Justin Topa
P
Minnesota Twins
+0.7
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
MLB
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA3.48
FIP3.63
xFIP4.53
SIERA4.54
K%20.1%
BB%6.6%
K-BB%13.5%
IP53
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL5555
CMD4545
K†4545
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p1010.3%
K%
p1013.7%
xwOBA vs
p230.344
CH+0.5 (13%)
CT (23%)
SI (48%)
SL (17%)
FB-0.8 (48%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 10 | 0 | 13 | 50 | 8 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.13 | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 10 | 7 | 45 | 202 | 38 | 14 | 6 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.4% | 6.85 | 4.13 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | 33 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 19.2% | 6.6% | 0.7% | 3.38 | 2.68 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 6 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 12 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 2.35 | — | — |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 20 | 0 | 18 | 82 | 17 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 7.36 | — | — |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 25 | 0 | 27 | 125 | 22 | 11 | 0 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 0.0% | 4.33 | 2.87 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 78 | 0 | 72 | 290 | 64 | 15 | 4 | 21.9% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 2.64 | 2.68 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 15 | 0 | 14 | 55 | 19 | 5 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.14 | — | — |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 54 | 1 | 60 | 268 | 49 | 15 | 2 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 0.8% | 3.90 | 2.68 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 11 | 0 | 9 | 39 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.15 | — | — |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | MIN | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 18.9% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 3.54 | 3.79 | +0.6 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 53 | 227 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 17.9% | 7.3% | 2.0% | 3.64 | 3.17 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 36 | 15 | 4 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 3.94 | 4.10 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | MIN | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 16.3% | 7.5% | 2.2% | 4.14 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | MIN | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 15.5% | 7.8% | 2.4% | 4.34 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 262 | 8 | 305 | 1310 | 258 | 85 | 17 | 19.7% | 6.5% | 1.3% | 4.07 | 2.98 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 172 | 5 | 200 | 859 | 169 | 56 | 11 | 19.7% | 6.5% | 1.3% | 4.07 | 2.98 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Topa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.79 | 18.9% | 6.7% | 1.9% | — | 4.27 | 16.4% | 8.8% | 138 | +0.48 | — | — | — |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 82 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 81 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 81 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 36 | SW | 3.44 | 12.4% | 6.0% | 1.1% | .328 | 3.24 | 14.8% | 10.4% | 69 | -0.20 | 3.00 | 119 | 80 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 80 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 79 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.63 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 5.47 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.84 | 4.63 | 172 | 79 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2025 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 79 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.21 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.44 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.23 | 3.21 | 225 | 78 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.50 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.6% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 140 | 77 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 77 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 77 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.71 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 244 | 76 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.71 | 9.2% | 5.0% | 1.4% | .319 | 4.46 | 15.3% | 7.3% | 78 | +0.75 | 3.32 | 209 | 75 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.03 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.03 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.25 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.22 | 3.01 | 119 | 75 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.32 | 12.9% | 7.7% | 0.6% | .250 | 4.65 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 29 | +1.33 | 3.32 | 119 | 74 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 74 |
| Sergio Mitre R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.85 | 9.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.54 | 11.8% | 5.3% | 103 | -0.31 | 4.54 | 156 | 74 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.28 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 1.0% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 172 | 74 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.20 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 0.8% | .300 | 3.38 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 141 | +0.18 | 2.49 | 174 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.