Shawn Dubin
P
Reno Aces
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 164 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.52
FIP4.50
xFIP4.23
SIERA3.95
K%21.8%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%11.9%
IP32
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4040
CMD4545
K†5050
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p1720.7%
K%
p3019.3%
xwOBA vs
p610.301
FB (50%)
SI (16%)
CU (15%)
CH-0.9 (15%)
CT-1.4 (3%)
SL-1.6 (17%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | A+ | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 25 | 19 | 111 | 466 | 151 | 46 | 3 | 24.3% | 11.5% | 0.9% | 3.58 | 3.02 | +2.9 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Skeeters | 16 | 8 | 50 | 195 | 69 | 19 | 4 | 31.1% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 3.44 | 3.11 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | 25 | 14 | 60 | 257 | 82 | 32 | 3 | 28.3% | 13.5% | 1.5% | 4.62 | 3.22 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | 23 | 13 | 65 | 300 | 71 | 40 | 8 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 3.2% | 6.68 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Houston Astros | 41 | 2 | 55 | 249 | 62 | 31 | 3 | 23.7% | 12.6% | 1.4% | 4.07 | 3.47 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 40 | 0 | 43 | 183 | 44 | 13 | 6 | 19.3% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 4.36 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Reno Aces | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 18.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ARI | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 30 | 15 | 4 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 34 | 149 | 32 | 16 | 4 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 5.41 | 4.33 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 21.3% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.65 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 30 | — | 30 | 127 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.71 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 172 | 56 | 386 | 1662 | 404 | 200 | 33 | 24.3% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 4.48 | 3.66 | +7.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 89 | 29 | 200 | 861 | 209 | 104 | 17 | 24.3% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 4.48 | 3.66 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shawn Dubin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.77 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 90 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 84 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 81 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 79 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 78 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 77 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 77 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 76 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 76 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 75 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 75 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 74 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 74 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 74 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 74 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 73 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2025 · 4.10 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.10 | 21.2% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 253 | 73 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.16 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .373 | 3.54 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 93 | -1.62 | 3.45 | 170 | 73 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 73 |
| Bryan Morris R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.68 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.