Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 0 | 16 | 81 | 10 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 12.3% | 23.5% | -11.1% | 0.0% | 7.71 | 5.03 | — |
| 2015 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 12 | 0 | 16 | 81 | 10 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 12.3% | 23.5% | -11.1% | 0.0% | 7.71 | 5.37 | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 70 | 281 | 61 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 17.2% | 11.1% | 6.1% | 0.5% | 2.82 | 3.33 | — |
| 2017 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 70 | 281 | 61 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 0.4% | 2.82 | 2.74 | — |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 64 | 0 | 77 | 316 | 80 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 13.7% | 1.1% | 2.10 | 2.91 | +1.8 |
| 2018 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 64 | 0 | 77 | 316 | 80 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 17.1% | 1.3% | 2.10 | 2.71 | +2.0 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 5 | 41 | 202 | 60 | 27 | 8 | 14% | 1.1 | 25.6% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 4.8% | 5.49 | 5.40 | -0.4 |
| 2019 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 5 | 41 | 202 | 60 | 27 | 8 | 14% | 1.1 | 29.7% | 13.4% | 16.3% | 4.0% | 5.49 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 10 | 0 | 13 | 62 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.6% | 16.1% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 4.72 | 3.24 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 10 | 0 | 13 | 62 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.6% | 16.1% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 4.72 | 3.25 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 9 | 44 | 194 | 48 | 21 | 8 | 56% | 2.8 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.10 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 9 | 44 | 194 | 48 | 21 | 8 | 56% | 2.8 | 24.7% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 4.1% | 4.47 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 11 | 4 | 23 | 114 | 19 | 18 | 6 | 36% | 2.1 | 14.7% | 16.6% | -1.9% | 7.1% | 8.22 | 7.89 | — |
| 2023 | 33 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 11 | 4 | 23 | 114 | 19 | 18 | 6 | 36% | 2.1 | 16.7% | 15.8% | 0.9% | 5.3% | 8.22 | 7.19 | — |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 15 | 88 | 382 | 97 | 40 | 6 | 71% | 4.2 | 23.0% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 1.5% | 4.11 | 3.31 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 15 | 88 | 382 | 97 | 40 | 6 | 71% | 4.2 | 25.4% | 10.5% | 14.9% | 1.6% | 4.11 | 3.15 | +2.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 36 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 6 | 4 | 14 | 55 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 67% | 2.3 | 30.8% | 2.1% | 28.7% | 0.0% | 3.21 | 0.76 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | NYM | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 62 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.6% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 2.4% | 4.09 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 36 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 24.6% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 2.4% | 4.09 | 4.02 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 36 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 74 | 308 | 84 | 27 | 6 | — | — | 27.4% | 8.6% | 18.7% | 2.0% | 3.92 | 3.40 | +1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 36 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 24.6% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 2.4% | 4.09 | 3.64 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 52 | 24 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | NYM | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.87 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 37 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.4% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.45 | — |
| 2028 | 38 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.3% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.87 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 57 | 3 | 76 | 345 | 77 | 43 | 7 | 5% | 1.3 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 2.0% | 4.90 | 3.91 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 151 | 8 | 200 | 913 | 204 | 114 | 19 | 5% | 1.3 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 2.0% | 4.90 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 218 | 37 | 387 | 1687 | 361 | 192 | 35 | 17% | 1.8 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 4.05 | 3.89 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 19 | 200 | 872 | 186 | 99 | 18 | 17% | 1.8 | 21.4% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 4.05 | 3.89 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Robert Stock (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.02 | 24.6% | 10.1% | 2.4% | — | 4.64 | 22.9% | 11.9% | 97 | +0.62 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 66 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.35 | 23.9% | 10.9% | 1.6% | .222 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 349 | 66 |
| Jean Machi R 2025 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 65 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2028 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 65 |
| Manny Acosta R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 64 |
| Radhames Liz R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 64 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.25 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78 | 326 | 64 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.95 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 132 | 63 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.70 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .278 | 4.06 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 103 | +0.36 | 3.51 | 219 | 63 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 63 |
| Mark Lowe R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 62 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 61 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 61 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.21 | 18.0% | 7.6% | 1.2% | .341 | 7.33 | 8.3% | -0.9% | 22 | +4.12 | 3.21 | 209 | 61 |
| Luis Ayala R 2027 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 61 |
| Josh Lueke R 2024 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 61 |
| Jesse Hahn R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.51 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 1.5% | .347 | 5.90 | 19.1% | 2.3% | 22 | +2.39 | 2.19 | 426 | 60 |
| Salvador Valdez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.24 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .405 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 326 | 60 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.44 | 26.3% | 11.5% | 2.0% | .337 | 3.53 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 110 | +0.09 | 2.48 | 200 | 60 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.53 | 16.7% | 7.2% | 1.7% | .298 | 5.49 | 15.9% | 8.7% | 57 | +1.96 | 3.17 | 225 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 52 | 23.5% | 10.6% | 1.10 | 4.33 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |