Logan Evans
P
Seattle Mariners
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.6 · 2028
ERA4.48
FIP4.59
xFIP4.87
SIERA4.93
K%18.8%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%10.2%
IP81
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2028
STUF4040
CTRL4545
CMD3535
K†4040
FB Velo
p2692.8
Whiff%
p1019.4%
K%
p1416.9%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
CT+6.4 (27%)
CH (12%)
SI (17%)
CU (10%)
SL-1.5 (23%)
FB-5.2 (28%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | A | Modesto Nuts | 5 | 5 | 15 | 57 | 15 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.60 | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 32 | 22 | 107 | 447 | 98 | 42 | 7 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 2.4% | 3.20 | 4.21 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 27 | 26 | 125 | 545 | 104 | 43 | 16 | 18.1% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.13 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 24 | — | 24 | 103 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 65 | 36 | 12 | 17.5% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.87 | 4.96 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 92 | 387 | 69 | 36 | 12 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.92 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 70 | 37 | 12 | 18.0% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.88 | 4.91 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 16 | 16 | 90 | 380 | 67 | 36 | 12 | 17.6% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.92 | 4.97 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 16 | 16 | 87 | 369 | 63 | 35 | 12 | 17.1% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 5.00 | 5.06 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 59 | 34 | 12 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 5.10 | 5.16 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 54 | 33 | 12 | 15.8% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 5.21 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 77 | 326 | 56 | 30 | 12 | 17.2% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 5.17 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 73 | 310 | 51 | 29 | 11 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | 5.23 | 5.27 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 46 | 28 | 11 | 15.8% | 9.6% | 3.8% | 5.35 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 41 | 27 | 11 | 15.0% | 9.8% | 3.9% | 5.49 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 53 | 247 | 1049 | 193 | 92 | 26 | 18.4% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 3.78 | 4.01 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 43 | 200 | 848 | 156 | 74 | 21 | 18.4% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 3.78 | 4.01 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Logan Evans (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | — | 4.93 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 272 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 83 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .338 | 3.89 | 13.6% | 3.1% | 72 | -0.64 | 3.89 | 143 | 82 |
| Pedro Echemendia R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.82 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .286 | 4.37 | 11.0% | 5.9% | 72 | -0.45 | 4.37 | 141 | 82 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 135 | 81 |
| Cameron Foster R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.84 | 17.4% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .321 | 2.58 | 27.5% | 18.5% | 46 | -2.26 | 2.58 | 199 | 81 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 81 |
| Dylan Burns R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.07 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.87 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.07 | 120 | 81 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2028 · 4.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.66 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | .307 | 3.46 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.20 | 3.35 | 227 | 81 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 81 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 81 |
| El'Hajj Muhammad R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .285 | 5.04 | 7.1% | -2.5% | 11 | +0.45 | 4.59 | 113 | 80 |
| David Goforth R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 80 |
| Hunter McMahon R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.24 | 16.6% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .301 | 5.92 | 5.7% | 1.8% | 14 | +1.68 | 2.23 | 174 | 80 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.08 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 3.84 | 21.6% | 13.4% | 73 | -0.24 | 3.84 | 206 | 80 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.27 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .309 | 4.63 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.36 | 4.27 | 328 | 80 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2028 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.05 | 16.4% | 9.4% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.12 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 293 | +0.07 | 3.40 | 556 | 80 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 218 | 80 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 146 | 79 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.69 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 4.63 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.06 | 4.58 | 151 | 79 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2024 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 278 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.