Justin Topa
P
Minnesota Twins
Age 35
RHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 88
ERA3.78
FIP3.80
K%16.0%
BB%6.8%
K-BB%9.2%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p3493.4
Whiff%
p1014.1%
K%
p1013.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.376
CH+0.5 (14%)
CT (26%)
SI (43%)
SL (17%)
FB-0.8 (43%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 13 | 50 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.0% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 2.13 | 2.51 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 0 | 13 | 50 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 16.0% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 2.13 | 2.55 | — |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 7 | 45 | 202 | 38 | 14 | 6 | 70% | 4.5 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 2.2% | 6.85 | 4.05 | — |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 10 | 7 | 45 | 202 | 38 | 14 | 6 | 70% | 4.5 | 18.8% | 6.9% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 6.85 | 4.09 | — |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.2% | 6.6% | 12.6% | 0.6% | 3.38 | 2.66 | — |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.3% | 5.9% | 18.3% | 0.6% | 3.38 | 2.12 | — |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 6 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 3.3% | 2.35 | 1.55 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 6 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 3.3% | 2.35 | 1.67 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 0 | 18 | 82 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.7% | 4.9% | 15.9% | 2.4% | 7.36 | 3.31 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 30 | MIX | 4 levels | 20 | 0 | 18 | 82 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.7% | 4.9% | 15.9% | 2.4% | 7.36 | 3.32 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 27 | 125 | 22 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 4.33 | 2.87 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 27 | 125 | 22 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 4.33 | 2.69 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 78 | 0 | 72 | 290 | 64 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.9% | 5.0% | 16.8% | 1.5% | 2.64 | 2.72 | +1.7 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 78 | 0 | 72 | 290 | 64 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.1% | 5.2% | 16.9% | 1.4% | 2.64 | 2.67 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 0 | 14 | 55 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.5% | 9.1% | 25.5% | 1.8% | 3.14 | 2.33 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 0 | 14 | 55 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 34.5% | 9.1% | 25.5% | 1.8% | 3.14 | 2.40 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 54 | 1 | 60 | 268 | 49 | 15 | 2 | 2% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 12.7% | 0.7% | 3.90 | 2.67 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 54 | 1 | 60 | 268 | 49 | 15 | 2 | 2% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 12.7% | 0.7% | 3.90 | 2.65 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 41 | 0 | 38 | 181 | 21 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 0.9 | 11.5% | 10.6% | 0.8% | 3.6% | 5.45 | 5.44 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | TOR | 38 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 3.78 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | TOR | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 27 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 2.2% | 3.78 | 3.80 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 78 | 349 | 48 | 29 | 10 | — | — | 13.7% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 4.59 | 4.60 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 59 | 249 | 48 | 29 | 10 | — | — | 19.3% | 11.9% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 6.07 | 5.10 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 34 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 43 | 0 | 46 | 192 | 28 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.6% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 22 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.4% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.18 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | TOR | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.6% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 4.79 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | TOR | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.4% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.18 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 316 | 1 | 320 | 1373 | 237 | 94 | 31 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 2.2% | 4.37 | 3.74 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 198 | 1 | 200 | 859 | 148 | 59 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 2.2% | 4.37 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 292 | 8 | 334 | 1452 | 274 | 100 | 22 | 3% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 1.5% | 4.23 | 3.23 | +8.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 175 | 5 | 200 | 869 | 164 | 60 | 13 | 3% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 1.5% | 4.23 | 3.23 | +5.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Justin Topa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.79 | 17.8% | 5.9% | 1.9% | — | 4.98 | 14.7% | 6.3% | 137 | +1.19 | — | — | — |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 83 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 82 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 81 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 80 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.63 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 140 | 80 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 79 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.54 | 12.4% | 6.0% | 1.3% | .328 | 3.35 | 14.8% | 10.4% | 69 | -0.19 | 3.03 | 119 | 79 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 79 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.76 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 244 | 79 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 78 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 78 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.17 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.50 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.33 | 3.17 | 225 | 77 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 75 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.32 | 12.9% | 7.7% | 0.6% | .250 | 4.56 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 29 | +1.24 | 3.32 | 119 | 75 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 75 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.76 | 9.2% | 5.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 4.35 | 15.3% | 7.3% | 78 | +0.59 | 3.21 | 209 | 74 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.16 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 0.7% | .300 | 3.49 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 141 | +0.33 | 2.51 | 174 | 73 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.26 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 1.0% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 172 | 73 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 72 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 15.6% | 7.7% | 1.05 | 4.47 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |