Justin Topa

P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 36 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	33	MIX3 levels	15	0	14	3.14	2.40	34.5%	9.1%	0.4	K 34.5% · BB 9.1% · FIP 2.33
2025	34	MLBMIN	54	1	60	3.90	2.65	18.3%	5.6%	1.4
2026	35	MIX2 levels	55	0	55	4.75	4.75	14.1%	9.4%	-0.1	K 13.0% · BB 8.9% · FIP 4.65
2027PROJ	36	MLBNYY	55	0	58	4.60	4.61	14.9%	8.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ91% MLB	37	MLBNYY	18	0	19	4.84	5.01	13.8%	8.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ77% MLB	38	MLBNYY	6	0	6	5.20	5.44	12.7%	9.4%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo36

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Juan Sandoval (age 36) · Erubiel Gonzalez (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.60

FIP4.61

K%14.9%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%6.8%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p1016.6%

p1013.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.367

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	13	50	8	3	0	0%	1.3	16.0%	6.0%	10.0%	0.0%	2.13	2.51	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	13	50	8	3	0	0%	1.3	16.0%	6.0%	10.0%	0.0%	2.13	2.55	—
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	7	45	202	38	14	6	70%	4.5	15.1%	7.9%	7.3%	2.4%	6.85	4.15	—
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	7	45	202	38	14	6	70%	4.5	18.8%	6.9%	11.9%	3.0%	6.85	4.09	—
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	40	169	41	10	1	0%	1.2	19.2%	6.6%	12.6%	0.7%	3.38	2.69	—
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	40	169	41	10	1	0%	1.2	24.3%	5.9%	18.3%	0.6%	3.38	2.12	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	6	0	8	30	12	0	1	0%	1.3	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	3.3%	2.35	1.55	+0.3
2020	29	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	6	0	8	30	12	0	1	0%	1.3	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	3.3%	2.35	1.67	+0.3
2021	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	0	18	82	17	4	2	0%	0.9	20.7%	4.9%	15.9%	2.4%	7.36	3.31	+0.3
2021	30	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	0	18	82	17	4	2	0%	0.9	20.7%	4.9%	15.9%	2.4%	7.36	3.32	+0.3
2022	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	27	125	22	11	0	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.7%	7.5%	0.0%	4.33	2.87	+0.5
2022	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	27	125	22	11	0	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	4.33	2.69	+0.6
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	78	0	72	290	64	15	4	0%	0.9	21.9%	5.0%	16.8%	1.5%	2.64	2.70	+1.6
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	78	0	72	290	64	15	4	0%	0.9	22.1%	5.2%	16.9%	1.4%	2.64	2.67	+1.6
2024	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	14	55	19	5	1	0%	1.0	34.5%	9.1%	25.5%	1.8%	3.14	2.33	+0.4
2024	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	14	55	19	5	1	0%	1.0	34.5%	9.1%	25.5%	1.8%	3.14	2.33	+0.4
2024	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	0	14	55	19	5	1	0%	1.0	34.5%	9.1%	25.5%	1.8%	3.14	2.40	+0.4
2025	34	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	54	1	60	268	49	15	2	2%	1.1	18.3%	5.6%	12.7%	0.7%	3.90	2.67	+1.4
2025	34	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	54	1	60	268	49	15	2	2%	1.1	18.3%	5.6%	12.7%	0.7%	3.90	2.67	+1.4
2025	34	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	54	1	60	268	49	15	2	2%	1.1	18.3%	5.6%	12.7%	0.7%	3.90	2.65	+1.4
2026	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	55	255	36	24	7	0%	1.0	13.0%	8.9%	4.0%	2.8%	4.75	4.65	-0.1
2026	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	55	255	36	24	7	0%	1.0	13.0%	8.9%	4.0%	2.8%	4.75	4.65	-0.1
2026	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	55	255	36	24	7	0%	1.0	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	2.7%	4.75	4.75	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			174	1	172	751	144	44	13	1%	1.0	19.2%	5.9%	13.3%	1.7%	4.19	3.18	+2.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	NYY	55	0	58	245	36	20	6	0%	1.1	14.9%	8.1%	6.8%	2.5%	4.60	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	NYY	20	0	21	89	12	8	3	0%	1.1	13.8%	8.7%	5.1%	2.9%	4.84	5.01	-0.1
2029	38	MLB MLE	NYY	7	0	8	32	4	3	1	0%	1.1	12.7%	9.4%	3.2%	3.3%	5.20	5.44	-0.1
2028	37	MLB CTX	NYY	18	0	19	80	11	7	2	0%	1.1	13.8%	8.7%	5.1%	2.9%	4.84	5.01	-0.1
2029	38	MLB CTX	NYY	6	0	6	25	3	2	1	0%	1.0	12.7%	9.4%	3.2%	3.3%	5.20	5.44	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		198	1	197	856	158	53	16	1%	1.0	18.5%	6.2%	12.3%	1.9%	4.29	3.36	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	1	200	871	161	54	16	1%	1.0	18.5%	6.2%	12.3%	1.9%	4.29	3.36	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		306	8	351	1526	286	103	23	3%	1.1	18.7%	6.8%	12.0%	1.5%	4.18	3.22	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		174	5	200	869	163	59	13	3%	1.1	18.7%	6.8%	12.0%	1.5%	4.18	3.22	+2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 33 IPFIP 4.05 → 4.23 (+0.18)K% 14.3% → 12.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.29%	—	×0.860	12.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.16%	—	×0.900	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.05 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASt. Paul Saints · 11 IPFIP 2.43 → 2.82 (+0.39)K% 36.4% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.860	31.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×0.900	8.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.039	×1.100	2.41%

Result: FIP 2.43 → 2.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANashville Sounds · 19 IPFIP 2.61 → 2.87 (+0.26)K% 19.5% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.54%	—	×0.880	17.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.20%	—	×1.050	9.66%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.946	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 2.61 → 2.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAANashville Sounds · 9 IPFIP 1.69 → 1.98 (+0.29)K% 25.0% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.880	22.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.050	5.83%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.915	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.69 → 1.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AABiloxi Shuckers · 24 IPFIP 2.29 → 2.72 (+0.44)K% 21.2% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.15%	—	×0.810	17.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.100	8.46%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.018	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 2.29 → 2.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Carolina Mudcats · 16 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.62 (+0.76)K% 29.2% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.23%	—	×0.770	22.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.08%	—	×1.150	3.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.54%	÷1.082	×1.250	1.78%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 41 IPFIP 3.63 → 4.15 (+0.51)K% 18.7% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.68%	—	×0.810	15.13%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.100	7.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷1.088	×1.200	2.42%

Result: FIP 3.63 → 4.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Down East Wood Ducks · 4 IPFIP 7.53 → 7.45 (−0.08)K% 20.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.770	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.150	5.75%
HR / BF /BF	10.00%	÷1.393	×1.250	8.97%

Result: FIP 7.53 → 7.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Topa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	14.9%	8.1%	2.5%	—	5.01	13.8%	5.1%	21	+0.40	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	83
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	81
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	80
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	77
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	75
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	74
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	73
Leo Rosales R 2017 · 4.24 FIP	36	SU	4.24	7.8%	8.2%	1.4%	.203	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	130	71
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	71
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	70
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	69
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	69
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	68
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	64
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	64
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	63
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	62
Pete Walker R 2005 · 4.79 FIP	36	SU	4.79	12.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.261	4.45	19.6%	11.6%	30	-0.34	4.45	327	60
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	56
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	55

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	43	17.6%	7.5%	0.79	4.37
Manny Corpas ('13)	1.9	53	16.6%	7.0%	0.91	4.14
Jeremy Accardo ('12)	1.4	47	16.8%	9.1%	0.76	4.30
Ramon Troncoso ('13)	1.1	45	16.0%	8.5%	0.83	4.00
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*
Mark Dewey ('90-'96, 3 WAR*)	1.2	42	18.7%*	9.6%*	0.80*	3.89*
Bill Landrum ('86-'93, 4 WAR*)	1.8	60	18.2%*	8.1%*	0.64*	3.86*