Nick Payero
P
Everett AquaSox
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
A+
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 125
ERA5.54
FIP5.54
K%15.8%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%3.7%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | ACL Reds | 4 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.9 | 20.9% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 10.57 | 5.36 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | ACL Reds | 4 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.9 | 20.9% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 10.57 | 6.10 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 14 | 88 | 367 | 77 | 22 | 12 | 67% | 4.2 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 3.49 | 4.06 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 21 | 14 | 88 | 367 | 77 | 22 | 12 | 67% | 4.2 | 21.0% | 6.0% | 15.0% | 3.3% | 3.49 | 3.88 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 23 | 16 | 107 | 460 | 99 | 48 | 18 | 70% | 4.7 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.61 | 5.72 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 23 | 16 | 107 | 460 | 99 | 48 | 18 | 70% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 4.61 | 4.78 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 70 | 296 | 47 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 7.0 | 15.8% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.54 | 5.54 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 69 | 291 | 48 | 34 | 10 | 100% | 6.9 | 16.5% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.44 | 5.45 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 67 | 282 | 48 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 6.7 | 16.9% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 5.41 | 5.45 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 17 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.5% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.44 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 28 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.5 | 16.9% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 5.41 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 65 | 273 | 46 | 32 | 9 | 100% | 6.5 | 16.8% | 11.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 5.42 | 5.07 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 30 | 30 | 200 | 844 | 142 | 99 | 28 | 100% | 6.7 | 16.8% | 11.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 5.42 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
| Career | — | 48 | 30 | 203 | 870 | 146 | 83 | 33 | 62% | 4.2 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 4.35 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 30 | 200 | 859 | 144 | 82 | 33 | 62% | 4.2 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 4.35 | 5.00 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Payero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.54 | 15.8% | 12.0% | 3.4% | — | 5.45 | 16.7% | 4.9% | 136 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 83 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.13 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | .263 | 4.14 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -0.99 | 3.84 | 272 | 82 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 82 |
| Jake Dunning R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 80 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.06 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.19 | 4.25 | 412 | 79 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 78 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.80 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 3.7% | .263 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.61 | 3.14 | 406 | 77 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.64 | 11.7% | 11.7% | 1.9% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.90 | 371 | 77 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 76 |
| Chance Kirby R 2026 · 5.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.96 | 15.1% | 10.0% | 5.2% | .242 | 4.74 | 18.5% | 11.2% | 138 | -1.22 | 4.26 | 325 | 76 |
| Mike Connolly R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 76 |
| Allen Webster R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 76 |
| Adam Panayotovich R 2025 · 5.45 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.45 | 9.6% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 121 | 75 |
| Terance Marin R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.01 | 11.2% | 7.7% | 3.4% | .294 | 4.18 | 12.4% | 7.5% | 88 | -0.83 | 3.39 | 322 | 75 |
| Alex Sanabia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 11.4% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .358 | 3.56 | 11.1% | 6.2% | 161 | -0.91 | 3.51 | 378 | 75 |
| Mike McCarthy R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.79 | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .280 | 4.77 | 6.2% | -3.5% | 37 | -0.02 | 4.77 | 153 | 75 |
| Braden Olthoff R 2023 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.57 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 108 | 74 |
| Matthew Shepherd R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.57 | 13.7% | 9.5% | 4.4% | .390 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.57 | 116 | 74 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.60 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | .285 | 4.61 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | +0.01 | 4.60 | 529 | 74 |
| Bubba Derby R 2025 · 5.48 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.48 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 4.8% | .287 | 5.37 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 71 | -0.11 | 3.74 | 550 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 16.4% | 11.9% | 1.33 | 5.46 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |