Shawn Dubin — OGILVIE

Shawn Dubin P Rochester Red Wings

Age 30 RHP 6'0" / 164 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 56 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.61

FIP4.71

K%20.8%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%10.2%

ROS IP56

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p1720.7%

p3019.3%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

FB (50%)

SI (16%)

CU (15%)

CH-0.9 (15%)

CT-1.4 (3%)

SL-1.6 (17%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	111	466	151	46	3	76%	4.4	24.3%	11.5%	12.7%	0.9%	3.58	3.02	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	111	466	151	46	3	76%	4.4	32.4%	9.9%	22.5%	0.6%	3.58	1.97	—
2021	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Skeeters	16	8	50	195	69	19	4	50%	3.1	31.1%	10.2%	20.9%	2.4%	3.44	3.09	—
2021	25	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Skeeters	16	8	50	195	69	19	4	50%	3.1	35.4%	9.7%	25.6%	2.1%	3.44	2.52	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	14	60	257	82	32	3	56%	2.4	28.3%	13.5%	14.8%	1.4%	4.62	3.21	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	14	60	257	82	32	3	56%	2.4	31.9%	12.5%	19.5%	1.2%	4.62	2.62	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	13	65	300	71	40	8	57%	2.8	19.3%	12.9%	6.4%	3.3%	6.68	4.93	-0.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	13	65	300	71	40	8	57%	2.8	19.3%	12.9%	6.4%	3.3%	6.68	4.93	-0.0
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	13	65	300	71	40	8	57%	2.8	23.7%	13.3%	10.3%	2.7%	6.68	4.37	+0.4
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	2	55	249	62	31	3	5%	1.3	23.7%	12.6%	11.1%	1.5%	4.07	3.51	+0.7
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	2	55	249	62	31	3	5%	1.3	23.7%	12.6%	11.1%	1.5%	4.07	3.51	+0.7
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	2	55	249	62	31	3	5%	1.3	24.9%	12.4%	12.4%	1.2%	4.07	3.24	+0.9
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	43	183	44	13	6	0%	1.1	19.3%	7.6%	11.7%	4.0%	4.36	4.60	-0.0
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	43	183	44	13	6	0%	1.1	19.3%	7.6%	11.7%	4.0%	4.36	4.60	-0.0
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	43	183	44	13	6	0%	1.1	24.0%	7.1%	16.9%	3.3%	4.36	3.77	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			64	3	88	394	88	40	10	5%	1.4	22.3%	10.2%	12.2%	2.5%	4.81	3.94	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	6	1	5	29	5	3	0	17%	0.9	—	—	—	—	10.12	—	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	6	1	5	29	5	3	0	17%	0.9	—	—	—	—	10.12	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	WSH	6	1	5	29	5	3	0	17%	0.9	17.2%	10.3%	6.9%	0.0%	10.12	2.95	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	WSH	50	0	52	221	45	24	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	10.9%	9.5%	3.2%	4.77	4.90	-0.2
2028	32	MLB MLE	WSH	46	0	48	205	40	23	7	0%	1.1	19.8%	11.1%	8.6%	3.4%	4.96	5.11	-0.3
2029	33	MLB MLE	WSH	42	0	44	188	36	22	7	0%	1.1	19.1%	11.5%	7.6%	3.7%	5.18	5.35	-0.4
2027	31	MLB CTX	WSH	18	0	19	80	16	9	3	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.9%	9.5%	3.2%	4.77	4.90	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	WSH	26	0	27	114	23	13	4	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.1%	8.6%	3.4%	4.96	5.11	-0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	WSH	29	0	30	127	24	15	5	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.5%	7.6%	3.7%	5.18	5.35	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		136	3	164	715	151	76	21	2%	1.2	21.1%	10.6%	10.5%	3.0%	4.90	4.29	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		166	4	200	872	184	93	26	2%	1.2	21.1%	10.6%	10.5%	3.0%	4.90	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		176	57	389	1679	404	195	34	32%	2.2	24.0%	11.6%	12.4%	2.0%	4.48	3.64	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	29	200	863	207	100	17	32%	2.2	24.0%	11.6%	12.4%	2.0%	4.48	3.64	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shawn Dubin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	20.8%	10.7%	3.0%	—	5.11	19.8%	8.6%	145	+0.40	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	75
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	74
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	74
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	72
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	72
Mike Broadway R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	18.3%	10.2%	3.4%	.245	4.65	23.0%	12.4%	49	-0.08	1.74	195	71
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	71
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	71
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	70
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	70
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	69
Daniel Hudson R 2017 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	4.01	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.06	1.68	468	69
Hector Velázquez R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	30	SW	4.82	19.6%	12.3%	3.3%	.292	3.81	19.2%	10.9%	25	-1.01	2.75	536	69
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	69
Josh Lindblom R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	30	SW	3.91	18.7%	5.5%	3.1%	.333	3.50	27.2%	18.8%	45	-0.41	3.50	348	68
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	68
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	68
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	68
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	68
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	20.1%	11.0%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99