Jake Walters
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.66
FIP4.66
K%22.0%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%11.4%
ROS IP49
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 19 | 17 | 92 | 370 | 87 | 29 | 4 | 89% | 4.8 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 1.2% | 2.35 | 3.46 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 19 | 17 | 92 | 370 | 87 | 29 | 4 | 89% | 4.8 | 23.5% | 7.8% | 15.7% | 1.1% | 2.35 | 2.72 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 5 | 58 | 248 | 61 | 29 | 2 | 29% | 3.4 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 1.0% | 3.57 | 3.50 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 5 | 58 | 248 | 61 | 29 | 2 | 29% | 3.4 | 24.6% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 0.8% | 3.57 | 2.94 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 12 | 53 | 227 | 52 | 17 | 3 | 80% | 3.5 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 3.23 | 4.17 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 12 | 53 | 227 | 52 | 17 | 3 | 80% | 3.5 | 22.9% | 7.5% | 15.4% | 1.3% | 3.23 | 2.84 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 9 | 72 | 336 | 60 | 50 | 13 | 39% | 3.1 | 15.5% | 15.7% | -0.2% | 4.0% | 6.38 | 5.97 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 9 | 72 | 336 | 60 | 50 | 13 | 39% | 3.1 | 17.9% | 14.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.38 | 5.86 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 8 | 8 | 49 | 206 | 45 | 22 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 46 | 193 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 42 | 178 | 38 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 39 | 163 | 34 | 19 | 6 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 5.09 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 3 | 3 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.7 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 23 | 97 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 5.02 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.5 | 21.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 5.09 | 5.23 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 66 | 280 | 60 | 31 | 10 | 100% | 6.6 | 21.3% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 4.68 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 31 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 181 | 94 | 30 | 100% | 6.4 | 21.3% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 74 | 43 | 275 | 1181 | 203 | 138 | 26 | 58% | 3.7 | 17.2% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 3.83 | 4.32 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 31 | 200 | 859 | 148 | 100 | 19 | 58% | 3.7 | 17.2% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 3.83 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Walters (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.66 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 3.1% | — | 5.02 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 126 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 79 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 76 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 72 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 71 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 69 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 68 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 68 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 68 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 68 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 67 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.84 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 67 |
| Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .291 | 3.31 | 24.6% | 19.0% | 112 | -1.45 | 2.75 | 902 | 67 |
| Carlos Frías R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 67 |
| Zack Segovia R 2028 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 66 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 66 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 65 |
| Steve Johnson R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 65 |
| Jason Berken R 2027 · 4.69 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.69 | 13.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | .315 | 4.31 | 11.5% | 3.2% | 106 | -0.38 | 4.31 | 219 | 64 |
| Burch Smith R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.94 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .271 | 4.11 | 14.9% | 9.0% | 43 | +0.17 | 3.39 | 382 | 64 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .289 | 4.40 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 115 | +0.10 | 4.23 | 221 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 44 | 21.5% | 11.0% | 1.32 | 4.84 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |