Justin Armbruester

Justin Armbruester P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 235 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 116

ERA5.24

FIP5.24

K%19.6%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	1	9	38	16	6	1	12%	1.2	42.1%	15.8%	26.3%	2.6%	1.93	2.99	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	1	9	38	16	6	1	12%	1.2	42.1%	15.8%	26.3%	2.6%	1.93	2.99	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	117	475	126	34	21	85%	4.5	21.0%	8.1%	12.9%	4.9%	3.85	5.02	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	117	475	126	34	21	85%	4.5	26.5%	7.2%	19.4%	4.4%	3.85	4.15	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	121	517	109	51	14	96%	4.7	17.3%	9.6%	7.7%	2.9%	3.56	4.44	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	121	517	109	51	14	96%	4.7	17.3%	9.6%	7.7%	2.9%	3.56	4.44	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	121	517	109	51	14	96%	4.7	21.1%	9.9%	11.2%	2.7%	3.56	4.06	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	29	26	119	559	131	69	27	90%	4.1	19.5%	11.1%	8.3%	5.3%	7.54	5.79	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	29	26	119	559	131	69	27	90%	4.1	19.5%	11.1%	8.3%	5.3%	7.54	5.79	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	29	26	119	559	131	69	27	90%	4.1	23.4%	12.3%	11.1%	4.8%	7.54	5.58	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	3	0	6	27	7	3	0	0%	1.9	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.32	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	3	0	6	27	7	3	0	0%	1.9	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.32	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	3	0	6	27	7	3	0	0%	1.9	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%	0.0%	0.00	2.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	23	0	25	96	31	6	0	0%	1.1	27.5%	5.6%	21.9%	0.0%	1.08	1.49	—
YTD	27	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	23	0	25	96	31	6	0	0%	1.1	27.5%	5.6%	21.9%	0.0%	1.08	1.49	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	A RAW	NYM	5	0	6	22	6	2	0	0%	1.1	27.3%	9.1%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.95	—
2026	27	A+ RAW	NYM	4	0	4	15	5	1	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	6.7%	26.7%	0.0%	4.50	1.13	—
2026	27	AA RAW	NYM	14	0	15	59	20	3	0	0%	1.1	33.9%	5.1%	28.8%	0.0%	0.59	0.88	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	NYM	6	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.6%	9.0%	3.8%	5.24	5.24	-0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	31	123	36	9	1	—	—	29.5%	7.2%	22.3%	0.8%	1.92	2.24	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYM	80	0	84	354	70	37	13	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.4%	9.2%	3.8%	5.19	5.22	-0.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYM	76	0	80	338	66	35	13	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.5%	9.2%	3.9%	5.22	5.28	-0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYM	72	0	75	318	68	31	13	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	4.0%	5.15	5.14	-0.5
2030	31	MLB MLE	NYM	67	0	70	296	62	30	13	0%	1.0	21.0%	10.2%	10.9%	4.2%	5.24	5.32	-0.6
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYM	30	0	32	135	27	14	5	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.4%	9.2%	3.8%	5.19	5.22	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYM	43	0	45	190	37	20	7	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.5%	9.2%	3.9%	5.22	5.28	-0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYM	49	0	51	215	46	21	9	0%	1.0	21.4%	9.8%	11.6%	4.0%	5.15	5.14	-0.3
2030	31	MLB CTX	NYM	51	0	54	228	48	23	10	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.2%	10.9%	4.2%	5.24	5.32	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		173	0	181	765	157	78	31	0%	1.0	20.6%	10.2%	10.4%	4.0%	5.20	4.86	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	86	34	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.2%	10.4%	4.0%	5.20	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		115	74	398	1712	347	164	69	64%	3.5	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	4.0%	4.59	4.81	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	37	200	861	175	83	35	64%	3.5	20.3%	9.6%	10.7%	4.0%	4.59	4.81	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Armbruester (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.24	19.6%	10.6%	3.8%	—	5.21	20.2%	9.9%	239	-0.03	—	—	—
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	221	82
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	81
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	80
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	79
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	78
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	78
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	78
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	77
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	77
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	77
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.49	18.4%	8.8%	205	+0.05	4.04	577	76
André Rienzo R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SW	4.22	15.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.264	4.02	19.8%	5.1%	74	-0.20	3.53	200	76
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	75
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	75
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.67	18.2%	7.1%	248	-0.15	4.29	360	75
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	74
Luis Romero R 2021 · 6.01 FIP	27	SW	6.01	13.8%	10.1%	5.1%	.293	5.70	11.6%	-1.5%	68	-0.31	4.00	293	74
Kaleb Roper R 2022 · 5.67 FIP	26	SW	5.67	17.3%	11.8%	4.6%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	146	74
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	74
Ryan Watson R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	25	SW	4.98	17.3%	10.5%	3.7%	.321	3.57	21.6%	14.7%	152	-1.41	3.11	412	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	79	20.2%	10.3%	1.52	5.21
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41