Seth Shuman

P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 29 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX4 levels	18	17	64	4.10	3.68	21.3%	6.1%	—	K 14.1% · BB 8.0% · FIP 5.47
2025	27	MIX2 levels	34	17	107	6.24	4.73	20.3%	4.5%	—	K 17.3% · BB 4.1% · FIP 5.30
2026	28	MIX2 levels	45	0	63	2.86	3.31	17.9%	10.3%	—	K 16.4% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.16
2027PROJ	29	MLBSEA	7	0	7	4.63	4.63	15.8%	6.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBSEA	21	0	22	4.71	4.78	16.2%	6.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBSEA	27	0	28	4.84	4.95	16.3%	7.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control65Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRamon Delgado (age 29) · Rodolfo Aguirre (age 30) · Yoanner Negrin (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%15.8%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%9.7%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6565

CMD5050

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	21	19	90	379	93	25	12	90%	4.3	18.9%	7.6%	11.3%	4.4%	3.69	4.86	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	21	19	90	379	93	25	12	90%	4.3	24.5%	6.6%	17.9%	3.2%	3.69	3.60	—
2022	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	14	14	61	259	55	14	5	100%	4.4	16.4%	6.2%	10.1%	2.2%	3.23	3.70	—
2022	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	14	14	61	259	55	14	5	100%	4.4	21.2%	5.4%	15.8%	1.9%	3.23	3.05	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	17	64	277	59	17	8	94%	3.5	14.1%	8.0%	6.1%	4.6%	4.10	5.47	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	17	64	277	59	17	8	94%	3.5	14.1%	8.0%	6.1%	4.6%	4.10	5.47	—
2024	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	17	64	277	59	17	8	94%	3.5	21.3%	6.1%	15.2%	2.9%	4.10	3.68	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	17	107	464	94	21	23	50%	3.1	17.3%	4.1%	13.2%	5.7%	6.24	5.30	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	17	107	464	94	21	23	50%	3.1	17.3%	4.1%	13.2%	5.7%	6.24	5.30	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	17	107	464	94	21	23	50%	3.1	20.3%	4.5%	15.7%	5.0%	6.24	4.73	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	63	263	47	27	2	0%	1.4	16.4%	9.2%	7.2%	0.5%	2.86	3.16	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	63	263	47	27	2	0%	1.4	16.4%	9.2%	7.2%	0.5%	2.86	3.16	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	63	263	47	27	2	0%	1.4	17.9%	10.3%	7.6%	0.8%	2.86	3.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	SEA	7	0	7	30	5	2	1	0%	1.0	15.8%	6.1%	9.7%	3.1%	4.63	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	SEA	56	0	59	248	40	17	8	0%	1.1	16.2%	6.7%	9.5%	3.3%	4.71	4.78	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	SEA	48	0	51	214	35	16	8	0%	1.1	16.3%	7.2%	9.1%	3.5%	4.84	4.95	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	SEA	21	0	22	93	15	6	3	0%	1.0	16.2%	6.7%	9.5%	3.3%	4.71	4.78	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	SEA	27	0	28	118	19	9	4	0%	1.0	16.3%	7.2%	9.1%	3.5%	4.84	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	0	50	210	34	15	7	0%	1.1	16.2%	7.0%	9.2%	3.4%	4.78	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	137	60	28	0%	1.1	16.2%	7.0%	9.2%	3.4%	4.78	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		132	67	385	1642	276	110	63	51%	2.9	16.8%	6.7%	10.1%	3.8%	4.25	4.63	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	35	200	853	144	57	33	51%	2.9	16.8%	6.7%	10.1%	3.8%	4.25	4.63	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAATacoma Rainiers · 51 IPFIP 3.04 → 3.16 (+0.12)K% 19.1% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.07%	—	×0.860	16.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.23%	—	×0.900	9.21%
HR / BF /BF	0.47%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.51%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.04 → 3.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAHarrisburg Senators · 12 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.07 (+0.56)K% 12.5% → 10.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.50%	—	×0.810	10.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.42%	—	×1.100	11.46%
HR / BF /BF	2.08%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.50%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAARochester Red Wings · 91 IPFIP 4.94 → 5.53 (+0.59)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.25%	—	×0.860	17.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.25%	—	×0.900	4.72%
HR / BF /BF	5.25%	÷0.960	×1.100	6.02%

Result: FIP 4.94 → 5.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHarrisburg Senators · 15 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.85 (+0.75)K% 20.3% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.31%	—	×0.810	16.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.12%	÷0.963	×1.200	3.89%

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 31 IPFIP 4.91 → 5.96 (+1.05)K% 18.0% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.05%	—	×0.770	13.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.77%	—	×1.150	7.78%
HR / BF /BF	4.51%	÷1.016	×1.250	5.55%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 4.91 → 5.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHarrisburg Senators · 17 IPFIP 3.97 → 4.65 (+0.68)K% 17.9% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.95%	—	×0.810	14.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.100	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.990	×1.200	3.11%

Result: FIP 3.97 → 4.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 11 IPFIP 1.52 → 2.16 (+0.64)K% 25.0% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.740	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×1.180	4.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.078	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 1.52 → 2.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 61 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.70 (+0.64)K% 21.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.24%	—	×0.770	16.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.41%	—	×1.150	6.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.93%	÷1.114	×1.250	2.17%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Seth Shuman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	15.8%	6.1%	3.1%	—	4.86	16.2%	9.3%	110	+0.23	—	—	—
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	91
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SW	4.29	12.4%	6.9%	2.5%	.288	4.81	11.4%	1.3%	125	+0.52	3.39	212	83
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	82
Murphy Smith R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SW	4.32	13.6%	4.9%	3.2%	.267	4.57	13.6%	4.3%	63	+0.25	3.16	300	80
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	80
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	78
Fredy Quintero R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	29	SW	4.45	14.0%	8.7%	2.6%	.335	4.62	17.2%	3.5%	43	+0.17	4.29	241	75
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	73
Alfonso Sanchez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	29	SW	4.51	12.5%	9.8%	2.2%	.346	7.58	8.6%	1.4%	39	+3.07	4.51	224	73
Felipe Arredondo R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	29	SW	3.92	17.2%	6.6%	2.6%	.281	4.71	15.4%	8.2%	139	+0.79	3.92	337	73
Jorge Martinez R 2016 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP-	3.53	12.9%	5.3%	1.6%	.266	3.71	16.5%	11.5%	154	+0.18	3.53	214	71
Donovan Hand R 2015 · 4.30 FIP	29	SW	4.30	11.1%	4.3%	2.9%	.305	4.56	12.5%	5.7%	140	+0.26	4.30	305	71
Jason Simontacchi R 2003 · 4.96 FIP	29	SW	4.96	13.1%	7.3%	3.7%	.309	8.14	4.5%	-5.9%	15	+3.18	4.79	356	70
Sugar Ray Marimon R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	26	SW	4.12	12.4%	9.1%	1.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	107	69
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	69
Zach Neal R 2018 · 4.44 FIP	29	SW	4.44	13.8%	3.6%	3.7%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	732	69
Warwick Saupold R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	28	SW	4.82	13.7%	7.6%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.47	389	69
David Reyes R 2019 · 4.94 FIP	29	SW	4.94	13.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	465	69
Scarlyn Reyes R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	27	SW	4.87	13.7%	8.4%	3.4%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	317	69
Ryan Jensen R 2005 · 4.35 FIP	29	SW	4.35	15.7%	5.2%	3.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	4.35	253	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	16.1%	6.6%	1.27	4.72
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*