Justin Armbruester
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
AA
peak 0.3 · 2029
2026 ROS PROJECTION18 act + 84 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136126vR 117
ERA5.18
FIP5.18
K%21.4%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%10.1%
ROS IP84
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 12% | 1.2 | 42.1% | 15.8% | 26.3% | 2.6% | 1.93 | 2.99 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 8 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 12% | 1.2 | 42.1% | 15.8% | 26.3% | 2.6% | 1.93 | 2.99 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 117 | 475 | 126 | 34 | 21 | 85% | 4.5 | 21.0% | 8.1% | 12.9% | 4.4% | 3.85 | 4.79 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 22 | 117 | 475 | 126 | 34 | 21 | 85% | 4.5 | 26.5% | 7.2% | 19.4% | 4.4% | 3.85 | 4.15 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 121 | 517 | 109 | 51 | 14 | 96% | 4.7 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 7.4% | 2.8% | 3.56 | 4.43 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 121 | 517 | 109 | 51 | 14 | 96% | 4.7 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 2.7% | 3.56 | 4.06 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 29 | 26 | 119 | 559 | 131 | 69 | 27 | 90% | 4.1 | 20.6% | 13.0% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 7.54 | 5.94 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 29 | 26 | 119 | 559 | 131 | 69 | 27 | 90% | 4.1 | 23.4% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 4.8% | 7.54 | 5.58 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 3 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 25.9% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.32 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 3 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.9 | 25.9% | 11.1% | 14.8% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.22 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | 17 | 0 | 18 | 67 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 1.53 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYM | 80 | 0 | 84 | 354 | 76 | 40 | 13 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | NYM | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.18 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 102 | 421 | 98 | 44 | 13 | — | — | 23.3% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.28 | +1.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 21.4% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 14 | 84 | 354 | 76 | 39 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 5.13 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 72 | 38 | 13 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 5.16 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 13 | 13 | 75 | 318 | 73 | 33 | 13 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 5.10 | 5.09 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 67 | 32 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 4.2% | 5.19 | 5.27 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | NYM | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 3.8% | 5.13 | 5.17 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 40 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 5.16 | 5.23 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 49 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.9% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 5.10 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 51 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 4.2% | 5.19 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 32 | 30 | 183 | 772 | 170 | 83 | 31 | 94% | 5.7 | 22.1% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 5.15 | 4.81 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 186 | 91 | 34 | 95% | 5.8 | 22.1% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 5.15 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 109 | 74 | 390 | 1683 | 353 | 178 | 66 | 68% | 3.6 | 21.0% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 4.68 | 4.83 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 38 | 200 | 862 | 181 | 91 | 34 | 68% | 3.6 | 21.0% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 3.9% | 4.68 | 4.83 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Armbruester (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 3.8% | — | 5.16 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 239 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 81 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 79 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 79 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.64 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 4.1% | .301 | 4.41 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | -0.23 | 4.11 | 563 | 79 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 77 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 75 |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.11 | 24.4% | 13.2% | 2.5% | .302 | 3.12 | 26.0% | 15.4% | 35 | -0.99 | 3.12 | 187 | 74 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 74 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 74 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.30 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .285 | 5.87 | 16.1% | 5.4% | 99 | +1.57 | 3.92 | 233 | 74 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.24 | 15.7% | 11.1% | 1.9% | .264 | 4.00 | 19.8% | 5.1% | 74 | -0.24 | 3.58 | 200 | 74 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 74 |
| Braden Shipley R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.2% | 8.9% | 4.3% | .326 | 5.29 | 20.4% | 5.3% | 83 | +0.26 | 3.64 | 728 | 73 |
| Shawn Dubin R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.35 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .292 | 3.91 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 79 | -1.44 | 3.04 | 341 | 73 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 72 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 72 |
| Ben Lively R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.82 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .312 | 3.15 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 77 | -1.67 | 3.15 | 1,049 | 72 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.18 | 20.1% | 13.0% | 2.1% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 378 | 72 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 71 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 79 | 21.8% | 11.0% | 1.52 | 5.15 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Trevor Cahill ('21) | 7 | 67 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 1.29 | 4.66 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Derek Holland ('21) | 7 | 92 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 1.59 | 5.12 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |