Seth Shuman
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.1
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2029
ERA5.04
FIP5.04
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.2%
BB%6.4%
K-BB%12.7%
IP86
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2029
STUF4040
CTRL6565
CMD5050
K†4050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 21 | 19 | 90 | 379 | 93 | 25 | 12 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 3.69 | 4.90 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 14 | 14 | 61 | 259 | 55 | 14 | 5 | 16.4% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 3.23 | 3.67 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 18 | 17 | 64 | 277 | 59 | 17 | 8 | 14.1% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 4.10 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 34 | 17 | 107 | 464 | 94 | 21 | 23 | 17.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.24 | 5.32 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 7 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 8 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.66 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 65 | 21 | 16 | 17.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.04 | 5.04 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 96 | 406 | 75 | 29 | 16 | 18.6% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 5.00 | 4.53 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 65 | 21 | 15 | 18.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.99 | 5.01 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 63 | 21 | 14 | 18.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.98 | 5.01 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 67 | 19 | 14 | 20.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.85 | 4.78 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 64 | 19 | 14 | 20.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.85 | 4.85 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 60 | 18 | 13 | 19.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.91 | 4.95 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 56 | 18 | 13 | 19.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 5.00 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 52 | 18 | 12 | 19.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 5.11 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 47 | 17 | 12 | 18.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.23 | 5.32 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 94 | 67 | 332 | 1421 | 245 | 97 | 61 | 17.2% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 4.53 | 4.88 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 40 | 200 | 857 | 148 | 58 | 37 | 17.2% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 4.53 | 4.88 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Seth Shuman (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.04 | 17.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | — | 4.94 | 18.9% | 13.0% | 245 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Omar Bencomo R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.48 | 18.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | .333 | 4.46 | 14.9% | 10.1% | 186 | -0.02 | 3.70 | 381 | 88 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 85 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.64 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 3.8% | .327 | 3.81 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 316 | 85 |
| Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 85 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.76 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 3.9% | .261 | 5.17 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.41 | 4.58 | 261 | 84 |
| Jason Forjet R 2024 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.48 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 197 | 83 |
| Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.87 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | +0.17 | 4.87 | 294 | 81 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.78 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.17 | 2.49 | 373 | 81 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.98 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 80 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.69 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.74 | 3.69 | 283 | 80 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 79 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 78 |
| Yohan Pino R 2029 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.10 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.35 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.25 | 4.10 | 133 | 78 |
| Jason Berken R 2029 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.51 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | +0.15 | 4.36 | 219 | 77 |
| Joe Wieland R 2024 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.28 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 270 | 77 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.34 | 12.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% | .289 | 3.82 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 329 | -0.52 | 3.14 | 593 | 77 |
| Donovan Hand R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.31 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .305 | 4.54 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 140 | +0.23 | 4.31 | 237 | 77 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 6.02 FIP | 28 | SP- | 6.02 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 5.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 223 | 76 |
| Tanner Roark R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.26 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% | .286 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 12.9% | 572 | -0.46 | 3.13 | 942 | 76 |
| David Martinez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.55 | 14.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .368 | 4.88 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 136 | +0.33 | 3.95 | 297 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.