Ricky Castro

P St. Paul Saints

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	15	10	62	3.90	3.02	27.0%	7.3%	—	K 20.4% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.99
2025	25	AAMIN	28	15	95	5.48	4.03	22.5%	7.5%	—	K 18.2% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.87
2026	26	MIX2 levels	33	13	83	5.75	5.03	23.6%	9.3%	—	K 20.0% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.39
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIN	7	0	7	5.11	5.11	19.2%	8.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBMIN	25	0	26	5.08	5.12	19.5%	8.6%	-0.2
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBMIN	31	0	33	5.12	5.19	19.5%	8.9%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control55Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsAaron Northcraft (age 26) · Roberto Gómez (age 27) · Josh Roeder (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.11

FIP5.11

K%19.2%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%10.8%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	62	259	70	19	6	67%	4.2	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.8%	3.90	3.99	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	10	62	259	70	19	6	67%	4.2	20.4%	8.6%	11.8%	2.8%	3.90	3.99	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	10	62	259	70	19	6	67%	4.2	27.0%	7.3%	19.7%	2.3%	3.90	3.02	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	28	15	95	414	93	31	14	54%	3.4	18.2%	8.2%	10.0%	4.1%	5.48	4.87	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	28	15	95	414	93	31	14	54%	3.4	18.2%	8.2%	10.0%	4.1%	5.48	4.87	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Wichita Wind Surge	28	15	95	414	93	31	14	54%	3.4	22.5%	7.5%	15.0%	3.4%	5.48	4.03	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	13	83	386	91	36	18	39%	2.5	20.0%	8.8%	11.2%	5.2%	5.75	5.39	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	13	83	386	91	36	18	39%	2.5	20.0%	8.8%	11.2%	5.2%	5.75	5.39	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	13	83	386	91	36	18	39%	2.5	23.6%	9.3%	14.2%	4.7%	5.75	5.03	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIN	7	0	7	30	6	2	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	8.4%	10.8%	4.0%	5.11	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	59	0	62	262	51	23	10	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.6%	10.9%	4.0%	5.08	5.12	-0.4
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	53	0	56	235	46	21	10	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	4.1%	5.12	5.19	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	25	0	26	110	21	9	4	0%	1.0	19.5%	8.6%	10.9%	4.0%	5.08	5.12	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	31	0	33	139	27	12	6	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	4.1%	5.12	5.19	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	250	49	22	10	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	4.0%	5.10	4.78	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	74	34	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	4.0%	5.10	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		76	38	241	1059	205	90	44	50%	3.2	19.4%	8.5%	10.8%	4.2%	5.16	4.84	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	32	200	880	170	75	37	50%	3.2	19.4%	8.5%	10.8%	4.2%	5.16	4.84	+0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 60 IPFIP 5.33 → 5.78 (+0.46)K% 24.4% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.36%	—	×0.860	20.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.18%	—	×0.900	9.16%
HR / BF /BF	5.45%	÷1.000	×1.100	6.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.33 → 5.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 23 IPFIP 3.67 → 4.41 (+0.73)K% 21.6% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.62%	—	×0.810	17.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.21%	—	×1.100	7.93%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.24%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.67 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 95 IPFIP 4.01 → 4.87 (+0.86)K% 22.5% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.46%	—	×0.810	18.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.49%	—	×1.100	8.24%
HR / BF /BF	3.38%	÷0.986	×1.200	4.11%

Result: FIP 4.01 → 4.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 33 IPFIP 3.22 → 3.83 (+0.61)K% 22.0% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.99%	—	×0.770	16.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.38%	—	×1.150	7.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.13%	÷1.191	×1.250	2.23%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 3.22 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 29 IPFIP 2.78 → 4.19 (+1.41)K% 33.1% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.05%	—	×0.740	24.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.47%	—	×1.180	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	2.54%	÷0.962	×1.300	3.43%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.78 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricky Castro (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	19.2%	8.4%	4.0%	—	5.15	19.5%	10.8%	118	+0.04	—	—	—
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	81
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	81
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	80
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	78
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	77
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	77
Grant Judkins R 2024 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	16.8%	9.1%	4.2%	.264	5.80	14.9%	5.8%	124	+0.67	5.13	322	77
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	77
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2017 · 4.61 FIP	27	SW	4.61	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.70	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.09	3.22	242	76
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	76
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	76
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	76
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	75
TJ Shook R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	26	SW	4.15	23.7%	8.7%	3.5%	.317	3.92	20.0%	11.1%	107	-0.23	3.35	452	75
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	75
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	75
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	74
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	74
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	74
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	19.4%	8.6%	1.55	5.10
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Pete Ladd ('79-'86, 0 WAR*)	1.4	72	24.6%*	7.8%*	1.53*	4.42*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*