Shawn Dubin
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 164 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION7 act + 56 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 107
ERA4.61
FIP4.72
K%20.9%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%10.0%
ROS IP56
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p1720.7%
K%
p3019.3%
xwOBA vs
p610.301
FB (50%)
SI (16%)
CU (15%)
CH-0.9 (15%)
CT-1.4 (3%)
SL-1.6 (17%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 111 | 466 | 151 | 46 | 3 | 76% | 4.4 | 24.3% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 1.0% | 3.58 | 3.04 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 19 | 111 | 466 | 151 | 46 | 3 | 76% | 4.4 | 32.4% | 9.9% | 22.5% | 0.6% | 3.58 | 1.97 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | 16 | 8 | 50 | 195 | 69 | 19 | 4 | 50% | 3.1 | 31.1% | 10.2% | 20.9% | 2.6% | 3.44 | 3.19 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | 16 | 8 | 50 | 195 | 69 | 19 | 4 | 50% | 3.1 | 35.4% | 9.7% | 25.6% | 2.1% | 3.44 | 2.52 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 14 | 60 | 257 | 82 | 32 | 3 | 56% | 2.4 | 28.3% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 1.6% | 4.62 | 3.29 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 14 | 60 | 257 | 82 | 32 | 3 | 56% | 2.4 | 31.9% | 12.5% | 19.5% | 1.2% | 4.62 | 2.62 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 13 | 65 | 300 | 71 | 40 | 8 | 57% | 2.8 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 6.68 | 5.35 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 13 | 65 | 300 | 71 | 40 | 8 | 57% | 2.8 | 23.7% | 13.3% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 6.68 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 2 | 55 | 249 | 62 | 31 | 3 | 5% | 1.3 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 1.4% | 4.07 | 3.44 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 2 | 55 | 249 | 62 | 31 | 3 | 5% | 1.3 | 24.9% | 12.4% | 12.4% | 1.2% | 4.07 | 3.24 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 44 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.3% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 3.8% | 4.36 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 44 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 7.1% | 16.9% | 3.3% | 4.36 | 3.77 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Reno Aces | 8 | 1 | 7 | 41 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 12% | 0.9 | — | — | — | — | 12.27 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ARI | 54 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 50 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ARI | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 64 | 278 | 57 | 30 | 7 | — | — | 20.4% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 5.49 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 6 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 20.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 45 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 46 | 0 | 48 | 205 | 41 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 42 | 0 | 44 | 188 | 36 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 5.18 | 5.36 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 24 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 5.18 | 5.36 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 142 | 3 | 170 | 739 | 156 | 79 | 22 | 2% | 1.2 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.29 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 4 | 200 | 871 | 184 | 93 | 26 | 2% | 1.2 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 178 | 57 | 391 | 1691 | 409 | 203 | 35 | 32% | 2.2 | 24.2% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 2.1% | 4.55 | 3.72 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 29 | 200 | 864 | 209 | 104 | 18 | 32% | 2.2 | 24.2% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 2.1% | 4.55 | 3.72 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shawn Dubin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 20.9% | 10.9% | 3.0% | — | 5.12 | 19.8% | 8.5% | 145 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 74 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 74 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 73 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 72 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 72 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 72 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.66 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | .245 | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.10 | 1.74 | 195 | 71 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 71 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 70 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 69 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 69 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.97 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .301 | 4.06 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | +0.09 | 1.74 | 468 | 69 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 68 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 68 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.76 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.91 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 536 | 68 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 68 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 68 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 68 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 20.1% | 11.2% | 1.27 | 4.86 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |