Ricky Castro — OGILVIE

Ricky Castro P St. Paul Saints

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.7 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%18.0%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%9.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	62	259	70	19	6	67%	4.2	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.8%	3.90	3.99	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	62	259	70	19	6	67%	4.2	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.8%	3.90	3.99	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	62	259	70	19	6	67%	4.2	27.0%	7.3%	19.7%	2.3%	3.90	3.02	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	28	15	95	414	93	31	14	54%	3.4	18.2%	8.2%	10.0%	4.1%	5.48	4.87	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	28	15	95	414	93	31	14	54%	3.4	18.2%	8.2%	10.0%	4.1%	5.48	4.87	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	28	15	95	414	93	31	14	54%	3.4	22.5%	7.5%	15.0%	3.4%	5.48	4.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	32	13	79	368	87	34	17	41%	2.5	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	5.2%	5.81	5.40	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	32	13	79	368	87	34	17	41%	2.5	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	5.2%	5.81	5.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	MIN	11	1	23	111	24	8	3	9%	2.1	21.6%	7.2%	14.4%	2.7%	6.35	3.67	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	MIN	21	12	56	257	63	26	14	57%	2.7	24.5%	10.1%	14.4%	5.4%	5.59	5.30	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	MIN	6	0	6	27	5	2	1	0%	1.1	18.0%	8.1%	9.9%	3.3%	4.82	4.82	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	85	395	92	36	18	—	—	23.3%	9.2%	14.1%	4.5%	5.74	5.35	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIN	80	0	84	357	66	29	12	0%	1.1	18.4%	8.2%	10.3%	3.4%	4.79	4.80	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	78	0	82	346	64	29	12	0%	1.1	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.4%	4.81	4.85	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	75	0	78	331	68	25	12	0%	1.0	20.5%	7.7%	12.8%	3.6%	4.72	4.68	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIN	70	0	74	311	63	25	12	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	3.7%	4.79	4.84	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIN	34	0	36	152	28	12	5	0%	1.1	18.4%	8.2%	10.3%	3.4%	4.80	4.81	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	49	0	51	215	40	18	7	0%	1.0	18.6%	8.3%	10.3%	3.5%	4.82	4.86	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	54	0	57	241	49	18	9	0%	1.1	20.5%	7.7%	12.8%	3.6%	4.73	4.69	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIN	56	0	59	249	50	20	9	0%	1.1	20.2%	8.0%	12.2%	3.8%	4.80	4.85	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		194	0	204	860	168	69	31	0%	1.0	19.5%	8.0%	11.5%	3.6%	4.79	4.42	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	68	30	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.0%	11.5%	3.6%	4.79	4.42	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		75	38	237	1041	200	88	43	51%	3.2	19.2%	8.5%	10.7%	4.2%	5.17	4.84	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	32	200	880	169	75	37	51%	3.2	19.2%	8.5%	10.7%	4.2%	5.17	4.84	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricky Castro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	18.0%	8.1%	3.3%	—	4.78	19.1%	11.1%	245	-0.04	—	—	—
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	87
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	84
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	83
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	83
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	81
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	80
David Griffin R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	16.6%	9.8%	3.2%	.285	5.85	13.9%	4.7%	81	+1.14	4.43	239	80
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	79
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	79
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	79
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	79
Kolton Mahoney R 2018 · 3.93 FIP	26	SW	3.93	13.8%	5.6%	2.3%	.328	3.56	19.4%	10.6%	109	-0.37	3.56	302	79
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	79
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	78
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	78
Kurt Heyer R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	14.1%	6.7%	2.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	178	78
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	78
Jake Walkinshaw R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP-	4.61	17.5%	6.4%	4.0%	.296	4.84	13.0%	3.5%	116	+0.23	2.84	307	78
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.67	18.2%	7.1%	248	-0.15	4.29	360	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	78	19.1%	8.0%	1.35	4.79
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59