Chance Kirby
P
Erie SeaWolves
Age 31
RHP
5'11" / 165 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 6 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%23.2%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP6
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 5 | 33 | 131 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 71% | 4.7 | 17.8% | 5.7% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 3.27 | 4.26 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 5 | 33 | 131 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 71% | 4.7 | 26.7% | 5.3% | 21.4% | 1.5% | 3.27 | 2.40 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 14 | 88 | 363 | 64 | 15 | 12 | 78% | 4.9 | 13.2% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 4.62 | 5.76 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 14 | 88 | 363 | 64 | 15 | 12 | 78% | 4.9 | 17.6% | 4.1% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 4.62 | 3.93 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 15 | 83 | 347 | 66 | 31 | 14 | 79% | 4.4 | 15.1% | 10.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.54 | 5.96 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 15 | 83 | 347 | 66 | 31 | 14 | 79% | 4.4 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 4.54 | 4.82 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 29 | 21 | 127 | 496 | 116 | 29 | 14 | 72% | 4.4 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 2.62 | 4.50 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 29 | 21 | 127 | 496 | 116 | 29 | 14 | 72% | 4.4 | 23.4% | 5.8% | 17.5% | 2.8% | 2.62 | 3.39 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 2 | 17 | 82 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 22% | 1.9 | 14.0% | 16.9% | -2.9% | 6.2% | 7.27 | 7.48 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 9 | 2 | 17 | 82 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 22% | 1.9 | 13.4% | 12.2% | 1.2% | 4.9% | 7.27 | 6.56 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | DET | 1 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.3 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | DET | 3 | 3 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | DET | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 1 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.22 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.7% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 4.51 | 4.22 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 82 | 57 | 348 | 1419 | 229 | 105 | 68 | 70% | 4.2 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 3.88 | 5.33 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 33 | 200 | 815 | 131 | 60 | 39 | 70% | 4.2 | 16.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 3.88 | 5.33 | +0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chance Kirby (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 23.2% | 9.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.60 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 20 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 71 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 68 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 67 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 65 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.86 | 17.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .426 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 133 | 64 |
| Phil Hughes R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SP- | 5.03 | 15.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | .328 | 6.34 | 21.1% | 15.2% | 33 | +1.31 | 4.61 | 301 | 62 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 62 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.10 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .301 | 7.89 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.79 | 0.76 | 348 | 62 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.24 | 25.4% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .310 | 4.86 | 19.3% | 11.5% | 188 | +1.62 | 3.24 | 592 | 62 |
| Mitch Lively R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.49 | 17.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 158 | 62 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2024 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 61 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.30 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.0% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 200 | 60 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.04 | 25.1% | 8.1% | 3.7% | .261 | 4.12 | 22.8% | 12.5% | 96 | +0.08 | 2.88 | 533 | 60 |
| Yu Darvish R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.36 | 27.2% | 11.7% | 3.8% | .282 | 3.50 | 30.5% | 24.0% | 421 | -0.86 | 1.91 | 1,253 | 60 |
| Tyler Herron R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 60 |
| Yohan Pino R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 59 |
| Jorge Martinez R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.42 | 12.9% | 5.3% | 1.4% | .266 | 3.59 | 16.5% | 11.5% | 154 | +0.17 | 3.42 | 214 | 59 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2024 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.84 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 59 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.98 | 15.2% | 7.9% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.00 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 78 | +0.02 | 2.86 | 306 | 58 |
| Garrett Richards R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.09 | 26.9% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .276 | 4.36 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 188 | +0.27 | 2.34 | 577 | 57 |