Justin Armbruester
P
Norfolk Tides
+0.2
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 235 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA5.18
FIP5.18
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.5%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%10.1%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 8 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 16 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.93 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 26 | 22 | 117 | 475 | 126 | 34 | 21 | 21.0% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 3.85 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 26 | 25 | 121 | 517 | 109 | 51 | 14 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 3.56 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 29 | 26 | 119 | 559 | 131 | 69 | 27 | 20.6% | 13.0% | 5.3% | 7.54 | 5.93 | -0.9 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 3 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 7 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 506 | 108 | 57 | 19 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.18 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 109 | 56 | 19 | 21.4% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 5.10 | 5.11 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 117 | 495 | 106 | 54 | 18 | 21.4% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 5.07 | 5.09 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 480 | 102 | 52 | 18 | 21.2% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 5.08 | 5.11 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 97 | 50 | 18 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 3.8% | 5.12 | 5.17 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 19 | 19 | 105 | 445 | 92 | 49 | 17 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 5.20 | 5.25 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 425 | 87 | 48 | 17 | 20.4% | 11.2% | 4.0% | 5.29 | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 81 | 46 | 16 | 20.0% | 11.4% | 4.1% | 5.39 | 5.46 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 16 | 16 | 90 | 381 | 75 | 44 | 16 | 19.7% | 11.6% | 4.2% | 5.51 | 5.58 | -0.4 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 68 | 42 | 15 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 4.3% | 5.63 | 5.72 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 92 | 74 | 373 | 1616 | 331 | 174 | 69 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 4.3% | 4.83 | 5.10 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 40 | 200 | 867 | 178 | 93 | 37 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 4.3% | 4.83 | 5.10 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Armbruester (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.18 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 3.8% | — | 5.10 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 351 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 83 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.72 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.12 | 3.22 | 221 | 83 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 83 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 82 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 82 |
| J.P. France R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.46 | 24.9% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .301 | 4.57 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 205 | +0.11 | 4.07 | 530 | 81 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 81 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.00 | 22.3% | 13.6% | 3.8% | .325 | 4.04 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.96 | 4.04 | 448 | 80 |
| Trent Sellers R 2024 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 80 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 80 |
| Brady Feigl R 2024 · 5.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.32 | 19.4% | 9.6% | 4.8% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 257 | 78 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 78 |
| K.C. Hunt R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 19.3% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 223 | 78 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 78 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 78 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 77 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 77 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 77 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 77 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .368 | 4.33 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 79 | +0.28 | 2.95 | 492 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.