Nick Payero
P
Everett AquaSox
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
A+
peak 0.4 · 2027
ERA4.99
FIP4.99
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.8%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%9.6%
IP95
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2027
STUF4040
CTRL4040
CMD4040
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23 | ROK | ACL Reds | 4 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 9 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | 10.57 | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 21 | 14 | 88 | 367 | 77 | 22 | 12 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 3.49 | 4.22 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 23 | 16 | 107 | 460 | 99 | 48 | 18 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 4.7% | 4.61 | 5.80 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 75 | 46 | 14 | 18.6% | 11.4% | 3.5% | 5.25 | 5.25 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 18 | 18 | 98 | 416 | 79 | 46 | 14 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 3.4% | 5.16 | 5.16 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 18 | 18 | 99 | 418 | 80 | 45 | 14 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 5.11 | 5.12 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 18 | 18 | 97 | 409 | 78 | 44 | 14 | 19.1% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 5.10 | 5.12 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 75 | 43 | 14 | 19.0% | 10.8% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 5.16 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 16 | 16 | 91 | 383 | 72 | 42 | 14 | 18.8% | 10.9% | 3.6% | 5.19 | 5.24 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 16 | 16 | 87 | 367 | 68 | 41 | 13 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 5.27 | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 83 | 351 | 64 | 40 | 13 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 5.36 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 79 | 333 | 66 | 36 | 13 | 19.8% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 5.30 | 5.26 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 61 | 34 | 12 | 19.4% | 10.9% | 3.9% | 5.35 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 70 | 294 | 56 | 33 | 12 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 5.45 | 5.52 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 30 | 203 | 870 | 146 | 83 | 35 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 4.35 | 5.11 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 30 | 200 | 859 | 144 | 82 | 35 | 16.8% | 9.6% | 4.0% | 4.35 | 5.11 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Payero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.25 | 18.6% | 11.4% | 3.5% | — | 5.13 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 294 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.81 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.19 | 308 | 87 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 85 |
| Ranfi Casimiro R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 2.9% | .285 | 4.91 | 8.4% | -0.2% | 16 | +0.25 | 3.81 | 420 | 85 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .285 | 5.94 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.20 | 4.42 | 239 | 85 |
| M.D. Johnson R 2026 · 5.63 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.63 | 16.4% | 12.7% | 4.2% | .254 | 3.52 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 67 | -2.11 | 3.52 | 395 | 85 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 84 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 84 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 84 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 84 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 84 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .262 | 3.93 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -0.85 | 3.50 | 472 | 84 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 84 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 84 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 84 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 84 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.35 | 17.9% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .285 | 4.28 | 16.4% | 5.3% | 48 | -0.07 | 4.28 | 448 | 83 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 83 |
| Logan Verrett R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.08 | 15.4% | 10.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.68 | 17.8% | 11.8% | 94 | -0.40 | 3.83 | 550 | 83 |
| Kevin Abel R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.51 | 17.8% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.78 | 15.1% | -7.3% | 13 | +1.27 | 4.50 | 352 | 83 |
| Trent Sellers R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.51 | 21.8% | 13.3% | 2.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 178 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.