Shawn Dubin

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 31 RHP 6'0" / 164 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MIX2 levels	41	2	55	4.07	3.24	24.9%	12.4%	0.9	K 23.7% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.51
2025	29	MIX3 levels	40	0	43	4.36	3.77	24.0%	7.1%	0.4	K 19.3% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.60
2026	30	AAAWSH	6	1	5	10.12	2.91	17.2%	10.3%	—	K 17.2% · BB 10.3% · FIP 2.95
2027PROJ	31	MLBWSH	5	0	5	4.58	4.65	20.8%	10.0%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	32	MLBWSH	10	0	11	4.74	4.87	20.3%	10.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ55% MLB	33	MLBWSH	10	0	10	4.94	5.11	19.7%	10.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs61

FB Velo47

K%30

CompsYoanner Negrin (age 31) · Dustin Molleken (age 31) · Felipe Arredondo (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.58

FIP4.65

K%20.8%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP54

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p3019.3%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	111	466	151	46	3	76%	4.4	24.3%	11.5%	12.7%	0.9%	3.58	3.02	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	111	466	151	46	3	76%	4.4	32.4%	9.9%	22.5%	0.6%	3.58	1.97	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Skeeters	16	8	50	195	69	19	4	50%	3.1	31.1%	10.2%	20.9%	2.4%	3.44	3.09	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Skeeters	16	8	50	195	69	19	4	50%	3.1	35.4%	9.7%	25.6%	2.1%	3.44	2.52	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	14	60	257	82	32	3	56%	2.4	28.3%	13.5%	14.8%	1.4%	4.62	3.21	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	14	60	257	82	32	3	56%	2.4	31.9%	12.5%	19.5%	1.2%	4.62	2.62	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	13	65	300	71	40	8	57%	2.8	20.0%	12.9%	7.1%	3.3%	6.68	4.87	+0.4
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	13	65	300	71	40	8	57%	2.8	23.7%	13.3%	10.3%	2.7%	6.68	4.37	+0.8
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	2	55	249	62	31	3	5%	1.3	23.7%	12.6%	11.1%	1.5%	4.07	3.51	+0.7
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	2	55	249	62	31	3	5%	1.3	23.7%	12.6%	11.1%	1.5%	4.07	3.51	+0.7
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	2	55	249	62	31	3	5%	1.3	24.9%	12.4%	12.4%	1.2%	4.07	3.24	+0.9
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	43	183	44	13	6	0%	1.1	19.3%	7.6%	11.7%	4.0%	4.36	4.60	-0.0
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	43	183	44	13	6	0%	1.1	19.3%	7.6%	11.7%	4.0%	4.36	4.60	-0.0
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	43	183	44	13	6	0%	1.1	24.0%	7.1%	16.9%	3.3%	4.36	3.77	+0.4
2026	30	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	6	1	5	29	5	3	0	17%	0.9	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.0%	10.12	2.95	—
2026	30	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	6	1	5	29	5	3	0	17%	0.9	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.0%	10.12	2.95	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	6	1	5	29	5	3	0	17%	0.9	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.0%	10.12	2.91	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			64	3	88	394	88	40	10	5%	1.4	22.3%	10.2%	12.2%	2.5%	4.81	3.94	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	WSH	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.0%	10.8%	3.0%	4.58	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	WSH	30	0	31	131	27	13	4	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	3.3%	4.74	4.87	-0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	WSH	18	0	19	79	15	8	3	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	3.5%	4.94	5.11	-0.1
2030	34	MLB MLE	WSH	11	0	11	47	9	5	2	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.1%	7.8%	3.8%	5.18	5.37	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	WSH	10	0	11	46	9	5	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.3%	10.0%	3.3%	4.74	4.87	-0.0
2029	33	MLB CTX	WSH	10	0	10	42	8	5	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	3.5%	4.94	5.11	-0.1
2030	34	MLB CTX	WSH	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.1%	7.8%	3.8%	5.18	5.37	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	3	115	509	111	52	14	3%	1.3	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.83	4.07	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		156	5	200	883	193	90	24	3%	1.3	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.83	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		176	57	389	1679	406	195	34	32%	2.2	24.2%	11.6%	12.5%	2.0%	4.48	3.63	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	29	200	863	208	100	17	32%	2.2	24.2%	11.6%	12.5%	2.0%	4.48	3.63	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 5 IPFIP 2.95 → 3.03 (+0.07)K% 17.2% → 14.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.24%	—	×0.860	14.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.34%	—	×0.900	9.31%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.95 → 3.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 9 IPFIP -0.20 → 0.28 (+0.48)K% 43.8% → 37.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.75%	—	×0.860	37.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.12%	—	×0.900	2.81%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.961	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP -0.20 → 0.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 10 IPFIP 1.99 → 2.21 (+0.22)K% 31.0% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.95%	—	×0.860	26.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.90%	—	×0.900	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.903	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.99 → 2.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 56 IPFIP 4.44 → 4.87 (+0.43)K% 23.3% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.26%	—	×0.860	20.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.34%	—	×0.900	12.91%
HR / BF /BF	2.71%	÷0.896	×1.100	3.33%

Result: FIP 4.44 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 58 IPFIP 2.68 → 3.21 (+0.54)K% 32.1% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.13%	—	×0.880	28.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.85%	—	×1.050	13.49%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷0.917	×1.100	1.45%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 2.68 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASugar Land Skeeters · 50 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.09 (+0.62)K% 35.4% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.38%	—	×0.880	31.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.74%	—	×1.050	10.23%
HR / BF /BF	2.05%	÷0.935	×1.100	2.41%

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.09, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fayetteville Woodpeckers · 99 IPFIP 2.10 → 3.02 (+0.92)K% 31.5% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.50%	—	×0.770	24.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.02%	—	×1.150	11.53%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷0.969	×1.250	0.92%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.10 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 12 IPFIP 0.76 → 1.85 (+1.08)K% 40.4% → 29.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.43%	—	×0.740	29.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.51%	—	×1.180	10.04%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.964	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 93).

Result: FIP 0.76 → 1.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shawn Dubin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	20.8%	10.0%	3.0%	—	5.03	19.8%	9.3%	61	+0.38	—	—	—
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	75
Dustin Molleken R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	31	SU	4.04	19.6%	12.1%	1.9%	.276	3.38	24.3%	11.9%	16	-0.66	3.38	129	73
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	72
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	70
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	70
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	70
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	70
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	70
Clay Hensley R 2011 · 4.78 FIP	31	SW	4.78	15.5%	9.8%	3.2%	.249	4.37	17.9%	5.9%	51	-0.41	2.58	517	69
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	68
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	67
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	67
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	67
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	2.92	432	66
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	66
Grant Black R 2023 · 5.49 FIP	29	SU	5.49	15.9%	11.3%	4.2%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	215	66
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	66
Neil Wagner R 2016 · 4.05 FIP	32	SU	4.05	19.8%	12.3%	1.9%	.360	3.11	20.7%	12.1%	54	-0.94	3.11	135	66
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	65
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	34	21.2%	10.2%	1.13	4.77
Scott Service ('04)	2.1	46	22.2%	9.9%	1.23	5.04
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*