Noah Skirrow

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 29 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	24	MIX2 levels	25	25	120	4.36	3.32	25.8%	8.0%	—	K 21.2% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.97
2023	25	AAAPHI	24	14	102	5.84	5.54	16.6%	11.2%	—	K 14.3% · BB 10.0% · FIP 5.51
2024	26	AAPHI	25	17	95	4.66	4.47	14.5%	10.6%	—	K 11.7% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.77
2025	27	No MLB games played
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBPHI	1	1	1	5.03	5.03	16.8%	10.7%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBPHI	3	3	16	5.06	5.14	17.1%	10.9%	0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBPHI	4	4	22	5.16	5.28	17.1%	11.1%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsTravis Smith (age 29) · Zack Segovia (age 32) · Luke Irvine (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%16.8%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%6.0%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	10	58	257	60	27	7	56%	3.2	18.4%	11.5%	6.9%	2.8%	4.34	4.55	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	10	58	257	60	27	7	56%	3.2	23.3%	10.5%	12.8%	2.7%	4.34	4.00	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	120	515	133	41	13	100%	4.8	21.2%	8.7%	12.5%	2.8%	4.36	3.97	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	120	515	133	41	13	100%	4.8	25.8%	8.0%	17.9%	2.5%	4.36	3.32	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	24	14	102	475	79	53	19	58%	4.2	14.3%	10.0%	4.3%	4.3%	5.84	5.51	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	24	14	102	475	79	53	19	58%	4.2	16.6%	11.2%	5.5%	4.0%	5.84	5.54	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	25	17	95	442	64	47	9	68%	3.8	11.7%	11.7%	0.0%	2.1%	4.66	4.77	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	25	17	95	442	64	47	9	68%	3.8	11.7%	11.7%	0.0%	2.1%	4.66	4.77	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	25	17	95	442	64	47	9	68%	3.8	14.5%	10.6%	3.8%	2.0%	4.66	4.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	PHI	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	16.8%	10.7%	6.0%	2.9%	5.03	5.03	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	52	219	37	24	7	100%	5.8	17.1%	10.9%	6.2%	3.1%	5.06	5.14	+0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	PHI	7	7	44	184	32	20	6	100%	6.2	17.1%	11.1%	6.0%	3.3%	5.16	5.28	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	16	68	12	7	2	100%	5.3	17.1%	10.9%	6.2%	3.1%	5.06	5.14	+0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	22	93	16	10	3	100%	5.5	17.1%	11.1%	6.0%	3.3%	5.16	5.28	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	6	39	163	28	18	5	100%	6.4	17.1%	11.0%	6.1%	3.3%	5.12	4.84	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	145	93	26	100%	6.0	17.1%	11.0%	6.1%	3.3%	5.12	4.84	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		92	66	374	1689	276	173	52	72%	4.1	16.3%	10.3%	6.1%	3.1%	4.84	4.70	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	35	200	903	148	93	28	72%	4.1	16.3%	10.3%	6.1%	3.1%	4.84	4.70	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 95 IPFIP 4.34 → 4.77 (+0.43)K% 14.5% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.48%	—	×0.810	11.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.63%	—	×1.100	11.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.137	×1.200	2.15%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 127).

Result: FIP 4.34 → 4.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 102 IPFIP 5.30 → 5.51 (+0.21)K% 16.6% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.63%	—	×0.860	14.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.16%	—	×0.900	10.04%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.028	×1.100	4.28%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP 5.30 → 5.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAReading Fightin Phils · 99 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.76 (+0.70)K% 26.6% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.56%	—	×0.810	21.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.39%	—	×1.100	8.13%
HR / BF /BF	2.31%	÷1.051	×1.200	2.64%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 21 IPFIP 4.64 → 5.06 (+0.41)K% 22.0% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.95%	—	×0.880	19.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.98%	—	×1.050	11.52%
HR / BF /BF	3.66%	÷1.039	×1.100	3.87%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 4.64 → 5.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 31 IPFIP 2.91 → 3.91 (+0.99)K% 29.4% → 22.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.41%	—	×0.770	22.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.76%	—	×1.150	13.53%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.004	×1.250	1.83%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 2.91 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAReading Fightin Phils · 24 IPFIP 5.23 → 5.33 (+0.10)K% 16.2% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.22%	—	×0.810	13.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.11%	—	×1.100	8.92%
HR / BF /BF	4.50%	÷1.344	×1.200	4.02%

Result: FIP 5.23 → 5.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Skirrow (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	16.8%	10.7%	2.9%	—	5.20	17.1%	6.1%	95	+0.17	—	—	—
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	81
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	81
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	79
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	78
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	76
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	75
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	75
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	75
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	74
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	74
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	73
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	73
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	73
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	72
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	72
Kenneth Sigman R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	29	SP-	4.05	13.9%	7.7%	2.1%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	267	72
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	72
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	71
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	30	SP	3.97	17.4%	7.1%	2.6%	.315	4.94	15.9%	8.7%	305	+0.97	3.97	567	70
Colin Bates R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP-	4.57	10.5%	6.5%	2.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	111	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	53	17.0%	10.9%	1.20	5.08
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*