p6825.5%
xwOBA vs
p900.243
FB+6.4
SL+4.3
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 86 | 353 | 53 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 12.6% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.19 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 86 | 353 | 53 | 26 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.29 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 7 | 79 | 326 | 66 | 11 | 5 | 27% | 3.0 | 15.2% | 3.4% | 11.8% | 2.0% | 4.00 | 3.34 | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 7 | 79 | 326 | 66 | 11 | 5 | 27% | 3.0 | 20.2% | 3.4% | 16.9% | 1.5% | 4.00 | 2.67 | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 8 | 81 | 360 | 64 | 28 | 7 | 28% | 2.8 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 2.1% | 3.65 | 3.90 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 8 | 81 | 360 | 64 | 28 | 7 | 28% | 2.8 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 1.9% | 3.65 | 3.68 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 5 | 85 | 356 | 84 | 17 | 11 | 11% | 1.8 | 21.8% | 4.9% | 16.9% | 3.1% | 2.65 | 3.58 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 5 | 85 | 356 | 84 | 17 | 11 | 11% | 1.8 | 23.6% | 4.8% | 18.8% | 3.1% | 2.65 | 3.41 | +1.7 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 17 | 0 | 19 | 86 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 5.12 | 4.82 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 17 | 0 | 19 | 86 | 21 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 5.12 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 44 | 156 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.5% | 6.9% | 18.6% | 0.7% | 0.61 | 2.22 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 44 | 156 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 6.4% | 21.2% | 0.6% | 0.61 | 2.12 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 1 | 19 | 88 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 5% | 0.8 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 3.5% | 7.71 | 4.41 | — |
| 2023 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 1 | 19 | 88 | 21 | 6 | 4 | 5% | 0.8 | 23.9% | 6.8% | 17.0% | 4.5% | 7.71 | 4.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 48 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 48 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | SEA | 42 | 0 | 44 | 187 | 40 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.3% | 9.9% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.69 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 95 | 2 | 116 | 471 | 97 | 37 | 10 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.7% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 2.43 | 3.53 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 165 | 3 | 200 | 813 | 168 | 64 | 17 | 2% | 1.2 | 20.7% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 2.43 | 3.53 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 200 | 35 | 413 | 1725 | 307 | 114 | 48 | 18% | 2.1 | 17.8% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 3.55 | 3.95 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 97 | 17 | 200 | 835 | 149 | 55 | 23 | 18% | 2.1 | 17.8% | 6.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 3.55 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Casey Sadler (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.29 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.69 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 44 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 83 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 82 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 77 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 76 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.21 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .341 | 7.33 | 8.3% | -0.9% | 22 | +4.12 | 3.21 | 209 | 75 |
| Jim Johnson R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 74 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 74 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 73 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 73 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 72 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.28 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 3.2% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 244 | 71 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 71 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.70 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .278 | 4.06 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.36 | 3.51 | 219 | 71 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.10 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.82 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.72 | 3.10 | 174 | 69 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 69 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 69 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 69 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 35 | SW | 5.26 | 25.0% | 11.2% | 5.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 212 | 68 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.24 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 326 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 48 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.15 | 4.38 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |