Justin Topa — OGILVIE

Justin Topa P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 35 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10395vR 86

ERA3.64

FIP3.65

K%16.1%

BB%6.6%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p1016.6%

p1013.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.367

CH+0.5 (13%)

CT (26%)

SI (41%)

SL (20%)

FB-0.8 (41%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	13	50	8	3	0	0%	1.3	16.0%	6.0%	10.0%	0.0%	2.13	2.51	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	13	50	8	3	0	0%	1.3	16.0%	6.0%	10.0%	0.0%	2.13	2.55	—
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	7	45	202	38	14	6	70%	4.5	15.1%	7.9%	7.3%	2.4%	6.85	4.15	—
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	7	45	202	38	14	6	70%	4.5	18.8%	6.9%	11.9%	3.0%	6.85	4.09	—
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	40	169	41	10	1	0%	1.2	19.2%	6.6%	12.6%	0.7%	3.38	2.69	—
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	40	169	41	10	1	0%	1.2	24.3%	5.9%	18.3%	0.6%	3.38	2.12	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	6	0	8	30	12	0	1	0%	1.3	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	3.3%	2.35	1.55	+0.3
2020	29	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	6	0	8	30	12	0	1	0%	1.3	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	3.3%	2.35	1.67	+0.3
2021	30	MIX MLE	4 levels	20	0	18	82	17	4	2	0%	0.9	20.7%	4.9%	15.9%	2.4%	7.36	3.31	+0.3
2021	30	MIX RAW	4 levels	20	0	18	82	17	4	2	0%	0.9	20.7%	4.9%	15.9%	2.4%	7.36	3.32	+0.3
2022	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	0	27	125	22	11	0	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.7%	7.5%	0.0%	4.33	2.87	+0.5
2022	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	0	27	125	22	11	0	0%	1.1	17.6%	8.8%	8.8%	0.0%	4.33	2.69	+0.6
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	78	0	72	290	64	15	4	0%	0.9	21.9%	5.0%	16.8%	1.5%	2.64	2.70	+1.6
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	78	0	72	290	64	15	4	0%	0.9	21.9%	5.0%	16.8%	1.5%	2.64	2.70	+1.6
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	78	0	72	290	64	15	4	0%	0.9	22.1%	5.2%	16.9%	1.4%	2.64	2.67	+1.6
2024	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	14	55	19	5	1	0%	1.0	34.5%	9.1%	25.5%	1.8%	3.14	2.33	+0.4
2024	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	14	55	19	5	1	0%	1.0	34.5%	9.1%	25.5%	1.8%	3.14	2.33	+0.4
2024	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	0	14	55	19	5	1	0%	1.0	34.5%	9.1%	25.5%	1.8%	3.14	2.40	+0.4
2025	34	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	54	1	60	268	49	15	2	2%	1.1	18.3%	5.6%	12.7%	0.7%	3.90	2.67	+1.4
2025	34	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	54	1	60	268	49	15	2	2%	1.1	18.3%	5.6%	12.7%	0.7%	3.90	2.67	+1.4
2025	34	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	54	1	60	268	49	15	2	2%	1.1	18.3%	5.6%	12.7%	0.7%	3.90	2.65	+1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			174	1	172	751	144	44	13	1%	1.0	19.2%	5.9%	13.3%	1.7%	4.19	3.18	+2.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	52	0	51	236	32	22	7	0%	1.0	12.3%	8.9%	3.4%	3.0%	4.24	4.82	-0.2
YTD	35	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	52	0	51	236	32	22	7	0%	1.0	12.3%	8.9%	3.4%	3.0%	4.24	4.82	-0.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	AAA RAW	NYY	27	0	29	128	17	10	3	0%	1.1	13.3%	7.8%	5.5%	2.3%	2.17	4.25	—
2026	35	MLB RAW	NYY	25	0	22	108	15	12	4	0%	0.9	13.9%	11.1%	2.8%	3.7%	6.95	5.37	-0.2
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	NYY	25	0	22	108	15	12	4	0%	0.9	13.9%	11.1%	2.8%	3.7%	6.95	5.37	-0.2
ROS	35	MLB MLE	NYY	5	0	5	23	4	1	0	0%	1.1	16.1%	6.6%	9.5%	2.0%	3.64	3.65	+0.1
ROS	35	MLB CTX	NYY	5	0	5	21	3	1	0	0%	1.0	16.1%	6.6%	9.5%	2.0%	3.64	3.65	+0.1
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	56	259	36	23	7	—	—	13.8%	9.1%	4.7%	2.9%	4.18	4.71	-0.1
FULL	35	MLB A+C	NYY	—	—	27	115	36	23	7	—	—	30.9%	20.3%	10.5%	6.4%	8.61	6.61	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	NYY	50	0	52	220	35	17	6	0%	1.0	15.8%	7.8%	8.0%	2.6%	4.42	4.57	-0.0
2028	37	MLB MLE	NYY	43	0	46	192	28	16	6	0%	1.1	14.7%	8.4%	6.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.97	-0.2
2029	38	MLB MLE	NYY	37	0	39	165	22	15	6	0%	1.1	13.5%	9.1%	4.4%	3.5%	5.14	5.40	-0.4
2027	36	MLB CTX	NYY	45	0	47	198	31	15	5	0%	1.0	15.8%	7.8%	8.0%	2.6%	4.42	4.57	-0.0
2028	37	MLB CTX	NYY	35	0	37	156	23	13	5	0%	1.1	14.7%	8.4%	6.3%	3.0%	4.75	4.97	-0.2
2029	38	MLB CTX	NYY	26	0	27	114	15	10	4	0%	1.0	13.5%	9.1%	4.4%	3.5%	5.14	5.40	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		285	1	288	1244	217	84	27	0%	1.0	17.5%	6.8%	10.7%	2.2%	4.38	3.69	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		198	1	200	863	151	58	19	0%	1.0	17.5%	6.8%	10.7%	2.2%	4.38	3.69	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		303	8	347	1507	282	102	23	3%	1.1	18.7%	6.7%	12.0%	1.5%	4.09	3.22	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		174	5	200	868	162	58	13	3%	1.1	18.7%	6.7%	12.0%	1.5%	4.09	3.22	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Topa (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.78	17.8%	5.9%	1.9%	—	4.94	14.7%	6.4%	137	+1.16	—	—	—
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	87
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	86
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	83
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	82
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	81
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	80
Ramon E Ramirez R 2017 · 3.49 FIP	35	SU	3.49	14.0%	5.8%	1.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	140	80
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	79
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	244	79
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	79
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	78
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	77
Blaine Boyer R 2016 · 3.69 FIP	35	SU	3.69	9.2%	5.0%	1.4%	.319	4.39	15.3%	7.3%	78	+0.70	3.24	209	76
Luis Ayala R 2015 · 3.03 FIP	37	SU	3.03	19.7%	5.0%	1.7%	.270	3.27	12.1%	5.9%	57	+0.24	3.03	119	76
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	75
Rudy Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.31 FIP	35	SU	3.31	12.9%	7.7%	0.6%	.250	4.72	15.8%	8.7%	29	+1.41	3.31	119	75
Logan Kensing R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	35	SU	3.28	16.5%	7.9%	1.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	2.73	172	74
Matt Belisle R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	35	SU	3.18	16.8%	8.7%	0.7%	.300	3.50	18.8%	13.8%	141	+0.32	2.51	174	74
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	73
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	49	15.7%	7.6%	1.04	4.44
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86