Jake Walters
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
+0.3
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.67
FIP4.67
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%10.6%
K-BB%11.4%
IP70
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 19 | 17 | 92 | 370 | 87 | 29 | 4 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 1.3% | 2.35 | 3.50 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 17 | 5 | 58 | 248 | 61 | 29 | 2 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 1.1% | 3.57 | 3.54 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 15 | 12 | 53 | 227 | 52 | 17 | 3 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.2% | 3.23 | 4.05 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 23 | 9 | 72 | 336 | 60 | 50 | 13 | 15.5% | 15.7% | 4.1% | 6.38 | 6.06 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | MIA | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 65 | 31 | 9 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.67 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 67 | 285 | 62 | 30 | 9 | 21.9% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 65 | 273 | 59 | 29 | 9 | 21.7% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.72 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 56 | 28 | 9 | 21.5% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.84 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | MIA | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 53 | 27 | 8 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | MIA | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 3.5% | 4.98 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | MIA | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 44 | 25 | 8 | 20.4% | 11.4% | 3.6% | 5.11 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 43 | 275 | 1181 | 203 | 138 | 26 | 17.2% | 11.7% | 2.2% | 3.83 | 4.34 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 31 | 200 | 859 | 148 | 100 | 19 | 17.2% | 11.7% | 2.2% | 3.83 | 4.34 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Walters (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.77 | 21.7% | 11.1% | 194 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 86 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 86 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 86 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 84 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 84 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 83 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 83 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 82 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 82 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 82 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.44 | 2.91 | 210 | 81 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 81 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 81 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 80 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 80 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 158 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 79 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 79 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 79 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.