Ricky Castro
P
Wichita Wind Surge
+0.4
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.6 · 2028
ERA4.68
FIP4.68
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.4%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%11.8%
IP84
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2028
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 15 | 10 | 62 | 259 | 70 | 19 | 6 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 3.90 | 4.02 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 28 | 15 | 95 | 414 | 93 | 31 | 14 | 18.2% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 5.48 | 4.87 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 3 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 1.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 84 | 356 | 73 | 31 | 12 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.68 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 90 | 377 | 78 | 31 | 13 | 20.6% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.47 | 4.37 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 88 | 370 | 76 | 32 | 12 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.65 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 77 | 32 | 12 | 20.7% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.65 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 16 | 86 | 365 | 75 | 31 | 12 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.67 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 84 | 354 | 72 | 31 | 12 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.72 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | MIN | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 69 | 30 | 12 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.75 | 4.80 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | MIN | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 72 | 27 | 12 | 21.9% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 4.67 | 4.61 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 68 | 26 | 11 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 4.69 | 4.71 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | MIN | 13 | 13 | 70 | 298 | 63 | 25 | 11 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 4.77 | 4.82 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | MIN | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 59 | 24 | 11 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | MIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 54 | 24 | 10 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 4.99 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 46 | 25 | 164 | 694 | 133 | 56 | 25 | 19.2% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 4.73 | 4.52 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 31 | 200 | 848 | 163 | 68 | 31 | 19.2% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 4.73 | 4.52 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ricky Castro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.68 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.4% | — | 4.66 | 20.6% | 12.1% | 262 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 90 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 89 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 88 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 87 |
| Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 21.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.90 | 19.9% | 5.6% | 92 | +1.11 | 3.79 | 223 | 85 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 85 |
| Brett Sears R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 85 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 85 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.94 | 22.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 3.78 | 22.0% | 12.8% | 135 | -0.16 | 3.62 | 224 | 84 |
| Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 84 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 83 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.89 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .327 | 3.06 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.83 | 2.32 | 1,443 | 83 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 83 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 83 |
| Jason Forjet R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.48 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.7% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 197 | 82 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.78 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .262 | 3.93 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 127 | -0.85 | 3.50 | 472 | 82 |
| Forrest Snow R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.10 | 16.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .263 | 4.13 | 21.8% | 14.2% | 256 | -0.97 | 3.03 | 406 | 82 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 82 |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 82 |
| Trent Baker R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 420 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $10M | +$4M | ||