Logan Evans — OGILVIE

Logan Evans P Seattle Mariners

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.9 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 114

ERA4.86

FIP5.12

K%16.1%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%6.5%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p1019.4%

p1416.9%

xwOBA vs

p180.350

CT+6.4 (27%)

CH (12%)

SI (17%)

CU (10%)

SL-1.5 (23%)

FB-5.2 (28%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.721 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.1M		$-4M	-$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	15	57	15	2	0	100%	3.0	26.3%	3.5%	22.8%	0.0%	0.60	1.32	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	5	15	57	15	2	0	100%	3.0	26.3%	3.5%	22.8%	0.0%	0.60	1.32	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	5	15	57	15	2	0	100%	3.0	26.3%	3.5%	22.8%	0.0%	0.60	1.50	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	32	22	107	447	98	42	7	69%	3.3	17.8%	10.3%	7.4%	2.3%	3.20	4.17	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	32	22	107	447	98	42	7	69%	3.3	17.8%	10.3%	7.4%	2.3%	3.20	4.17	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	32	22	107	447	98	42	7	69%	3.3	21.9%	9.4%	12.5%	1.6%	3.20	3.30	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	125	545	104	43	16	96%	4.6	17.7%	7.7%	10.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.20	+1.0
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	26	125	545	104	43	16	96%	4.6	17.7%	7.7%	10.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.20	+1.0
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	26	125	545	104	43	16	96%	4.6	19.1%	7.9%	11.2%	2.9%	4.67	4.13	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	15	81	350	59	30	13	94%	5.1	16.9%	8.6%	8.3%	3.7%	4.32	4.83	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	25	MLB	SEA	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	16.1%	9.5%	6.5%	3.3%	4.86	5.12	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	120	506	86	47	16	100%	6.0	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	3.2%	4.90	4.99	-0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	122	515	90	48	17	100%	6.1	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	3.3%	4.92	4.97	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	122	515	90	48	17	100%	6.1	17.6%	9.3%	8.2%	3.4%	4.97	5.02	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	116	492	84	47	17	100%	6.1	17.1%	9.5%	7.6%	3.5%	5.08	5.16	-0.3
2031	30	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	110	462	76	45	17	100%	6.1	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	3.7%	5.25	5.37	-0.6
2027	26	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	114	481	82	45	15	100%	6.0	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	3.2%	4.86	4.95	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	116	490	86	45	16	100%	6.1	17.5%	9.3%	8.2%	3.2%	4.88	4.93	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	116	490	86	46	16	100%	6.1	17.6%	9.3%	8.2%	3.3%	4.92	4.97	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	SEA	18	18	111	469	80	45	16	100%	6.2	17.1%	9.5%	7.6%	3.4%	5.03	5.11	-0.3
2031	30	MLB CTX	SEA	17	17	104	439	72	43	16	100%	6.1	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	3.6%	5.20	5.32	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		109	108	642	2716	464	253	91	99%	5.9	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	3.4%	4.89	4.69	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	846	145	79	28	99%	5.9	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	3.4%	4.89	4.69	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		64	53	247	1049	191	90	26	83%	3.9	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	2.5%	3.78	4.03	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	43	200	848	154	73	21	83%	3.9	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	2.5%	3.78	4.03	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Logan Evans (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	16.1%	9.5%	3.3%	—	4.99	17.4%	8.1%	364	-0.13	—	—	—
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	84
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	82
Jarred Cosart R 2015 · 5.07 FIP	25	SP	5.07	15.2%	10.8%	3.4%	.274	4.94	13.1%	-0.5%	132	-0.13	4.10	218	82
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	81
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	81
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	81
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	80
Allen Webster R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP	5.05	14.0%	9.1%	3.6%	.356	5.78	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.73	4.56	177	80
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	80
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	80
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	80
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	79
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	79
Trenton Toplikar R 2021 · 5.25 FIP	25	SP-	5.25	16.4%	9.3%	4.3%	.325	5.83	16.9%	4.2%	30	+0.58	4.32	232	79
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	79
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	79
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	78
Chase Solesky R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.6%	10.0%	3.0%	.322	4.49	15.4%	8.2%	268	-0.31	4.07	563	78
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	111	17.0%	9.4%	1.31	5.00
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56